EXIT POLLS & TURNOUT DATA - The Red Shift

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EhringhausSouth said:
I'm telling you, Harris will win the presidency, Democrats will take the house and it'll be at best for Republicans 51-49 in the senate. Harris will win by enough I think to have a decent mandate. Problem is, without Walz as a tiebreaker, may be hard to get anything done. Hopefully on some things a Republican Senate will play ball.
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Just have Kamala offer Susan Collins a cabinet position and the Democratic governor of Maine appoints a Democratic Senator.
 
This may have been asked already, but how do exit polls account for the people who voted early? The same day voters are likely skewed Trump, so I assume they combine the same day with mail-in and early voting samples, right?
 
Calheel said:
I'm thinking about selling my Dogecoin today. It has gone up 100% in the last few weeks and I have a feeling it will crash if Kamala wins.
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Bet all your Dogecoin on Harris to win and you can more than double its value again since she’s a slight underdog in the betting markets.
 
HeelInTheOzarks said:
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So stupid. So very stupid. The Florida Dems might be cooked but it's not because of that. When will political analysts realize that voters' party registrations don't necessarily reflect their current partisanship. To say nothing of the folly of selecting the skewed sample of half a day of voting and calling that the result.
 
EhringhausSouth said:
Just put some money on Harris. Easy money. For some reason the betting odds have Trump a slight favorite.
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There's an arbitrage opportunity, I .e free money, if the fees don't eat your profits.

Polymarket has Harris at $0.38 to win a dollar. Predictit has Trump at $0.55 to win a dollar. Bet on Harris on polymarket and Trump on predictit. You will have bet $0.93 and no matter who wins, you win a dollar profiting $0.07.

This assumes that there are no outcomes such as no one wins which I guess something crazy could happen. But if something like that does happen, you'll probably have a lot more to worry about than your bets.
 
gtyellowjacket said:
There's an arbitrage opportunity, I .e free money, if the fees don't eat your profits.

Polymarket has Harris at $0.38 to win a dollar. Predictit has Trump at $0.55 to win a dollar. Bet on Harris on polymarket and Trump on predictit. You will have bet $0.93 and no matter who wins, you win a dollar profiting $0.07.

This assumes that there are no outcomes such as no one wins which I guess something crazy could happen. But if something like that does happen, you'll probably have a lot more to worry about than your bets.
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This is a great example of why these betting markets are not good predictors of anything. A market that can't even rid itself of obvious arbitrage opportunities is not one that can produce meaningful price discovery.
 
If I had to pick the handful of posters on this board who I was sure were the kinds of weirdos who 1. think betting markets are predictive when it comes to politics and 2. bet on politics, it would be the exact ones discussing doing so here.
 
superrific said:
So stupid. So very stupid. The Florida Dems might be cooked but it's not because of that. When will political analysts realize that voters' party registrations don't necessarily reflect their current partisanship. To say nothing of the folly of selecting the skewed sample of half a day of voting and calling that the result.
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I have yet to see a single data point from today's voting that has any predictive value whatsoever. And that's to be completely expected. Just so many commentators needing something to draw eyes.
 
superrific said:
So stupid. So very stupid. The Florida Dems might be cooked but it's not because of that. When will political analysts realize that voters' party registrations don't necessarily reflect their current partisanship. To say nothing of the folly of selecting the skewed sample of half a day of voting and calling that the result.
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I’m just sharing tweets here - it did make me laugh that we are forecasting the morning of E Day to mean it’s over.
 
lawtig02 said:
I have yet to see a single data point from today's voting that has any predictive value whatsoever. And that's to be completely expected. Just so many commentators needing something to draw eyes.
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Exactly. Apparently dade and hillsborough counties arent voting where dems need, but it's florida so...

Honestly, I am glad dems have finally given up on that state. Cubans vote against their own interests like crazy
 
GQNC said:
Just my little anecdote leading into Election Day - of 18 houses yesterday where we were able to talk with someone, 9 residences (1-4) people had already voted and 9 residences were voting today. As I had reported last week, an elderly black lady said she was waiting to vote today with a large group from her church. All these anecdotes should be considered straight blue.

I was a bit disappointed that the database used to generate the canvassing maps was in some cases 7+ years out of date. In some neighborhoods this can represent quite a bit of turnover. It was surprising that even in mixed race neighborhoods the current new residents were typically other blue voters.

ETA: All visits were in Cabarrus County, which is considered one of the seven light red counties nationwide most likely to flip to light blue.
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First of all, you're a hero! Thanks for deciding to doorknock. I know from experience how tough it is to take that first step and commit to going out.

Second of all the main way the database gets updated is through boots on the ground verification. If folks have moved and you flagged them in Minivan as "Moved", you did your part to update the database.

The freshness of the lists is a function of how much doorknocking got done in in the last few election cycles. The more doors we knock on, the better the list. I think the list in upcoming years will be much much better!
 
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