Where do we go from here?

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ZenMode said:
I'm going to stick mostly to the topic of the border and not complicate things with the much bigger question of trust in government (or lack thereof), what we should/shouldn't believe and what is/isn't normal because we both know that the public facing operations of the government, the documented procedures, policies etc are largely a facade.
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You have no idea what you're talking about. There will be zero lawyers here or anywhere endorsing your conclusion that the Administrative Procedure Act is a facade. You don't even know what that statute is or does.

I mean, this is a case where you know nothing, and then conclude there's nothing to know. I'm not wasting any more time on you. You literally don't know the first thing about the topic you're ostensibly discussing.
 
lawtig02 said:
I can’t believe we’re still discussing, in the Year of our Lord 2024, why migration increased precipitously from 2020 to 2021.
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Only because, according to exit polls, it was a big issue for some voters. One that was viewed to have been ignored for a significant amount of time by the Biden admin.
 
Is it worth trying to discuss exactly what this immigrant crisis is? What trouble has it caused and how much has the illegal population grown due to border crossings? Iirc, most illegals, or at least a large number of them, are legals who over stayed their visas.
 
superrific said:
You have no idea what you're talking about. There will be zero lawyers here or anywhere endorsing your conclusion that the Administrative Procedure Act is a facade. You don't even know what that statute is or does.

I mean, this is a case where you know nothing, and then conclude there's nothing to know. I'm not wasting any more time on you. You literally don't know the first thing about the topic you're ostensibly discussing.
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Here's what I am talking about...

You have a very partisan view of your political party. You look at the fact that some kind of action was taken in regards to the border in June of 2024, when the crisis started in early-mid 2021, and the thought never seems to cross your mind that the timing wasn't a coincidence. In your mind, you can work backwards and completely explain away the possibility that the timing was actually due to the election and the fact that the border was a big issue for voters.

No, I am not calling any specific act or law a facade. Your view of the situation, in my opinion, is not only seeing just the facade, but likely creating the facade in your mind.
 
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finesse said:
Is it worth trying to discuss exactly what this immigrant crisis is? What trouble has it caused and how much has the illegal population grown due to border crossings? Iirc, most illegals, or at least a large number of them, are legals who over stayed their visas.
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96% of it is hysteria/xenophobia. 3% is actual deleterious effects on social infrastructure, largely limited to relatively small areas in border states. 1% is undercooked fish tacos.

The Shane Gillis bit about his Dad being irate about immigrants coming for our jobs - his Dad being a salesman in the middle of Pennsylvania - is priceless. Immigration adversely affects virtually no one in this country in the grand scheme of things, and indirectly benefits virtually everyone w/r/t economic growth.
 
Paine said:
jacobin.com

Liberals Are Giving Up on America

In their despair at Donald Trump’s victory, liberal pundits are concluding that the masses, especially the working class, are irredeemably terrible. That’s apolitical nonsense.
jacobin.com jacobin.com
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They will all be back by next election. Some people are taking the election extremely hard. Joy Reid had a pretty dark social media post along the same lines.
 
ZenMode said:
You look at the fact that some kind of action was taken in regards to the border in June of 2024, when the crisis started in early-mid 2021, and the thought never seems to cross your mind that the timing wasn't a coincidence. In your mind, you can work backwards and completely explain away the possibility that the timing was actually due to the election and the fact that the border was a big issue for voters.
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I pointed you to a regulation promulgated in early 2023. That's why I think that the action started in 2023. Because that's when the regulation was passed. Why is this hard for you to understand?

Are you so desperate for self-affirmation that you are going to deny reality? I guess so. But that doesn't change the fact that Biden passed regulations addressing the border was set out for rulemaking in early 2023 and adopted in mid 2023. No amount of your bullshit can change that.

If you want to have zero self-respect, that's your choice I suppose. I have educated you. You can either learn or you can be stupid. Just don't wonder why people think you are stupid. Because literally you are choosing it right now.

