NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament Thread

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The problem with KenPom is Duke's conference schedule. We really still don't know how good they are given the weakness of their competition.

Their most likely path is thru the SEC - Bama, TN and either FL or Aub. If you give them a 65% chance of winning each game, they have a 27% chance of winning it all...
They proved plenty out of conference unfortunately. Beat Arizona at Arizona earlier in the year, absolutely demolished Illinois at Illinois and also beat Auburn. The did lose to Kansas and Kentucky early on but I would say they are better now than they were in December.
 
I was skeptical of Flagg coming in, but he's the real deal. Most talented player in college basketball probably since Durant.

Only thing I was skeptical of was whether he could give them an efficient 16-20+ every night if they needed it

That jumper was supposedly the only weakness. Tuns out they didn't need it and he could

Didn't see Kon being so impactful right away or Proctor shooting it so well
 
I swear some idiots rank that game over a national title.
When it was going to happen I was like OMG this will kill the rivalry! But it didn't. On the losing side, it really sucked then. But I think because you all didn't win it all, it didn't sting long-term like I thought.
I mean I also am not a K worshipper (thought he should have retired after he got bounced in 2019....his stubborn lack of a bench was a killer. And at least he became more left-leaning as he aged -- he hated Trump -- his earlier conservative slant was gross). Great coach. Liked him personally. But clearly was past his prime.

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On the tourney, we have a tough final 3 games. I think at this point no loss is really an upset. The only team(s) that I would say should NOT win are TTU and MSU. But between Duke, Bama, Houston, Tenn, Florida and Allbarn? Any of them could win without it being surprising.


Also - how much makeup was Clark Kellogg wearing last night????
 
When it was going to happen I was like OMG this will kill the rivalry! But it didn't. On the losing side, it really sucked then. But I think because you all didn't win it all, it didn't sting long-term like I thought.
I mean I also am not a K worshipper (thought he should have retired after he got bounced in 2019....his stubborn lack of a bench was a killer. And at least he became more left-leaning as he aged -- he hated Trump -- his earlier conservative slant was gross). Great coach. Liked him personally. But clearly was past his prime.

_________________

On the tourney, we have a tough final 3 games. I think at this point no loss is really an upset. The only team(s) that I would say should NOT win are TTU and MSU. But between Duke, Bama, Houston, Tenn, Florida and Allbarn? Any of them could win without it being surprising.


Also - how much makeup was Clark Kellogg wearing last night????
Clark Kellogg is a good reason to not watch college hoops “analysis” on TV.

“Squeeze the orange” or whatever bullshit he says - enough reason to ignore him forever. No one called the ball “the Orange.”

Way back in the day, he was listed as a possible UNC recruit. He was a Top 5 recruit.

He was also listed as a possible Kentucky, Ohio State, Michigan, Louisville recruit.

He was the beginning that I realized that if a recruit mentioned Kentucky or Ohio State or Michigan or the Metro Conference, he had his hand out for a big cash infusion.
 
It was the most satisfying victory outside of a national championship.
As a Duke fan, it doesn't come close to a top ten loss. I don't care about it being K's last game - that team was good, but not great. Ultimate losses in 1986, 1999, 2004 and 2019 hurt much more.

Hell, the Carolina losses in 1974 and 1984 in Carmichael hurt more.
 
The Final Four win against dook is the biggest win of all time against them. Heels will always have that over dook until they beat UNC in the Fianal Four or the championship game.
 
As a Duke fan, it doesn't come close to a top ten loss. I don't care about it being K's last game - that team was good, but not great. Ultimate losses in 1986, 1999, 2004 and 2019 hurt much more.

Hell, the Carolina losses in 1974 and 1984 in Carmichael hurt more.
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the women's team has collapsed in the second quarter. just total bottoming out
We’ve been erratic quarter to quarter like this all season — unfortunately I can’t watch now but maybe that is a good thing.
 
I was skeptical of Flagg coming in, but he's the real deal. Most talented player in college basketball probably since Durant.

Anything can happen in a best-of-one, and even this far into the tournament, the field is probably a better bet than any one team, but Duke has to be considered the favorite and by a lot. According to kenpom, Duke is about as much better as Alabama than Alabama was better than BYU.
Duke is up to +150 (high) +225 (low)
Next highest is Florida at +250 (high) +410 (low).

That is significantly better odds than at the start of the tourney, when Duke was around +350, about where Florida was.

So Duke is still an underdog to the field by about 2:1, but it is definitely the leader in the clubhouse as of today.

 
3 Thoughts

1. If Caleb could play Dook every game he would have been a first round pick two years ago.

2. I picked Alabama to beat Dook in the elite 8. An X-factor is the unabashed dirty play by Sears that seemingly never gets called. This is not Coach K so it's a question how much those will be called agains t]he $EC team.

3. AgDevil is ok other than being a DOOK fan! No one is perfect.
Re: #1. There's some truth to that, but depsite his 30 piece, it was still his dumb contested shot from the logo when the game was tied (or very close) that effectively stalled their momentum and let dook get their groove back. It felt all too familiar.
 
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