EXIT POLLS & TURNOUT DATA - The Red Shift

[wmheel1287]

Harris could’ve offered change with the right campaign strategy. That’s the whole argument we’re having here. She embraced stasis and tried to ride it out with a risk averse strategy.

They were hoping people wouldn’t put Trump back in the White House for all the reasons highly informed voters have talked about for years. We don’t decide elections though.

I don't know about that. Of all the bullshit that was thrown at Harris I thought the one that made sense to me was "if youre different why aren't you doing it now". While I logically understand a VP doesn't set policy, I don't think that wall was going to be broken through.

 

[Mulberry Heel]

One thing that ought to be noted, as it's become clearer as more election results are posted, is just how much of this GOP victory was a victory for Trump and not necessarily the party as a whole. In state after state we're seeing Republican Senate or House candidates running well behind Trump and losing. The latest Republican to lose is Sam Brown in Nevada, who got over 70,000 fewer votes than Trump. And we're seeing this pattern over and over again across the country. It really does seem as if voters loved them some Trump but were much less enthusiastic about other members of his party. It's small comfort for the short term, but I do wonder if Trumpism will be transferable to any of the current crop of future GOP presidential contenders, including even people like Haley or Youngkin or Vance. I have doubts that any of them could bring out the vote as Trump did in 2020 and this year. But of course that doesn't excuse the failures of the Democrats or their need to connect with more voters.

 

[HeelYeah2012]

One thing that ought to be noted, as it's become clearer as more election results are posted, is just how much of this GOP victory was a victory for Trump and not necessarily the party as a whole. In state after state we're seeing Republican Senate or House candidates running well behind Trump and losing. The latest Republican to lose is Sam Brown in Nevada, who got over 70,000 fewer votes than Trump. And we're seeing this pattern over and over again across the country. It really does seem as if voters loved them some Trump but were much less enthusiastic about other members of his party. It's small comfort for the short term, but I do wonder if Trumpism will be transferable to any of the current crop of future GOP presidential contenders, including even people like Haley or Youngkin or Vance. I have doubts that any of them could bring out the vote as Trump did in 2020 and this year. But of course that doesn't excuse the failures of the Democrats or their need to connect with more voters.

No other candidate will be able to replicate Trump’s formula. He fired up and expanded the base like basically no one before him ever has

 

[BubbaOtis]

A good piece on 60 Minutes tonight on the post-mortem.

 

[finesse]

No other candidate will be able to replicate Trump’s formula. He fired up and expanded the base like basically no one before him ever has

So biggly he might get 50% of the vote. Pretty sure that would put him in the bottom half.

 

[gregh1]

One thing that ought to be noted, as it's become clearer as more election results are posted, is just how much of this GOP victory was a victory for Trump and not necessarily the party as a whole. In state after state we're seeing Republican Senate or House candidates running well behind Trump and losing. The latest Republican to lose is Sam Brown in Nevada, who got over 70,000 fewer votes than Trump. And we're seeing this pattern over and over again across the country. It really does seem as if voters loved them some Trump but were much less enthusiastic about other members of his party. It's small comfort for the short term, but I do wonder if Trumpism will be transferable to any of the current crop of future GOP presidential contenders, including even people like Haley or Youngkin or Vance. I have doubts that any of them could bring out the vote as Trump did in 2020 and this year. But of course that doesn't excuse the failures of the Democrats or their need to connect with more voters.

If it's vibes, can someone capture the Trump-vibes or will it be easy to ride anti-incumbent vibes?

 

[HeelYeah2012]

So biggly he might get 50% of the vote. Pretty sure that would put him in the bottom half.

He won the election despite being the most hated person in American politics history by the other side. All because he fired the base up so much and expanded the base to reach new voters who usually don’t vote.

 

[wmheel1287]

No other candidate will be able to replicate Trump’s formula. He fired up and expanded the base like basically no one before him ever has

Which is the single greatest condemnation of the American people in our lifetimes. He is such a singularly awful human being. That he motivates people is shocking to my core and will always remain that way.

He would literally rip off every single voter of his for $5 if given the opportunity and they love him for it.

 

[gregh1]

Harris did better in Swing states than the nation as a whole. The focus was largely on the swing states, so that at least says something about her (the dem) strategy being partly effective, no?

 

[Mulberry Heel]

If it's vibes, can someone capture the Trump-vibes or will it be easy to ride anti-incumbent vibes?

I don't think it's "vibes" as much as it is that Trump is more popular with certain segments of the population that many give him credit for. He increased his 2020 vote by 11 million more votes than in 2016, despite his first term being a total shitshow. And he'll get about that same number of votes this year. I don't see any of the current crop of Republicans having that kind of charisma or drawing power. The danger, imo, is that another new Republican will come along who does have something similar to Trump's charisma and ability to bring new voters into the party.

 

[finesse]

He won the election despite being the most hated person in American politics history by the other side. All because he fired the base up so much and expanded the base to reach new voters who usually don’t vote.

