Congratulations to President Trump

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superrific said:
I don't remember what thread it was, but I advised a guy who was seeking a safe haven on his money not to rush into a short-term bond fund. Short-term bonds are not the play this time. Stocks are likely to be better, although if the shit hits the fan the way we think it will, correlations between asset classes will approach 1.
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Not sure when you gave that advice. But if anytime more than 3 months ago to about 15 months ago, you be wrong. Short term bonds (including interest) returned about 8+% YTD and about 12+% last 14 months.

Going forward, not as much. But still best place to be in fixed income. Yielding about 4.8% at about 60 basis points below par.

We have veered so far into investing, time to stop here or take it to Economy thread. But not a chance of ANY correlation if you are talking stocks vs bonds. Only happened once (2022) and maybe a few other times.
 
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Kraftyheel89 said:
Not sure when you gave that advice. But if anytime more than 3 months ago to about 15 months ago, you be wrong. Short term bonds (including interest) returned about 8+% YTD and about 12+% last 14 months.

Going forward, not as much. But still best place to be in fixed income. Yielding about 4.8% at about 60 basis points below par.

We have veered so far into investing, time to stop here or take it to Economy thread. But not a chance of ANY correlation if you are talking stocks vs bonds. Only happened once (2022) and maybe a few other times.
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I think it was about a month ago or less. All correlations go to one is a saying more than an empirical fact, but I was thinking about 2008 financial crisis, when I do believe that assets of all types were tanking relatively in unison. I might be misremembering slightly -- after all, a lot of fixed income back then was highly risky -- but I'm fairly sure there were so safe haven assets. Even money markets were potentially catastrophic.
 
Bonds actually did well in 2008. It was only the MBS bonds at issue of suprime, unless entire financial system collapses. And we were far closer to that than most know. Days to a few weeks tops.
 
Ramrouser said:
Axios reports that fashion company, Steve Madden, plans to slash its Chinese production 40-45% in response to Trump’s plans to impose Chinese tariffs.
This, just 3 days after Trump’s election.
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good channel, non sensational, would recommend.
 
Been a week and Country has not went into civil war….Amazing…Where is the current president at…Is Joe around what is going on…
 
1moretimeagain said:
Biden spoke at Arlington National Cemetery today. Why not just look simple things up, it takes virtually no time at all.
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Just watched it….He looks bad and I feel bad for him…But he is a man that has never did shit but be a Politician and made millions….Also spoke at a Funeral for a former Grand Wizard of the KKK…

Glad he gone…
 
Tar1978Heel said:
Just watched it….He looks bad and I feel bad for him…But he is a man that has never did shit but be a Politician and made millions….Also spoke at a Funeral for a former Grand Wizard of the KKK…

Glad he gone…
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Did you play football at UNC? Your grammar is atrocious, barely 6th grade level. I'm guessing UNC sports fan born in 1978, typical uneducated MAGA?
 
ICFree said:



good channel, non sensational, would recommend.
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So one company claiming to move labor means all the economist are wrong?

Plus, if this company spends the money it takes to move, do people think that their prices will come down? There's no way the cost comes down with the additional labor and capital to move.
 
45and47 said:
Can’t wait until he gets inaugurated. Shits about to change around here.
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Why would it?

I'd never support a person like trump, no matter the party or any personal gain.

If he deports 15 million and pushes his terrifs through, I believe the change might not be what you are expecting.
 
45and47 said:
Can’t wait until he gets inaugurated. Shits about to change around here.
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Also this mentality gets me.

I want leaders that work for the good of everyone. You appear to want to see those that are different than you suffer. Why is this? Why don't you want everyone to do well?

Why can't a rising tide lift all boats?
 
45and47 said:
Can’t wait until he gets inaugurated. Shits about to change around here.
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Already did. Mortgage rates are at 2-year highs due to Trump’s plan to blow up the deficits and cause increased inflation and most likely a recession.
This despite the Fed lowering interest rates.
 
A couple of things:

The Trump administration is not going to deport 15 million people. Logistically, that’s just not possible. As they have repeatedly stated, they will start with the 1.3M who have already been ordered to depart but have not done so. They’ll then move to the criminals and gang members. They’ll then focus on the recent arrivals who are burdening our cities and communities. They’re not going to deport everyone’s gardener or Nanny so relax. Plus, the situation is fluid so they can stop at any time if it is determined that it would hurt the economy by reducing the labor force but we have a long way to go before we reach that point.

No way Trump ends up putting 20% tariffs on all goods entering the US. As I think you know, he uses the threat of tariffs as leverage on our trading partners and adversaries. His tariffs will end up being targeted such as the EV vehicles from China.
 
Ramrouser said:
A couple of things:

The Trump administration is not going to deport 15 million people. Logistically, that’s just not possible. As they have repeatedly stated, they will start with the 1.3M who have already been ordered to depart but have not done so. They’ll then move to the criminals and gang members. They’ll then focus on the recent arrivals who are burdening our cities and communities. They’re not going to deport everyone’s gardener or Nanny so relax. Plus, the situation is fluid so they can stop at any time if it is determined that it would hurt the economy by reducing the labor force but we have a long way to go before we reach that point.

No way Trump ends up putting 20% tariffs on all goods entering the US. As I think you know, he uses the threat of tariffs as leverage on our trading partners and adversaries. His tariffs will end up being targeted such as the EV vehicles from China.
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I think you may be right on those "couple of things"

1 ) His mass deportation promise could be no different than his "build the wall and Mexico will pay for it" bullshit promise. He didn't build the wall. Mexico didn't pay for the wall. He did nothing that improved border security or improved our immigration policy . I expect we will be seeing more of the same as we did in his 1st term

2 ) His trade policy, including tariffs, will be as ( or more ) ineffective and harmful as it was in his 1st term
 
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