If we look back over the last three cycles from the rise of Trump until today, you can see a complete repudiation of both the country club and neocon conservatives that had dominated the GOP since Watergate. Sure, plenty of these groups have and will continue to support Rs due to many reasons both cultural and $$$ but they have largely been co-opted by MAGA as of 2024, with evangelicals along for the ride due to their own policy goals. The Bush's and Cheney's of the world are about as welcome in the modern GOP as Harris and Biden. How did Trump do this? He created a movement that shook up the existing coalition and brought in new blood to the party. Sure, some voters were lost, but many more (or at least enough in the right places) were added to make up for it.
Meanwhile, the dems have been losing the working class. First the WWC, and now minorities as well. You can say that it was a reaction to running a Black man or a woman (x2), but Obama and Biden both won in 2012 and 2020 with enough of those voters in key states. Clearly there are enough of those voters that are persuadable for the right candidate even during the rise of Trump's movement. On balance, however, these voters are buying more of what the newly MAGA GOP is selling than they are from the dems. Some are now fully MAGA but the secret to future dem success is winning back those that are not.
In my view, Biden was an exception in 2020 due to COVID and as an extension of Obama's popularity. Honestly, without COVID, I think Trump would have beaten Biden. Now I don't expect a second Obama to appear out of the ether, but clearly the dems need to put forward a candidate (and downballot candidates in alignment with them) with broader mass appeal to these voters.
Dems should focus on creating a *movement*, not just triangulate to specific policy goals. In my view this *doesn't* mean running as far left as Sanders, but he was on the right track. As others have discussed, I think Bernie would have gotten killed in the general - this country is too conservative for his policies today. But how many Obama -> Trump or Sanders -> Trump voters are out there? Enough to chase and enough to win an election, even if not going fully leftist. Charisma, confidence, and humor from a leader of a new movement will contrast, combat, and beat the fear, isolationism, and grievance of the MAGA movement. Persuadable voters have shown that they could give a rip about detailed policy plans and it's about making them feel that they are a part of something.
The challenge is finding someone who can actually inspire and create this. Politics is now so personality driven these days that a new movement is the only way to win voters for more than 1 or 2 cycles at a time. Running a bland, establishment dem, even if capable of winning a single election, won't shift the paradigm enough to stop the current bleeding in the long run.
These are just my initial thoughts. Plenty of time to think this through and debate as a party, but we must be ready and lay the groundwork today to regain power and stop this madness when the time is again right.
Meanwhile, the dems have been losing the working class. First the WWC, and now minorities as well. You can say that it was a reaction to running a Black man or a woman (x2), but Obama and Biden both won in 2012 and 2020 with enough of those voters in key states. Clearly there are enough of those voters that are persuadable for the right candidate even during the rise of Trump's movement. On balance, however, these voters are buying more of what the newly MAGA GOP is selling than they are from the dems. Some are now fully MAGA but the secret to future dem success is winning back those that are not.
In my view, Biden was an exception in 2020 due to COVID and as an extension of Obama's popularity. Honestly, without COVID, I think Trump would have beaten Biden. Now I don't expect a second Obama to appear out of the ether, but clearly the dems need to put forward a candidate (and downballot candidates in alignment with them) with broader mass appeal to these voters.
Dems should focus on creating a *movement*, not just triangulate to specific policy goals. In my view this *doesn't* mean running as far left as Sanders, but he was on the right track. As others have discussed, I think Bernie would have gotten killed in the general - this country is too conservative for his policies today. But how many Obama -> Trump or Sanders -> Trump voters are out there? Enough to chase and enough to win an election, even if not going fully leftist. Charisma, confidence, and humor from a leader of a new movement will contrast, combat, and beat the fear, isolationism, and grievance of the MAGA movement. Persuadable voters have shown that they could give a rip about detailed policy plans and it's about making them feel that they are a part of something.
The challenge is finding someone who can actually inspire and create this. Politics is now so personality driven these days that a new movement is the only way to win voters for more than 1 or 2 cycles at a time. Running a bland, establishment dem, even if capable of winning a single election, won't shift the paradigm enough to stop the current bleeding in the long run.
These are just my initial thoughts. Plenty of time to think this through and debate as a party, but we must be ready and lay the groundwork today to regain power and stop this madness when the time is again right.
