How many voters out there as of today are persuadable by either side? 10%? Maybe less?I mean, if there’s zero percent chance that they’ll vote for anyone other than Trump in November—and a 100% chance they’ll vote for Trump no matter how low he goes, no matter what he does, no matter how many laws and democratic norms he breaks—that’s pretty much his base.
If your definition of base is “a voter that is not obtainable by the other candidate” then we are at 45% Trump base, 45% Harris base, and 10% independent.
But that is a weird definition of base. I think of base as the enthusiastic Trump supporters that are highly likely to turn out to vote for him in November. And in that category I would place about 35% of the electorate.
The whole idea of a base is that it is a base. You know, the solid foundation upon which all other support is added. Saying that everyone who will vote for him is part of the base makes the word lose its meaning.