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2024 Presidential Election | ELECTION DAY 2024

  • Thread starter Thread starter nycfan
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DougDaBroadcasta said:
My FB post regarding tomorrow:

A couple things to remind you of, for the next 48 hours.

1. Trump will announce himself the victor, regardless of what votes are still to be counted, no later than 11pm tomorrow. There will be no evidence of his victory. He will claim the win, do his jerking off dance, and go off stage. Once he goes off stage, we will not see him in public again until all of the states report. He'll tweet and maybe do a Fox News phone-in, but you won't see him until results are official. We COULD know the winner as soon as mid-day Wednesday at the earliest, barring a blowout, but it will probably be Thursday, if not later. Do not believe what either side says until the swing states report.

2. States control elections. Every state has different rules. Some allow for votes to be counted prior to Election Day as they come in (Florida). Some do not allow a single vote to be counted prior to election day (Georgia, Pennsylvania). And some allow for multiple days for mail-in ballots to arrive. This is why some will be reporting slower than others. This isn't a political stunt--it's a difference in state constitutions. Do not listen to the cronies say that it's proof there is cheating. The only true cheating is if they stop counting votes before every single is counted because of some arbitrary deadline.

3. As you are watching the results come in tomorrow night, keep in mind two terms:
--the Red Mirage
--the Blue Wave
The Red Mirage is a result of rural voters living in smaller towns that traditionally vote Republican getting their votes registered before urban voters. Remember-all votes are counted by their local municipalities. Since they have less people there, those votes will be counted faster, and will be reported sooner to the state election boards. Trump and his cronies are going to harp on this all day tomorrow night and until the election is called. This is where their "legitimacy" that they won will come from when they celebrate "victory" Tuesday night. As cities and larger municipalities catch up on their votes, you will see the Blue Wave. Democrat votes will finally be reported as larger population blocks get reported. And 45 and his supports will say those votes are not legitimate and should be thrown out.

4. Chuck Todd said it best--if one of the candidates wins both North Carolina and Pennsylvania, it's all but a wrap. If it's split, every single vote from Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada and Arizona will be gone over with a microscope. Possibly Iowa, possibly....

5. Keep an eye on Florida. They have an abortion amendment on the ballot to restore pre-Dobbs rules, as well as medical marijuana, on their ballots. It is a stretch to say Kamala can win there, but if it's close, Trump's NYC rally could be the October surprise that costs him the election. Polls are showing Hispanics in Florida are pissed at him.

6. Regardless of the result, there are a lot of nervous and scared people right now. Be easy on each other.

7. Expect pockets of violence, no matter the actual victor. When states start reporting official results, people are going to get riled up when what they thought would happen didn't. Don't talk to people you don't know about who you voted for. You never know who is the person who is ready to act out because their candidate lost.

Prediction: Pennsylvania won't be known for days, since they cannot start counting votes until 7am on Election Day. When it is all counted, Kamala wins there, and that's where the violence will start. Trump's supporters on X have been on Bucks County Pennsylvania for what they think is shady stuff since early voting started. They know she's going to win that state, which is why they have spent the last two weeks sowing the seeds of doubt on right wing social media. This is where the mirage of "see, they've been cheating all along there" will come from. The Philadelphia area was one of the slowest areas to count votes in 2020 (along with the Phoenix and Atlanta areas). Bucks County is north of it. This will be the epicenter of the attempt of 45's supporters to overturn the election.

Be safe, friends.
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Nice write-up, Doug. I’ll add one thing:

Trump is not the president now as he was in 2020, he has far less resources and power - officially, politically and personally - than he did then. He’s not calling the shots now. He’ll file dozens of lawsuits and they’ll all be shot down, same as in 2020, even by his hand picked SCOTUS (he still might get dissents from the highly compromised Thomas and Alito, but that won’t be enough). Then we’ll have 4 long years to deal with his crimes and treason, all cases of which are well-developed and in process. Even Trump won’t be able to run out the clock this time, DJT stock will go to zero, which is pretty close to it’s true value, nobody will sign on to defend an increasingly demented and broke ass Trump (who doesn’t pay his bills even when he’s got money). Then he dies in prison. But I’ll still be ecstatic even if none of the above fever dream comes to pass, as long as Kamala wins. And I think she’s going to…
 
CFordUNC said:
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Harris plan looks good on paper, at least national debt wise, because it includes taxing unrealized capital gains, which the campaign has assured Mark Cuban isn't going to happen and was only included to balance the books.
 
ZenMode said:
Harris plan looks good on paper, at least national debt wise, because it includes taxing unrealized capital gains, which the campaign has assured Mark Cuban isn't going to happen and was only included to balance the books.
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Not to mention if they did tax unrealized gains, it’d be the single dumbest tax policy in the history of the United States.
 
HeelYeah2012 said:
Not to mention if they did tax unrealized gains, it’d be the single dumbest tax policy in the history of the United States.
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I assume you mean other than levying a massive national sales tax on top of all existing taxes, while simultaneously destroying our foreign trade partnerships and sending inflation through the roof? Surely you’d agree with the Nobel laureates that would be WAY dumber.
 