And ended up with about the same number of votes because the old and smart left at about the same rate as the young and dumb joined on. No doubt he won. Brag on that if you want to. He really is a great con man. I'll bet no candidate ever made as much money hawking junk to his followers.

 

[Mulberry Heel]

Is Trump the Republican Obama?

In terms of personal quality and character and intelligence and decency and dignity and all the other things you should look for in a good person and president, absolutely not. In terms of his popularity with his party's base and ability to bring out new voters and, yes, a certain level of personal charisma that draws his followers to him, probably yes.

 

[stankeylegjones]

If that's the case, then there's nothing to do do other than wait for it to get much worse for them than it has been. Youre essentially saying that the only thing motivating them to vote is "anything other than the same". So just wait and be "not the same".

Is there something deeper there than that? Honestly I already feel the contrast is about as stark as it can be. It's virtually impossible to simultaneously be in power and preach change. If change for the sake of change is the motivating factor, then there was never anything to be done about the election from the perspective of Democrats.

Hopefully you are right, and this shit will be over after four years, with us all getting back to democratic control of the white house and branches.

There's no way of knowing, but I do think if she'd come out and championed the strength of the economy while also pointing out how she would help those struggling to make ends meet, then it would have resonated with many voters (both who did vote and those who sat it out).

 

[wmheel1287]

Hopefully you are right, and this shit will be over after four years, with us all getting back to democratic control of the white house and branches.

There's no way of knowing, but I do think if she'd come out and championed the strength of the economy while also pointing out how she would help those struggling to make ends meet, then it would have resonated with many voters (both who did vote and those who sat it out).

For the record, I was one who was FURIOUS at Biden for ever running and for not having a primary. His old ass should be beat for it. Love him but seriously mean it. Just like RBG's grave deserves a good pissing for her own hubris.

Im so SICK of old fucks who will not get out of the way. Hell, I'm 46 and I should be out of the way in another 15 years. The idea that I should be in control of anything 3 decades from now is totally laughable.

 

[stankeylegjones]

For the record, I was one who was FURIOUS at Biden for ever running and for not having a primary. His old ass should be beat for it. Love him but seriously mean it. Just like RBG's grave deserves a good pissing for her own hubris.

Im so SICK of old fucks who will not get out of the way. Hell, I'm 46 and I should be out of the way in another 15 years. The idea that I should be in control of anything 3 decades from now is totally laughable.

I agree with you, other than beating him (I know you are joking about that). I too don't understand why he didn't see that for the good of the country he should have come out very early on in his presidency and stated that he was here for four years to right the ship and then hand off the reins to someone else.

 

[gtyellowjacket]

I agree with you, other than beating him (I know you are joking about that). I too don't understand why he didn't see that for the good of the country he should have come out very early on in his presidency and stated that he was here for four years to right the ship and then hand off the reins to someone else.

If you've never experienced it, the folks that are on the cognitive decline never see it. They don't want to stop driving or living in their house. They think they are fine and the kids are overreacting. I can imagine why Biden didn't want to give up the presidency.

 

[wmheel1287]

I agree with you, other than beating him (I know you are joking about that). I too don't understand why he didn't see that for the good of the country he should have come out very early on in his presidency and stated that he was here for four years to right the ship and then hand off the reins to someone else.

Exactly. He should have announced it at his darned inaugural and gotten about the business of governing while others jockeyed for position in the party, etc.

 

[HeelYeah2012]

If you've never experienced it, the folks that are on the cognitive decline never see it. They don't want to stop driving or living in their house. They think they are fine and the kids are overreacting. I can imagine why Biden didn't want to give up the presidency.

It’s this (above) plus also just in general people don’t usually willingly give up massive levels of power. Put the two things together and Biden had no intention of going anywhere until he was exposed as a vegetable and became a political liability for his party.

 

[finesse]

For the record, I was one who was FURIOUS at Biden for ever running and for not having a primary. His old ass should be beat for it. Love him but seriously mean it. Just like RBG's grave deserves a good pissing for her own hubris.

Im so SICK of old fucks who will not get out of the way. Hell, I'm 46 and I should be out of the way in another 15 years. The idea that I should be in control of anything 3 decades from now is totally laughable.

I'm not 3 decades older, only 27 years. You greatly overrate the certainty of mental decline at that age. Not sure I'm a prime example, but there are a hell of a lot of them in history before the current state of healthcare. You should worry a lot more about those that never had it than about those that might be losing it. Neither one should be in office but young and incompetent is no better and more common than old and in the way.

 

[superrific]

I agree with you, other than beating him (I know you are joking about that). I too don't understand why he didn't see that for the good of the country he should have come out very early on in his presidency and stated that he was here for four years to right the ship and then hand off the reins to someone else.

It might have something to do with the realization that your proposed strategy is an objectively terrible idea.

The success rate of major party candidates from the same party as a non-term-limited incumbent remains zero.