And, again, there were no regulations promulgated in 2021 and 2022 because the pandemic policy was still in force. Again, either you can deny that and be stupid, or you can learn something.
 
Paine said:
jacobin.com

Liberals Are Giving Up on America

In their despair at Donald Trump’s victory, liberal pundits are concluding that the masses, especially the working class, are irredeemably terrible. That’s apolitical nonsense.
jacobin.com jacobin.com
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Obviously some of the sentiments expressed in the article are hot takes that we shouldn't expect to be useful going forward. Elie Mystal, in particular, is both a bomb thrower and susceptible to emotional volatility. But then there's this:

Never mind that extensive polling consistently flagged the seriousness of inflation to voters struggling to afford groceries, housing, or gas; to this Princeton professor, that’s just a made-up story. As for the “evil racism at the heart of America” narrative, well, that’s hard to square with the numbers. As sociologist Musa al-Gharbi has pointed out, Harris did better even with white voters than Biden did in 2020 (a year in which white male voters’ move away from Trump led to his defeat); the problem was that this year, Trump increased his vote share among nonwhite voters.

So first, we've been through this issue about the polls and we don't necessarily need to rehash that. I guess what caught my eye was the utter dismissal of views expressed by well respected people. Like, if Nikole Hannah-Jones says, "that's just a rationalization," then it is really not an answer to say, "but the polls, stupid." Her name doesn't make her right, but the dismissiveness is off-putting. And maybe you will say, "oh, you don't like it when your side is dismissed," which is not completely unfair but in my experience, leftists have been dismissive of liberals far longer than the other way around. That's neither here nor there.

Second, I just don't understand why "vote share among minorities" is being considered a data point that addresses the claim being made. There are several problems. Did Trump actually get more minority votes, or did minorities just not turn out for Kamala? Those different scenarios don't matter for this election, but they do matter a lot going forward. Also, if you try to look at race without looking at sex, then you will never get the right answer. It's a common fallacy to view the result of a multivariate regression as a linear sum of two single variable regressions; that just isn't true. Finally, that isn't telling us much about the white working class -- nor, for that matter, the working class as a whole given the prevalence of racism among nonwhite voters to other nonwhite voters.

Note: the bit about regression is technical but that's in essence what that article is doing. It's implying a single variable regression on vote share and race.
 
superrific said:
I pointed you to a regulation promulgated in early 2023. That's why I think that the action started in 2023. Because that's when the regulation was passed. Why is this hard for you to understand?

Are you so desperate for self-affirmation that you are going to deny reality? I guess so. But that doesn't change the fact that Biden passed regulations addressing the border was set out for rulemaking in early 2023 and adopted in mid 2023. No amount of your bullshit can change that.

If you want to have zero self-respect, that's your choice I suppose. I have educated you. You can either learn or you can be stupid. Just don't wonder why people think you are stupid. Because literally you are choosing it right now.

And, again, there were no regulations promulgated in 2021 and 2022 because the pandemic policy was still in force. Again, either you can deny that and be stupid, or you can learn something.
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"And, again, there were no regulations promulgated in 2021 and 2022 because the pandemic policy was still in force. "

Which obviously wasn't having an impact hence the 15 year high set in March of 2021.

I'm not disputing the existence of the 2023 regulation. I'm saying that it appears like the Biden admin ignored an issue until it was getting close to being politically damaging for the re-election bid, then started the process of creating regulations that just happen to hit 5 months before the election.

You see nothing out of the ordinary. Just BAU which, to me, is likely a facade based on the link of an article calling out the border crisis in March 2021.

I'm not saying I'm right. I'm not saying you're wrong. I'm just saying that you consistently take a very partisan view of your preferred political party's actions.
 
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A little bit of handwringing and scorn vs. literal election denial and a resurrection.

This isn’t an even playing field, ya’ll.

Sure, democrats have done some things that make people feel disrespected, but again - and this can not be said enough - Trump accused a group of people living legally in America of eating pets, insulted generals and their families, and has spouted disrespectful comments about every person, who is not him, in this country at some point in time.

