EXIT POLLS & TURNOUT DATA - The Red Shift

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CFordUNC said:
If I had to pick the handful of posters on this board who I was sure were the kinds of weirdos who 1. think betting markets are predictive when it comes to politics and 2. bet on politics, it would be the exact ones discussing doing so here.
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I won a good amount of money on Biden in individual state polls (especially PA and GA) in 2020 when it was like 2AM and Trump was showing as like a -700 massive favorite in those states. As soon as it became clear on the ZZLP that there was weirdness going on (broken pipes in Georgia, slow counts in other states, etc.) and the results weren't as sure as they seemed up until that point, I immediately hammered Biden at crazy good odds and ended up hitting on several hundred dollars worth of winnings.

Superrific is right that the betting markets aren't perfect and that there are sometimes opportunities to make money in them if you follow the live results more intelligently than the general public. This board, with the sophistication we have and the accounts we follow, may know the true state of the races in some states before the betting markets can fully catch up.
 
EhringhausSouth said:
I'm telling you, Harris will win the presidency, Democrats will take the house and it'll be at best for Republicans 51-49 in the senate. Harris will win by enough I think to have a decent mandate. Problem is, without Walz as a tiebreaker, may be hard to get anything done. Hopefully on some things a Republican Senate will play ball.
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If one party holds the House and another party has the Senate, no POTUS has a mandate.
 
aGDevil2k said:
And this is the guy who really nailed Georgia analysis as it came in 4 years ago

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The last time I paid attention to day-of turnout reports was 2016, when reports came in about record breaking turnout in all the places HRC needed. Then it turned out some of those reports were, shall we say, premature or inaccurate.

I know, we're all saying the same thing. None of this information is valuable. And yet we are all still looking at it. LOL.
 
CFordUNC said:
Just have Kamala offer Susan Collins a cabinet position and the Democratic governor of Maine appoints a Democratic Senator.
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The GOP makes her Chair of a major committee (she’s currently Vice-Chair of Appropriations).

She’s not trading that for a minor Cabinet seat.
 
aGDevil2k said:
where are you seeing bad juju?
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Not so much bad news as lack of good news based on EV turnout in rural red counties — More reading between lines of talking heads who seem to think it is a bigger reach than NC.
 
nycfan said:
There doesn’t seem to be a lot of good juju about Georgia, TBH.
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Which data? At least from a turnout standpoint, GA has equaled 2020, which portends for higher turnout. Is it a lagging black vote?

ETA: answered above.
 


We don’t know how many McCain or Haley Republicans may be voting against Trump from registration data, but clearly Dems need substantial support from unaffiliated voters in AZ today.
 
nycfan said:
Not so much bad news as lack of good news based on EV turnout in rural red counties — More reading between lines of talking heads who seem to think it is a bigger reach than NC.
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With all due respect, your reading between the lines of David Plouffe last night was suspect. You are letting anxiety color your thoughts. Which we all do. I just don't think you have much basis for this pessimism.
 
superrific said:
The last time I paid attention to day-of turnout reports was 2016, when reports came in about record breaking turnout in all the places HRC needed. Then it turned out some of those reports were, shall we say, premature or inaccurate.

I know, we're all saying the same thing. None of this information is valuable. And yet we are all still looking at it. LOL.
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This was mainly because nycfan thought that Georgia had bad juju
 
nycfan said:


We don’t know how many McCain or Haley Republicans may be voting against Trump from registration data, but clearly Dems need substantial support from unaffiliated voters in AZ today.
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Old people vote in the morning. Young people vote in the afternoon. Especially young moms. Don't react to a biased, self-selected sample.
 
nycfan said:


We don’t know how many McCain or Haley Republicans may be voting against Trump from registration data, but clearly Dems need substantial support from unaffiliated voters in AZ today.
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So just like 4 years ago
 
nycfan said:


We don’t know how many McCain or Haley Republicans may be voting against Trump from registration data, but clearly Dems need substantial support from unaffiliated voters in AZ today.
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Was reading something the other day about Nevada recently passing automatic voter registration. Overwhelming majority of voters registered automatically by the DMV are registered UNA/IND.

Edit: Doh. The post I replied to is talking about AZ.
 
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