2024 Political Polls

[CFordUNC]

August 2024 National Poll: Harris 50%, Trump 46% - Emerson Polling

Independents, Younger Voters Swing Toward Harris The first Emerson College Polling national survey following President…Full Release & Results

emersoncollegepolling.com

I’m getting tired of all of this winning!

 

[aGDevil2k]

Harris and Trump Tied in Head-to-Head Ballot Among Michigan Voters

<p>Michigan voters 50-plus are the most committed age group for voting in the 2024 election and appear to be on track to decide in the upcoming elections.</p>

www.aarp.org

Harris and Trump Tied in Head-to-Head Ballot Among Michigan Voters​

"AARP commissioned the bipartisan polling team of Fabrizio Ward (R) & Impact Research (D) to conduct a survey of voters in Michigan. The firms interviewed 1,382 likely voters, which includes a statewide representative sample of 600 likely voters, an oversample of 470 likely voters 50 and older, and an additional oversample of 312 Black likely voters 50 and older. The survey was conducted August 7–11, 2024 via live interviewer on landline (25%) and cellphone (37%), as well as SMS to web (38%). The sample was randomly drawn from the Michigan voter list."

I dont even understand this poll.

So AARP is saying they are basically tied with 50+?

 

[lawtig02]

I dont even understand this poll.

So AARP is saying they are basically tied with 50+?

AARP has never met a 50 it doesn’t love.

 

[Bigs23]

I dont even understand this poll.

So AARP is saying they are basically tied with 50+?

I dont even understand this poll.

So AARP is saying they are basically tied with 50+?

It appears this poll “oversampled” 50+ year old voters and yes they are tied in that oversampled poll. Seems sketchy.

 

[Geisterfahrer]

I dont even understand this poll.

So AARP is saying they are basically tied with 50+?

I don’t know Jack about polling methodology but that explanation does not pass the smell test.

 

[nycfan]

“… In a hypothetical two-way race between Harris and Trump, Harris holds the same six-point edge over Trump, 53 - 47 percent. Kennedy supporters would back Trump 53- 47 percent in a two-way race, indicating that Kennedy is playing a spoiler in favor of Harris.

… This survey was conducted August 11-15, 2024 using online panels, with a sample of 1,858 likely voters. The survey's margin of error is +/- 2.3%, ensuring a reliable snapshot of public opinion at the time of the study. Inter-nested quotas on gender, income, and race/ethnicity were utilized to guarantee that the data accurately represents the nation's diverse composition. …”

 

[uncgriff]

“… In a hypothetical two-way race between Harris and Trump, Harris holds the same six-point edge over Trump, 53 - 47 percent. Kennedy supporters would back Trump 53- 47 percent in a two-way race, indicating that Kennedy is playing a spoiler in favor of Harris.

… This survey was conducted August 11-15, 2024 using online panels, with a sample of 1,858 likely voters. The survey's margin of error is +/- 2.3%, ensuring a reliable snapshot of public opinion at the time of the study. Inter-nested quotas on gender, income, and race/ethnicity were utilized to guarantee that the data accurately represents the nation's diverse composition. …”

It moved

 

[theel4life]

“… In a hypothetical two-way race between Harris and Trump, Harris holds the same six-point edge over Trump, 53 - 47 percent. Kennedy supporters would back Trump 53- 47 percent in a two-way race, indicating that Kennedy is playing a spoiler in favor of Harris.

… This survey was conducted August 11-15, 2024 using online panels, with a sample of 1,858 likely voters. The survey's margin of error is +/- 2.3%, ensuring a reliable snapshot of public opinion at the time of the study. Inter-nested quotas on gender, income, and race/ethnicity were utilized to guarantee that the data accurately represents the nation's diverse composition. …”

 

[CFordUNC]

“… In a hypothetical two-way race between Harris and Trump, Harris holds the same six-point edge over Trump, 53 - 47 percent. Kennedy supporters would back Trump 53- 47 percent in a two-way race, indicating that Kennedy is playing a spoiler in favor of Harris.

… This survey was conducted August 11-15, 2024 using online panels, with a sample of 1,858 likely voters. The survey's margin of error is +/- 2.3%, ensuring a reliable snapshot of public opinion at the time of the study. Inter-nested quotas on gender, income, and race/ethnicity were utilized to guarantee that the data accurately represents the nation's diverse composition. …”

 

[WaynetheDrain]

“… In a hypothetical two-way race between Harris and Trump, Harris holds the same six-point edge over Trump, 53 - 47 percent. Kennedy supporters would back Trump 53- 47 percent in a two-way race, indicating that Kennedy is playing a spoiler in favor of Harris.

