Though it is probably of little consolation, I do think it’s a silver lining that it’s appearing that Trump really didn’t get anymore votes this time than he did last time. The election wasn’t decided by some unforeseen wave of *new* Trump support. It was decided by one party not being able to turn out the base it needed to win, and the other party being able to do so. Hindsight is obviously 20/20 but I now realize that shouldn't have been so optimistic, since the polls really were quite literally as tight as they could possibly be, which meant that Trump had as good of a chance as Harris, and possibly slightly more so. I think many were not prepared emotionally for what we knew intellectually that we should have been prepared for. Personally, I have not had a negative emotional response to the outcome because I’m just past a point in which I’m going to let something outside of my control negatively impact my emotional or mental wellbeing. I do think that ultimately the deciding factor was inflation and increased prices- and with the benefit of hindsight, I think we probably lost this presidential election in 2022 as much as we did in 2024- with perhaps a touch of racism and misogyny on the part of *some* voters (but not nearly a majority of them). I think it would be foolish to dismiss racism and misogyny as *a* potential contributing factor, but I think it would be equally shortsighted to believe that racism and misogyny were even close to being *the* contributing factors.
Many people who ended up voting for Trump are not MAGA; Trump would have gotten crushed if it were only MAGA voting for him. And only ~30% of eligible voters voted for him anyway. It’s like Simon Rosenberg said: despite the initial shock, the election was a very close one, with Trump narrowly winning in the battlegrounds. The Senate will be 52-48 or 53-47 and the House to be decided by a seat or two. While Democrats lost the Presidency, they had many important down ballot wins- including in the Senate and the NC governorship- in these same battleground states. This was not a massive win, a wave election or some big mandate for MAGA. It was a narrow win in a closely divided country.
Dems need to do a lot of introspection, figure out what went wrong where and how to change it, and get ready for 2026 midterms. The Senate map in 2026 is significantly more favorable for Democrats than was the 2024 one, and if the House only has a 1-3 or so seat Republican majority, it too should be easier to flip. We need to let Trump and the GOP simply be Trump and the GOP, and the conditions should be very favorable for a positive midterm election cycle.