The man has called for massive deportations, which may include people legally living here as refugees; a day of violence, where police are free to do what they want; and, just throwing it out there, the assassination of his political rivals, and the return of firing squads.


But, sure, sure, it is the democrats who are constantly disrespecting folks.

Ok.

He may not be Hitler, but he sure as fuck has taken Putin’s playbook.
 
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ZenMode said:
"And, again, there were no regulations promulgated in 2021 and 2022 because the pandemic policy was still in force. "

Which obviously wasn't having an impact hence the 15 year high set in March of 2021.

I'm not disputing the existence of the 2023 regulation. I'm saying that it appears like the Biden admin ignored an issue until it was getting close to being politically damaging for the re-election bid, then started the process of creating regulations that just happen to hit 5 months before the election.

You see nothing out of the ordinary. Just BAU which, to me, is likely a facade based on the link of an article calling out the border crisis in March 2021.

I'm not saying I'm right. I'm not saying you're wrong. I'm just saying that you consistently take a very partisan view of your preferred political party's actions.
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Well, whatever it "appears," it's just wrong. Again, your choice is to be educated and speak the truth or to be an idiot and regurgitate bullshit. "It appears" is not an excuse for talking shit, any more than it was an excuse for JD Vance to lie about Springfield because "my constituents said."

The facts are:

1. There was no alternative to the Title 42 policy in 2021, especially not March 2021. Policies cannot be put together in two months. It's just impossible. The notice-and-comment rulemaking process itself takes longer. And if the rulemaking process is not followed to courts' satisfaction, the court will enjoin the policy change. In fact, this has happened many times during Biden's presidency -- and it's still happening even in the immigration context. This is just a fact and no amount of "it appears" bullshit can affect that.

2. There was no alternative to the Title 42 policy in 2022, because the pandemic regulations were still in force. The administration was not about to waste time on policy under a pandemic authority that was about to go away. So the administration started working on the post-pandemic policy in 2022.

3. 2024 is a completely meaningless date for understanding this process. Everything significant was begun well before January 1 of this year. No matter how much you want to say, "Biden ignored the issue until close to the election," it's quite simply not true. And the 2023 regulation, which you claim not to dispute, is proof of that. So yeah, you're either disputing its existence of you're just ignoring it. Either way, you're full of shit.

4. Nothing about what I've posted on this topic is partisan. It is textbook administrative law. You'd get the same response from Randy Barnett at G'Town Law (a staunch conservative) or John Manning at Harvard (also a conservative). This is how it works. It's mind-boggling that you would try to argue with me. I clerked on the DC Circuit, where the docket is 75% administrative law or more. I briefed many admin law cases in private practice. I taught admin law at a law school. I mean, what the fuck is wrong with you?
 
sringwal said:
Dunning-Kruger, Super.
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Yes, I know. It's Dunning-Kruger to the max. I'm not writing entirely or even primarily for his benefit. I'm hoping that others can learn some things as well, and be able to spread accurate information instead of bullshit.
 
But what you need to get is that Zen is much more politically knowledgeable than the average voter. He isn’t exactly where you think he is, because there are so many, who know so much less than he does, who think they are experts in the same way Zen does. It is shocking how little most people know about how politics works, and just how much of what they believe they know is because of constant screen time exposure to expert-level propaganda

You interact here, and probably a few other intellectual boards.

Go out, explore. Let the algorithm on Facebook, or some other social media website, and within a few days, you will be inundated with propaganda far darker than you imagine. Report back, and tell us where you are at in regards to the state of the world after.
 
Because that is what the Zens of the world are right about. Liberal elites in this country have no idea what reality is like for everyone else right now, because we tend to limit screen time and interact with other liberal elites when we are on the internet. Our lives away from devices are still fairly similar to everyone around us, but our online interactions are vastly different.

And more and more people’s virtual lives are their existence.

And liberals are badly losing the scrolling wars.

Worldwide.
 
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