… This survey was conducted August 11-15, 2024 using online panels, with a sample of 1,858 likely voters. The survey's margin of error is +/- 2.3%, ensuring a reliable snapshot of public opinion at the time of the study. Inter-nested quotas on gender, income, and race/ethnicity were utilized to guarantee that the data accurately represents the nation's diverse composition. …”

I’ve never heard of Outward Intelligence. Are they reputable?

 

[aGDevil2k]

I’ve never heard of Outward Intelligence. Are they reputable.

Well you know with that name they aren't Trump internals

 

[altmin]

On the face of it, Harris’s small lead in the national polls and trends in swing states don’t look like enough for her to be the favorite in the electoral college. According to our model, Trump continues to lead in a majority of the battleground states — and if you count up the electoral votes and award them to the candidates leading in those states, Trump comes in at 283 and Harris at 255. The first to 270 wins.
The reason Harris is now the favorite is because Harris has closed the gap with Trump in Sun Belt states enough to open a second path to the presidency.

 

[Duke Mu]

I dont even understand this poll.

So AARP is saying they are basically tied with 50+?

AARP Membership criteria begins at age 50, not 65.

 

[Duke Mu]

Harris is sneaking ahead, but the trend lines are more important than the actual numbers which are now in the margin of error.

RCP leans a little right because of the Rasmussen poll inclusion in the average.

2024 General Election: Trump vs. Harris Polls | RealClearPolling

Explore poll data on the 2024 General Election between Trump and Harris with RealClearPolling. Uncover trends and gain insight into electoral dynamics for key races and decisive outcomes.

www.realclearpolling.com

The trend is Kamala's friend but there's a lot of work to do in the swing states. She's made up about 10 points.

2024 General Election: Trump vs. Harris Polls | RealClearPolling

Explore poll data on the 2024 General Election between Trump and Harris with RealClearPolling. Uncover trends and gain insight into electoral dynamics for key races and decisive outcomes.

www.realclearpolling.com

Another reason for optimism - enthusiasm for Trump I believe is low and waning even further.

Furthermore, feeling good about the economy: waning inflation, job growth increased GDP, good stock market, reduced O&G futures, upcoming interest rate cuts will be a lagging indicator and more important in October than today.

 

[Rock]

I'm sorry for bringing betting into this but it's amazing the change that has happened in just a short time.

On July 31, Trump was up 21% on Kamala on poly market. She is now up 10%.




Trump was up big on predictit but is now down 11 cents.




Not a done deal by any means but I'd rather be in Harris' shoes at the moment.

 

[quakerdevil]

On the face of it, Harris’s small lead in the national polls and trends in swing states don’t look like enough for her to be the favorite in the electoral college. According to our model, Trump continues to lead in a majority of the battleground states — and if you count up the electoral votes and award them to the candidates leading in those states, Trump comes in at 283 and Harris at 255. The first to 270 wins.
The reason Harris is now the favorite is because Harris has closed the gap with Trump in Sun Belt states enough to open a second path to the presidency.

I wonder what data is being included in the averages. Biden data before he dropped out? Because this conflicts with most of the polling data from the past few weeks.

 

[altmin]

I wonder what data is being included in the averages. Biden data before he dropped out? Because this conflicts with most of the polling data from the past few weeks.

Yeah it stuck out to me as an outlier, which itself seemed to make it news.

 

[aGDevil2k]

Yeah something seems wonky about what they were doing. That doesnt line up with any other site over the last 2 weeks.

 

[Duke Mu]

I'm sorry for bringing betting into this but it's amazing the change that has happened in just a short time.

On July 31, Trump was up 21% on Kamala on poly market. She is now up 10%.




Trump was up big on predictit but is now down 11 cents.




Not a done deal by any means but I'd rather be in Harris' shoes at the moment.

Harris is up 9 on Stossel. No small feat.

Election Betting Odds

Live betting odds on the 2024 presidential election, and more! Who will win? Biden, Trump, Harris, DeSantis?...

electionbettingodds.com

 

[uncgriff]

even if harris is really up 20 points I want the polls to show a 1% Trump lead.

turnout, turnout, turnout.