EXIT POLLS & TURNOUT DATA - The Red Shift

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lawtig02 said:
I have yet to see a single data point from today's voting that has any predictive value whatsoever. And that's to be completely expected. Just so many commentators needing something to draw eyes.
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It’s similar to daily “talk” shows about sports or current events or politics……..there is never enough actual material to discuss, so BS and outrage become commonplace.
 
I do not say this to invalidate anyone’s feelings of worry, fear, stress, anxiety- because every single one of those emotions are entirely understandable- but there is absolutely nothing good that can come from doomscrolling social media or even this board today. The election isn’t changing tweet by tweet. It was Kamala’s to lose from about the moment she entered the race, and it’s even more so now than it was then Kamala’s race to lose. Do more, worry less.
 
superrific said:
With all due respect, your reading between the lines of David Plouffe last night was suspect. You are letting anxiety color your thoughts. Which we all do. I just don't think you have much basis for this pessimism.
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With all due respect, like all other good faith posters, I share my POV based on personal experience and too closely following these things. I 100% accept that I may be wrong, it just reflects my own read on what I’m reading or hearing. In fact I hope I am wrong.
 
Trump is losing some Republican voters. I understand why folks have the fascination with the parties as it’s the best, most likely indicator but I think he is such a polarizing figure, it’s not that useful today.
 
nycfan said:
With all due respect, like all other good faith posters, I share my POV based on personal experience and too closely following these things. I 100% accept that I may be wrong, it just reflects my own read on what I’m reading or hearing. In fact I hope I am wrong.
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I get it. I'm not criticizing you. Just making an observation that might be constructive.

I should add, though, that your status on the board maybe gives you a special responsibility. You're widely seen as the news aggregator, the person most informed about the most current of events. So if you're going to offer your POV based on personal experience, you might notate that with "My take:" so people don't panic thinking that you're seeing something concrete somewhere.
 
nycfan said:


We don’t know how many McCain or Haley Republicans may be voting against Trump from registration data, but clearly Dems need substantial support from unaffiliated voters in AZ today.
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Reps over representing their % of registrants by 5% and Dems under by 8%. Obviously a lot of unknown in the unaffiliated category, who currently are over represented by >5%.
 
WHEN harris wins, nycfan, please take a good 24 hour break (that's all you get) for all the work you have done


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BTW if turnout really is breaking records, which is what seems to be happening in NC, GA, PA.... that has to be good for Harris. Because I just dont think Trump is getting NEW voters that never voted for him before. Not at least the majority of new voters.
 
aGDevil2k said:
WHEN harris wins, nycfan, please take a good 24 hour break (that's all you get) for all the work you have done


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BTW if turnout really is breaking records, which is what seems to be happening in NC, GA, PA.... that has to be good for Harris. Because I just dont think Trump is getting NEW voters that never voted for him before. Not at least the majority of new voters.
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I'm not sure about that. I do think he has probably brought in some young men who previously did not vote.
 
From Politico:

“‘Mark Pocan and I have moved from nauseously optimistic to cautiously optimistic,’ Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.) said just after 3 p.m.

Dingell and Pocan, the Wisconsin Democrat, respectively represent the liberal college towns of Ann Arbor, Michigan, and Madison, Wisconsin.”
 
Paine said:
From Politico:

“‘Mark Pocan and I have moved from nauseously optimistic to cautiously optimistic,’ Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.) said just after 3 p.m.

Dingell and Pocan, the Wisconsin Democrat, respectively represent the liberal college towns of Ann Arbor, Michigan, and Madison, Wisconsin.”
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Is this moving in the right direction?
 
Paine said:
From Politico:

“‘Mark Pocan and I have moved from nauseously optimistic to cautiously optimistic,’ Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.) said just after 3 p.m.

Dingell and Pocan, the Wisconsin Democrat, respectively represent the liberal college towns of Ann Arbor, Michigan, and Madison, Wisconsin.”
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WTF does "nauseously optimistic mean"? Is it less optimistic than cautiously, or more?
 
tallheel95 said:
I'm not sure about that. I do think he has probably brought in some young men who previously did not vote.
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The only way Trump wins is if he convinces low propensity voters to vote (e.g., young males). So I agree higher turnout isn’t necessarily good news (it’s not necessarily bad news, either).
 
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