That said, if a pro hit, it wouldn’t strike me as “pro” to leave a 10 day trail prior to the murder.
One assumes that he was spending time scoping out the area and planning the job.
Just a random thought: do we know if the guy caught on camera at the Starbucks is actually the shooter? Is there an image of the shooter's face while doing the shooting? If so, the rest of this post is moot, but if not . . .
I've been suspicious of the Starbucks visit from the beginning. You don't need to go to Starbucks to get a coffee in NYC, not even in Midtown (at least that was true a decade ago). There are plenty of places to get coffee that wouldn't necessarily have high quality security cams, or the ability to search the video footage so quickly. Given the other details that we've seen now, I'm wondering if he was trying to get himself on camera.
So he leaves Starbucks, and he goes . . . somewhere completely different, while a guy he knows dressed similarly does the actual job. The guy on the video leads the manhunt into central park, the real shooter vanishes into Hell's Kitchen, and there's actually nothing tying Starbucks guy to the job. Maybe the cops have information we don't (they probably do!), but based on the evidence we've seen, even if they find the guy, they wouldn't be able to hold him long. There's nothing tying him to the crime other than being dressed the same way as the shooter.
I don't know. Often the Occam's razor explanation for stuff like this is "criminals aren't all that smart, which is why they are criminals," but that does not seem to be the case here. Here is a shooter who managed to get himself in exactly the same spot as the victim in a location that's at least semi-private, with an escape path, a possibly sophisticated weapon and firearms expertise. This doesn't seem to be a guy who would show his face unless he wanted people to see.