EXIT POLLS & TURNOUT DATA - The Red Shift

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Calheel said:
Which comes back to the circular argument that you want the right voter turnout to be high.

But I am simply saying as an aggregate matter, without distinguish which group is which, it is not helpful to have high turnout today.
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In NC, sure. In PA, maybe not
 
Calheel said:
Which comes back to the circular argument that you want the right voter turnout to be high.

But I am simply saying as an aggregate matter, without distinguish which group is which, it is not helpful to have high turnout today.
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That's maybe true. Like I said, there can be multiple non-linearities in the function. If you divide the electorate into five groups based on likelihood to vote, there's no reason a party can't be strong with groups 1 and 4.

I suspect that Kamala does best with highly engaged voters; trump does better with less engaged voters; and Kamala again best with the least engaged voters.
 
Calheel said:
But I am simply saying as an aggregate matter, without distinguish which group is which, it is not helpful to have high turnout today.
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You’re talking about a pre-Dobbs landscape. Things have changed. The higher the turnout today, the better.
 
superrific said:
That's maybe true. Like I said, there can be multiple non-linearities in the function. If you divide the electorate into five groups based on likelihood to vote, there's no reason a party can't be strong with groups 1 and 4.

I suspect that Kamala does best with highly engaged voters; trump does better with less engaged voters; and Kamala again best with the least engaged voters.
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Least engaged voters are Rogan Bros. And I am praying they stay home.

There are of course scenarios in which high turnout will work to Kamala's favor. Ultimately, we won't be able to dissect this election until after the fact. But based on what we know as of today, I am rooting for low turnout -- at least lower than 2020. If we are at 170 million plus for this election, I am very worried about what that portends.
 
aGDevil2k said:
If more women dont vote this year than 2020, I think everyone would be FLOORED
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Do you mean more total, or more as a percentage of the total electorate? The former is pretty much guaranteed, but I'm not sure the latter is.
 
quakerdevil said:
Exit poll in swing states, top issue

State of democracy 35
Economy 31
Abortion 14
Immigration 11
Foreign policy 4
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Would have hoped for abortion to be higher. But - probably not too bad over all? Probably depends on how many of the "democracy" folks voted for Trump vs how many of the "economy" folks voted for Harris.
 
rodoheel said:
Would have hoped for abortion to be higher. But - probably not too bad over all? Probably depends on how many of the "democracy" folks voted for Trump vs how many of the "economy" folks voted for Harris.
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Nobody voting for Trump has democracy as their #1 issue. Or at least hardly anyone. And there will be plenty of people voting for Kamala based on the economy.

In my amateur but informed view, this is "Kamala wins easily" territory. If true. Exit polls aren't great at predictions.
 
superrific said:
Nobody voting for Trump has democracy as their #1 issue. Or at least hardly anyone. And there will be plenty of people voting for Kamala based on the economy.

In my amateur but informed view, this is "Kamala wins easily" territory. If true. Exit polls aren't great at predictions.
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I dunno. It wouldn't surprise me for 15% of the "Democracy" people to be Trump supporters. Musk et al are really pushing that Harris will kill free speech, make us a one-party state, etc. Complete hogwash, but they're messaging it hard.

Don't get me wrong - I'd still generally agree that it's good cross tabs. But I'd rather see some of that democracy percentage in abortion, which I think is almost guaranteed to be Kamala voters. That's all.
 
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