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EXIT POLLS & TURNOUT DATA - The Red Shift

  • Thread starter Thread starter nycfan
  • Start date Start date
  • Replies: 627
  • Views: 15K
  • Politics 
superrific said:
I get it. I'm not criticizing you. Just making an observation that might be constructive.

I should add, though, that your status on the board maybe gives you a special responsibility. You're widely seen as the news aggregator, the person most informed about the most current of events. So if you're going to offer your POV based on personal experience, you might notate that with "My take:" so people don't panic thinking that you're seeing something concrete somewhere.
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I appreciate what nycfan does and has done for this board.

I certainly don’t regard her as “the person most informed about the most current of events” on this board. I don’t regard any single person as the “most informed.”

I don’t regard her as “the news aggregator.”

She links a lot of things - many links that I’ve learned to ignore (I don’t need to watch daily links of Trump rambling).

She should be free to post as she sees fit.
 
aGDevil2k said:
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BTW if turnout really is breaking records, which is what seems to be happening in NC, GA, PA.... that has to be good for Harris. Because I just dont think Trump is getting NEW voters that never voted for him before. Not at least the majority of new voters.
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It's not necessarily good for Harris. In fact, it might not be good for her at all.

It used to be that high turnout elections favored Dems. That was before Trumpian populism. Now, Dems are the party of the most engaged voters, and Trump consistently polls better with less engaged voters. Now, it's entirely possible that there are multiple turning points. That is, 90%+ voters are more Dem, 70-80% voters more Pub, and 35-50% voters again more likely Dem. Just making those numbers up.

But if our main advantage was supposed to be GOTV, then high turnout everywhere is a double edged sword.

Wildcard: the lowest propensity voters are Hispanic. If Hispanic turnout is very high, in the wake of MSG fiasco, that is likely good for us.
 
hedge said:
How can you more than double your money if Harris is +130?
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If you bet $100 on Harris to win, and she wins, you will receive $230 back (and profit $130).

If the betting markets had it as a 50/50 race it'd be more like betting $100 to win $200 (profit $100) - I'm ignoring the house taking their cut here for simplicity. But since she's a slight underdog, she gets a better payout if she wins than she would get in a 50/50 race.
 
My gut says high turnout is good for Harris:

Dems - Well d'uh.

Pubs - Who's more like to crawl over glass to vote? New Trump voters that didn't vote Trump in 2020, or the converted Republican Never Trumpers? My step mother is a registered Republican (retired airforce) and she LOATHES Trump with a white hot passion. Nobody hates like the recently converted.

Independents: Gives me the most pause. Worry that the Bro vote is turning out. But are they really? IT's one thing to retweet a meme, but to be together enough to register and go vote? Not too sure. OTOH, "It's the Dobbs, stupid!". What's more likely to be driving independent voter turnout? I gotta go with Dobbs.

On the whole the higher turnout gets, the better I feel.
 
superrific said:
It's not necessarily good for Harris. In fact, it might not be good for her at all.

It used to be that high turnout elections favored Dems. That was before Trumpian populism. Now, Dems are the party of the most engaged voters, and Trump consistently polls better with less engaged voters. Now, it's entirely possible that there are multiple turning points. That is, 90%+ voters are more Dem, 70-80% voters more Pub, and 35-50% voters again more likely Dem. Just making those numbers up.

But if our main advantage was supposed to be GOTV, then high turnout everywhere is a double edged sword.

Wildcard: the lowest propensity voters are Hispanic. If Hispanic turnout is very high, in the wake of MSG fiasco, that is likely good for us.
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I think your wildcard is correct
 
aGDevil2k said:
WHEN harris wins, nycfan, please take a good 24 hour break (that's all you get) for all the work you have done


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BTW if turnout really is breaking records, which is what seems to be happening in NC, GA, PA.... that has to be good for Harris. Because I just dont think Trump is getting NEW voters that never voted for him before. Not at least the majority of new voters.
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He’s getting some new bros for sure, but otherwise i think it’s a good point.
 
HeelYeah2012 said:
If you bet $100 on Harris to win, and she wins, you will receive $230 back (and profit $130).

If the betting markets had it as a 50/50 race it'd be more like betting $100 to win $200 (profit $100) - I'm ignoring the house taking their cut here for simplicity. But since she's a slight underdog, she gets a better payout if she wins than she would get in a 50/50 race.
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House’s cut is usually baked into the odds.
 
rodoheel said:
I dunno - I don't expect it to reverse, but I do think it's very likely to shrink, just as a statistical matter.
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But why?

There's really no reason men would vote more on EDay than Women. I get stats...but why was it statistically spread out in the first place? It's not a D vs R thing
 
There were no good vibes coming in 8 years ago. There was nothing but "well maybe" hints, and worry signs all over MSNBC. Seems way way different.

And BTW you better believe they have seen the exit polls already on Nicolle Wallace....they cant say it until 5. But IMO something is happening.
 
aGDevil2k said:
But why?

There's really no reason men would vote more on EDay than Women. I get stats...but why was it statistically spread out in the first place? It's not a D vs R thing
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I mean, unless the population of registered voters is at least 55% women, it's just a fact that the percentage of registered voters who haven't voted yet is going to be more men than women. So there are more potential male election day voters than female.

But beyond that, I'm fairly certain that women are more likely to vote early than men; I don't know if statistics confirm this, but just by nature women tend to be better planners and better at competing tasks early.

Per exit polling 52% of voters were women in 2020. I would be very surprised if we stayed all the way at 55% of voters being women through ED votes. My guess is that it ends up fairly close to 2020. If it's higher than 52%, that would be good news for Kamala IMO.
 
aGDevil2k said:
WHEN harris wins, nycfan, please take a good 24 hour break (that's all you get) for all the work you have done


______________


BTW if turnout really is breaking records, which is what seems to be happening in NC, GA, PA.... that has to be good for Harris. Because I just dont think Trump is getting NEW voters that never voted for him before. Not at least the majority of new voters.
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I’ve posted this to you before, but I think high turnout favors Trump more than Harris. I’ve been rooting for a low turnout day.
 
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