OFFICIAL ELECTION RESULTS - POTUS | TRUMP ELECTED 47th President

[HeelingAg]

Yes, mostly by promising them things they are too naive to understand he can’t deliver.

But since we know lying doesn’t matter, it’s time to promise everyone $100,000, a new F150, $50,000 for a down payment, and an ironclad guarantee we’ll hurt the people you hate.

 

[Calheel]

He got almost 75 million votes in 2020 in the midst of bungling a pandemic, most of which was a direct result of the connection he had with working class voters.

In 2024, he solidified his working class base and made advances into working class groups that had previously been Dem-leans.

I'd say he's done well with the working class in all 3 elections.

There is certainly some merit to your argument. I'm linking below an interesting analysis of the 2020 election.

In 2020, the trend of minority working class voters moving to Trump did continue to progress -- but Biden was able to offset by huge pickups in the suburbs. This year, Harris was not able to match that suburb performance, and the minority working class continued its rightward tilt.

Obviously, 2020 had no inflation issue -- so inflation cannot be the explanation for that result (even if it can explain the acceleration of that trend in 2024).

There is a demographic question as to whether it is possible to build a coalition of suburbs and working class. In other words, do the democrats have to pick one or the other?

The 2020 Presidential Election and Working-Class Voters

Our findings suggest that the 2020 presidential election represented a continued shift in the base of the Democratic Party from one rooted in working-class voters to a coalition that’s highly concentrated in high-income suburbs.

jacobin.com

 

[stankeylegjones]

Trump’s total will be higher than 2020. California alone should more than makeup the current difference. With 54% of votes counted, he has 3.9 million votes there

Anecdotally, I saw Trump signs, Trump demonstrations on bridges over 24 and 580, and several folks wearing Trump 2024 shirts while out shopping. I don't recall ever seeing this since I've lived here (Bay area).

 

[Zoo_View]

I think very little of last night had to do with what Trump said or did. He was simply the beneficiary of a low inflation rate when he was president and a high inflation rate when Biden was president. His oratory skills did not get the latino vote. Inflation did.

I think there is a day-after tendency to imbue the winning campaign with a certain winning formula, when circumstances had far, far more to do with the result than the campaign, itself. That is not to say that candidate quality is irrelevant. And there is always the possibility that MAGA diehards would only vote for Trump and no other Republican. But for the true swing voters last night, Trump's messaging was not what won the election; inflation was.

I hope you are correct.

You likely are - partially.

You’re likely wrong -partially.

 

[Zoo_View]

There is certainly some merit to your argument. I'm linking below an interesting analysis of the 2020 election.

In 2020, the trend of minority working class voters moving to Trump did continue to progress -- but Biden was able to offset by huge pickups in the suburbs. This year, Harris was not able to match that suburb performance, and the minority working class continued its rightward tilt.

Obviously, 2020 had no inflation issue -- so inflation cannot be the explanation for that result (even if it can explain the acceleration of that trend in 2024).

There is a demographic question as to whether it is possible to build a coalition of suburbs and working class. In other words, do the democrats have to pick one or the other?

The 2020 Presidential Election and Working-Class Voters

Our findings suggest that the 2020 presidential election represented a continued shift in the base of the Democratic Party from one rooted in working-class voters to a coalition that’s highly concentrated in high-income suburbs.

jacobin.com

The GOP didn’t have to pick.

All-in on cultural wars worked with the suburbs and the working class.

 

[altmin]

my 9 year old said the bus was full of sad kids today because of Trump. Then one boy who liked Trump started teasing the sad kids and everyone started yelling.

This is in Canada.

 

[Calheel]

The GOP didn’t have to pick.

All-in on cultural wars worked with the suburbs and the working class.

That was the messaging but I don't think that is what won them the election. It was the economy. stupid. That is always THE issue in elections. And inflation is the single worst vote killer for the incumbent, even worse than unemployment or low GDP growth.

Yes, Republicans sold culture grievances. And no doubt those transgender commercials performed well in focus groups. But culture wars didn't win the Republicans this election.

Again, I'm going to reiterate that a simple 1.5% of the electorate switching from Trump to Kamala in Georgia, NC, MI, PA, WI makes this a comfortable win for her. So, you are talking about an incredibly small percentage of the electorate -- basically working class latinos. If Harris could have matched Biden's performance with that demographic, odds are good she would be the next president of the United States.

So, culture wars may play to the base. But economic wars are what can swing those 1.5% back to democrats in 2028.

 

[TarSpiel]

End of the line?

 

[1moretimeagain]

my 9 year old said the bus was full of sad kids today because of Trump. Then one boy who liked Trump started teasing the sad kids and everyone started yelling.

This is in Canada.

Imagine being the bus driver and you have elementary school Canadien kids getting into it over a US election.

 

[Zoo_View]

my 9 year old said the bus was full of sad kids today because of Trump. Then one boy who liked Trump started teasing the sad kids and everyone started yelling.

This is in Canada.

Damn!

 

[altmin]

Imagine being the bus driver and you have elementary school Canadien kids getting into it over a US election.

luckily it's a very short ride (the school is only about 6 minutes away from the big neighborhood spot where all these kids get on. It's actually a bus that does a full route, drops off the kids then doubles back to pick up her cohort and run them over)

it becomes the principal's problem then

 

[Zoo_View]

That was the messaging but I don't think that is what won them the election. It was the economy. stupid. That is always THE issue in elections. And inflation is the single worst vote killer for the incumbent, even worse than unemployment or low GDP growth.

