2024 Presidential Election | ELECTION DAY 2024
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The nice thing is that in a truncated campaign the honeymoon has a disproportunate positive impact.
The campaign needs to highlight her critical role in the hostage negotiations over the weekend. I agree that the VP announcement and the convention should keep the honeymoon going at least through Labor Day.
Next comes the debate with Trump or an empty chair that is scheduled for Sept 10 and with a good performance that should extend the honeymoon until October.
Also, a successfully negotiated cease fire in Gaza would be an added bonus.
At that point if she can avoid the traditional negative "October surprise", then I think there is a very good chance our democracy will be saved in November.
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While I do agree that the initial sugar high of the Harris nomination will subside, and while I fully believe that there will be ebbs and flows and good days and bad days for the Harris campaign, I think that the organic, grassroots momentum that the campaign has, has legitimate bonafide sustainable staying power. The jaw-dropping amount of money that they've raised (much of it from brand-new, first-time campaign donors), the incredible number of new grassroots campaign volunteers that have signed up in battleground states, the number of new voter registrations, and the fact that the campaign has taken social media (especially TikTok) by storm, all combine to make me think that the campaign has not even come close to reaching its peak or its upside.
On the other hand, the Trump campaign is old, angry, bitter, vengeance-driven, and tried- and has probably hit its ceiling. The fact that such a substantial percentage of Republican voters continued to turn out to cast anti-Trump votes in the GOP primary even long after Nikki Haley had surrendered, tells me that there is a not-insignificant number of Republicans who may just sit the presidential ballot out (and, of course, perhaps a few will even vote for Harris).
This is definitely going to be a tense, closely-contested, hard-fought election. No doubt about it. There is a very, very, very real chance that Trump could win it. But I don't think he will. Judging strictly by the aforementioned fundraising numbers, volunteer sign-ups, GOTV efforts, and new voter registrations, I think we are going to see a renewed and energized wave of Democratic enthusiasm and turnout that we haven't seen since the 2008 election. And when Democrats are enthused and excited, they turn out, and when they turn out, they win.
On the other hand, the Trump campaign is old, angry, bitter, vengeance-driven, and tried- and has probably hit its ceiling. The fact that such a substantial percentage of Republican voters continued to turn out to cast anti-Trump votes in the GOP primary even long after Nikki Haley had surrendered, tells me that there is a not-insignificant number of Republicans who may just sit the presidential ballot out (and, of course, perhaps a few will even vote for Harris).
This is definitely going to be a tense, closely-contested, hard-fought election. No doubt about it. There is a very, very, very real chance that Trump could win it. But I don't think he will. Judging strictly by the aforementioned fundraising numbers, volunteer sign-ups, GOTV efforts, and new voter registrations, I think we are going to see a renewed and energized wave of Democratic enthusiasm and turnout that we haven't seen since the 2008 election. And when Democrats are enthused and excited, they turn out, and when they turn out, they win.
TarHeelGrad
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I hope the liberal media, in an attempt to appear unbiased, doesn't start picking nits with respect to Harris, yet give Trump a free pass to pretty much do and say whatever he wants.
lightbluenc
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Agree. Like if Harris answers one question poorly or has a misstep, equating that to a half hour of racist comments directed at black journalists isnt the same thing.
lawtig02
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As the PSA guys said recently, even if weird doesn’t have staying power, boring and stale probably do. Trump’s just tedious at the point. Nothing new, nothing interesting. Just the same old boring, tired, self-indulgent litany of grievances. Ain’t nobody got time for that.
LeoBloom
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Hopefully they are coordinated in a fashion to keep the news cycle fresh. It seems like that is what’s happening.
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Totally agree. Everyone who isn't a dyed-in-the-wool MAGA is tired of the anger, bitterness, chaos, etc. I know that it's popular to talk about how dumb and uninformed the average American voter is, but ultimately I think that unites the most important part of the electorate is that hope, optimism, forward-looking, and "new" are hallmark American themes that resonate. And I think that's what swing voters are going to choose.
uncgriff
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There is nothing, not one word that trump or Vance can say that will add to their vote total at this point. It is what it is.
Harris has major upside potential if she can convince the young people and the people who were completely disaffected by their choice a month ago that there is a positive vote they can place and not just a negative anti trump vote. Obviously she has to avoid major gaffes but she has a lot of low hanging fruit to go after vis a vis trump.
I am also less concerned about her performance in the presidential primary 4 years ago. She ain't having to stand out on a crowded stage of good debaters. She only has to compete against the muddled mind and tired rhetoric of trump.
Harris has major upside potential if she can convince the young people and the people who were completely disaffected by their choice a month ago that there is a positive vote they can place and not just a negative anti trump vote. Obviously she has to avoid major gaffes but she has a lot of low hanging fruit to go after vis a vis trump.
I am also less concerned about her performance in the presidential primary 4 years ago. She ain't having to stand out on a crowded stage of good debaters. She only has to compete against the muddled mind and tired rhetoric of trump.
Carolina Fever
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If Taylor Swift came out and said vote for Harris and all the Dems, the Dems would win everything by a landslide.
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I’d be stunned if that doesn’t happen during the DNC.
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I'm an atheist but I wouldn't mind it if someone were to start a meme:
Everyone is saying that it is a miracle that Kamala's campaign has taken off like a rocket and there can be only explanation:
God has sent us Kamala Harris to save America from the evildoers !!!
Everyone is saying that it is a miracle that Kamala's campaign has taken off like a rocket and there can be only explanation:
God has sent us Kamala Harris to save America from the evildoers !!!
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No
Satan has sent Kamala to steal America from White Evangelicals
4thgenheel
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UNCRx85
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Georgia Republicans Seek to Ban Geoff Duncan from Party
Georgia Republican party chair Josh McKoon sent former Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan (R) an open letter demanding that he “cease referring to yourself as a Republican” and said the party would take actions to “protect
politicalwire.com
Georgia Republican party chair Josh McKoon sent former Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan (R) an open letter demanding that he “cease referring to yourself as a Republican” and said the party would take actions to “protect the Republican brand” from his influence, the Atlanta Journal Constitution reports.
lawtig02
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Georgia Republicans Seek to Ban Geoff Duncan from Party
Georgia Republican party chair Josh McKoon sent former Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan (R) an open letter demanding that he “cease referring to yourself as a Republican” and said the party would take actions to “protect
Georgia Republican party chair Josh McKoon sent former Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan (R) an open letter demanding that he “cease referring to yourself as a Republican” and said the party would take actions to “protect the Republican brand” from his influence, the Atlanta Journal Constitution reports.
5 point Democratic lead in a Rasmussen poll is a surprise.
superrific
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Not to me, or at least not that much. Rasmussen has, in the last couple of cycles, been a little bit less of a GOP shill in the past. I think the bad press endangered the business -- if a pollster can't be relied on, what good is he? I think he's probably still favorable to the GOP but it's not like what it was.
Meanwhile, could Kamala's lead be 5 or 7 or 8? I think so. Momentum like this takes a little while to fully seep into poll numbers. I've been predicting (loosely -- there's little methodology here) that her poll numbers would steadily rising up to the DNC. I've thought they could peak at +10 or +11, though that might be a little high. Possible, though.
It does put the Michigan +12 number reported earlier on this thread or another one in better perspective. That's probably a little on the high side, but I could believe Michigan +8