HeelYeah2012 said:
Not to mention if they did tax unrealized gains, it’d be the single dumbest tax policy in the history of the United States.
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It won't be if it starts at some large level-million or whatever. The problem with the present policy is that folks can increase their wealth by 50 billion dollars and not pay a penny
 
ZenMode said:
Harris plan looks good on paper, at least national debt wise, because it includes taxing unrealized capital gains, which the campaign has assured Mark Cuban isn't going to happen and was only included to balance the books.
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Lolololol there are like eleventy five Nobel winning economists and scores of Fortune 500 CEOs who all say that Harris’s economic plan is very good and that Trump’s would be calamitous, so as much as I want to think that our resident board recreational contrarian knows what he’s talking, I think I’m going to go with trusting the experts on this one.
 
mpaer said:
It won't be if it starts at some large level-million or whatever. The problem with the present policy is that folks can increase their wealth by 50 billion dollars and not pay a penny
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Right. And it’s not even a tax on all gains. Just making sure billionaires don’t pay less taxes on their new wealth than middle class Americans.

taxfoundation.org

Analysis of Harris’s Billionaire Minimum Tax on Unrealized Capital Gains

In her campaign for president, VP Kamala Harris has embraced all the tax increases President Biden proposed in the White House FY 2025 budget—including a new idea that would require taxpayers with net wealth above $100 million to pay a minimum tax on their unrealized capital gains from assets...
taxfoundation.org taxfoundation.org

“Under the new proposal, taxpayers with net wealth above $100 million would be required to pay a minimum effective tax rate of 25 percent on an expanded measure of income that includes their unrealized capital gains. Taxpayers would calculate their effective tax rate for the minimum tax and, if it fell below 25 percent, would owe additional taxes to bring their effective rate to 25 percent. Any additional taxes owed because of the minimum tax would be payable over nine years initially, and over five years going forward.“

Not that policy discussions are really relevant at this point, except to show how deceived Pub voters have been.
 
CFordUNC said:
Lolololol there are like eleventy five Nobel winning economists and scores of Fortune 500 CEOs who all say that Harris’s economic plan is very good and that Trump’s would be calamitous, so as much as I want to think that our resident board recreational contrarian knows what he’s talking, I think I’m going to go with trusting the experts on this one.
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It's beside the point, at least for me. Just more lies and more financial irresponsibility.
 
lawtig02 said:
Right. And it’s not even a tax on all gains. Just making sure billionaires don’t pay less taxes on their new wealth than middle class Americans.

taxfoundation.org

Analysis of Harris’s Billionaire Minimum Tax on Unrealized Capital Gains

In her campaign for president, VP Kamala Harris has embraced all the tax increases President Biden proposed in the White House FY 2025 budget—including a new idea that would require taxpayers with net wealth above $100 million to pay a minimum tax on their unrealized capital gains from assets...
taxfoundation.org taxfoundation.org

“Under the new proposal, taxpayers with net wealth above $100 million would be required to pay a minimum effective tax rate of 25 percent on an expanded measure of income that includes their unrealized capital gains. Taxpayers would calculate their effective tax rate for the minimum tax and, if it fell below 25 percent, would owe additional taxes to bring their effective rate to 25 percent. Any additional taxes owed because of the minimum tax would be payable over nine years initially, and over five years going forward.“

Not that policy discussions are really relevant at this point, except to show how deceived Pub voters have been.
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Always enjoy when the people making $50K, $100K, $150K a year are the ones who have the loudest opinions on things like wealth taxes, capital gains, etc. It’s like, settle down, pal, they ain’t talking about you.
 
ZenMode said:
It's beside the point, at least for me. Just more lies and more financial irresponsibility.
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Oh yeah, no, you’re definitely right and all of the smartest people in the world who study economics and all of the people who make their living running the biggest and wealthiest companies in the history of the universe don’t know what they’re talking about!
 
finesse said:
I understand and appreciate the fun of being a contrarian but you need a lot more practice. It's possible to do that and not fall into abject stupidity.
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Am I wrong? They put together an economic plan that IIRC was supposed to add $3 trillion to the debt (vs Trump's $7 trillion, I believe). That estimate is based on collecting taxes that they have NO intention of collecting. None.

Why lie? Why not come up with an economic plan where you don't have to lie to get support?
 
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ZenMode said:
Am I wrong? They put together an economic plan that IIRC was supposed to add $3 trillion to the debt (vs Trump's $7, I believe). That estimate is based on collecting taxes that they have NO intention of collecting. None.

Why lie? Why not come up with an economic plan where you don't have to lie to get support?
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Well the real answer is because for any economic plan to reduce the deficit it has to raise taxes, not lower them, and people simply will note vote for a politician who says they’re gonna raise taxes.
 
ZenMode said:
Am I wrong? They put together an economic plan that IIRC was supposed to add $3 trillion to the debt (vs Trump's $7, I believe). That estimate is based on collecting taxes that they have NO intention of collecting. None.

Why lie? Why no come up with an economic plan where you don't have to lie to get support?
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How would I know if you're wrong? I have no expertise in the matter and seriously doubt both yours and your good faith. I do wonder why you would be so dismissive of the comparison made by numerous people who do have that expertise. Essentially, you pretty much have to be delusional or dishonest. I don't see another scenario that doesn't include one or both.

For the record, since 1949, the Democrats have been better for the economy by every metric, although not every instance. I have no idea where the idea conservatives were better at that came from.
 
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