Yes, Republicans sold culture grievances. And no doubt those transgender commercials performed well in focus groups. But culture wars didn't win the Republicans this election.

Again, I'm going to reiterate that a simple 1.5% of the electorate switching from Trump to Kamala in Georgia, NC, MI, PA, WI makes this a comfortable win for her. So, you are talking about an incredibly small percentage of the electorate -- basically working class latinos. If Harris could have matched Biden's performance with that demographic, odds are good she would be the next president of the United States.

So, culture wars may play to the base. But economic wars are what can swing those 1.5% back to democrats in 2028.

Ignorant views of inflation won the election.

Rational economic discussions won’t win the Democrats shit.

 

[mpaer]

Fact check please . I heard earlier today trump will get a couple million votes Less than in 2020 . Harris will receive up to 15 million votes less than Biden
So Turnout??????

 

[Calheel]

Ignorant views of inflation won the election.

Rational economic discussions won’t win the Democrats shit.

Agreed.

 

[Gmonet]

But since we know lying doesn’t matter, it’s time to promise everyone $100,000, a new F150, $50,000 for a down payment, and an ironclad guarantee we’ll hurt the people you hate.

This is IMO a big part of the issue, and why we are so screwed. America killed it in the 25 years after WWII because the rest of the world was in shambles. Then we stagnated, but borrowed our way to a new boom in the eighties. Then we stagnated, and technology gave us a new boom in the late 90s. Then we stagnated, and fracking/1% interest rates gave us a new boom. Our quiver is pretty empty as we are leveraged to the hilt and can't go back to 1% rates. Maybe AI, but that cuts hard both ways. The majority of the American public doesn't remember any real hardship that lasted more than a few quarters - I'm 55 and the years of stagflation/energy crisis is a very faint lower school memory.

Trump got elected twice during environments of good to very good overall economic performance that simply weren't satisfying enough. The American public increasingly feels it is everyone's right to be rich, famous and beautiful. And politicians are increasingly willing to say and do anything to keep that keep that fantasy alive. Promising everything, asking nothing and shirking any worldwide responsibility (which is a huge driver for decades of prosperity) is, well, not reality. We're heading for a cliff. I'd prefer the Dems not engage in a game of chicken as to who can fly off it first, even if the other side - which I was once a part of - has the pedal to the metal.

 

[HeelingAg]

This is IMO a big part of the issue, and why we are so screwed. America killed it in the 25 years after WWII because the rest of the world was in shambles. Then we stagnated, but borrowed our way to a new boom in the eighties. Then we stagnated, and technology gave us a new boom in the late 90s. Then we stagnated, and fracking/1% interest rates gave us a new boom. Our quiver is pretty empty as we are leveraged to the hilt and can't go back to 1% rates. Maybe AI, but that cuts hard both ways. The majority of the American public doesn't remember any real hardship that lasted more than a few quarters - I'm 55 and the years of stagflation/energy crisis is a very faint lower school memory.

Trump got elected twice during environments of good to very good overall economic performance that simply weren't satisfying enough. The American public increasingly feels it is everyone's right to be rich, famous and beautiful. And politicians are increasingly willing to say and do anything to keep that keep that fantasy alive. Promising everything, asking nothing and shirking any worldwide responsibility (which is a huge driver for decades of prosperity) is, well, not reality. We're heading for a cliff. I'd prefer the Dems not engage in a game of chicken as to who can fly off it first, even if the other side - which I was once a part of - has the pedal to the metal.

Soooo, nihilism?

 

[tarheelbillie]

I don't think we "suddenly got conservative".

I think college tuition hurts for a lot of us because we're paying for our kids' college. Or we're watching our kids stuggle with student loans...and housing costs and lack of upward mobility and so many other economic issues.

Gen X is now between 59-44. The political landscape of our youth has moved left since we were young and, as tends to happen, it seems that a lot of us didn't move left with it.

I think we saw something with Boomers 20 years ago...there's something about being the generation that is near the end of their working careers that make people prioritize their personal economic success before retirement. Combine that with a social issues landscape that has often shifted since those voters were actually young and you have a recipe for that generation to vote for the more conservative party.

Have nothing against one voting conservative if that’s their conviction. But my God, did you have to vote for a complete nutcase?

 

[Gmonet]

Soooo, nihilism?

Well some sort of honesty is what I was getting at. At some point lying will matter. A lot. I mean we could go all super Santa Claus and maybe win some elections, but that will hasten our plunge into revolution or autocracy, because it won't work given the dynamic it creates within the population. It may be intractable, but I'd prefer not to follow the path of who can be the loudest carnival barker. I pray that somehow the cycle can be broken, but maybe it's just the way polities are doomed to die.

 

[1moretimeagain]

Fact check please . I heard earlier today trump will get a couple million votes Less than in 2020 . Harris will receive up to 15 million votes less than Biden
So Turnout??????

Trump will likely exceed his 2020 total, Dems will be down from 2020 but significantly less than 15 million.

People are comparing a final tally to a vote with millions of ballots left to be counted.

Just my hunch, but I’m expecting most of the Dem decline to be from non-competitive blue states.

 

[HeelingAg]

I pray that somehow the cycle can be broken, but maybe it's just the way polities are doomed to die.

This is where our assessments diverge. I think we’re beyond the point of no return. I’m of the opinion armed conflict is now baked in, and the outcome boils down to who has control over the biggest guns. I don’t think the moral high ground will have utility in the quest for American power structures for many, many years.