EXIT POLLS & TURNOUT DATA - The Red Shift

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rodoheel said:
I mean, unless the population of registered voters is at least 55% women, it's just a fact that the percentage of registered voters who haven't voted yet is going to be more men than women. So there are more potential male election day voters than female.

But beyond that, I'm fairly certain that women are more likely to vote early than men; I don't know if statistics confirm this, but just by nature women tend to be better planners and better at competing tasks early.

Per exit polling 52% of voters were women in 2020. I would be very surprised if we stayed all the way at 55% of voters being women through ED votes. My guess is that it ends up fairly close to 2020. If it's higher than 52%, that would be good news for Kamala IMO.
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If more women dont vote this year than 2020, I think everyone would be FLOORED
 
rodoheel said:
I mean, unless the population of registered voters is at least 55% women, it's just a fact that the percentage of registered voters who haven't voted yet is going to be more men than women. So there are more potential male election day voters than female.

But beyond that, I'm fairly certain that women are more likely to vote early than men; I don't know if statistics confirm this, but just by nature women tend to be better planners and better at competing tasks early.

Per exit polling 52% of voters were women in 2020. I would be very surprised if we stayed all the way at 55% of voters being women through ED votes. My guess is that it ends up fairly close to 2020. If it's higher than 52%, that would be good news for Kamala IMO.
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Based on the number of men in stores on Christmas Eve, I’d agree with you.
 
Calheel said:
I’ve posted this to you before, but I think high turnout favors Trump more than Harris. I’ve been rooting for a low turnout day.
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Depends who is turning out. Look at super's post. Urban voting and Latino voting seem to be very very strong right now

All I know is that the Nicolle Wallace folks on MSNBC right now dont seem concerned. It's all really retrospective of how good it was. And they have seen the exit polls....they cant unveil them until 5. But you know they have seen them
 
aGDevil2k said:
Depends who is turning out. Look at super's post. Urban voting and Latino voting seem to be very very strong right now

All I know is that the Nicolle Wallace folks on MSNBC right now dont seem concerned. It's all really retrospective of how good it was. And they have seen the exit polls....they cant unveil them until 5. But you know they have seen them
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Which comes back to the circular argument that you want the right voter turnout to be high.

But I am simply saying as an aggregate matter, without distinguish which group is which, it is not helpful to have high turnout today.
 
lightbluenc said:
These are the kids of folks I'm worried about the most. Those that just switch every year because they want any kind of change. They don't know what change, just something has to change.
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Yup. It’s the people who don’t realize or refuse to admit their life sucks because of their own life choices, not because of something a politician did.
 
Calheel said:
Based on the number of men in stores on Christmas Eve, I’d agree with you.
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The best way is to go is on the closest Sunday morning before Christmas as early as places open. Sales are already starting and the drunks and Christians are largely somewhere else.
 
Calheel said:
Which comes back to the circular argument that you want the right voter turnout to be high.

But I am simply saying as an aggregate matter, without distinguish which group is which, it is not helpful to have high turnout today.
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In NC, sure. In PA, maybe not
 
Calheel said:
Which comes back to the circular argument that you want the right voter turnout to be high.

But I am simply saying as an aggregate matter, without distinguish which group is which, it is not helpful to have high turnout today.
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That's maybe true. Like I said, there can be multiple non-linearities in the function. If you divide the electorate into five groups based on likelihood to vote, there's no reason a party can't be strong with groups 1 and 4.

I suspect that Kamala does best with highly engaged voters; trump does better with less engaged voters; and Kamala again best with the least engaged voters.
 
Calheel said:
But I am simply saying as an aggregate matter, without distinguish which group is which, it is not helpful to have high turnout today.
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You’re talking about a pre-Dobbs landscape. Things have changed. The higher the turnout today, the better.
 
superrific said:
That's maybe true. Like I said, there can be multiple non-linearities in the function. If you divide the electorate into five groups based on likelihood to vote, there's no reason a party can't be strong with groups 1 and 4.

I suspect that Kamala does best with highly engaged voters; trump does better with less engaged voters; and Kamala again best with the least engaged voters.
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Least engaged voters are Rogan Bros. And I am praying they stay home.

There are of course scenarios in which high turnout will work to Kamala's favor. Ultimately, we won't be able to dissect this election until after the fact. But based on what we know as of today, I am rooting for low turnout -- at least lower than 2020. If we are at 170 million plus for this election, I am very worried about what that portends.
 
aGDevil2k said:
If more women dont vote this year than 2020, I think everyone would be FLOORED
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Do you mean more total, or more as a percentage of the total electorate? The former is pretty much guaranteed, but I'm not sure the latter is.
 
quakerdevil said:
Exit poll in swing states, top issue

State of democracy 35
Economy 31
Abortion 14
Immigration 11
Foreign policy 4
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Would have hoped for abortion to be higher. But - probably not too bad over all? Probably depends on how many of the "democracy" folks voted for Trump vs how many of the "economy" folks voted for Harris.
 
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