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2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

  • Thread starter Thread starter nycfan
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  • Politics 
lawtig02 said:
I don’t disagree with that. But as I read the poll, Trump isn’t running far enough ahead of the senate candidates to win the election. It will be close, but he’s behind.
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Trump never finishes ahead of down ballot candidates.

The hurricane "bump," which was a flurry of more right leaning polls is over. The race is tied in the EC. Kamala up 3-5% nationally.
 
superrific said:
Ah, I see who leaked it now. Ted Cruz. And a bunch of Republicans who want the Dems to throw money into the void in TX.

One thing people forget: the Dems can keep pumping money into MT to support Tester, even in a losing cause, because MT is cheap. TX, by contrast, is not.
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They're creating fake momentum to make Trump feel good.
 
Final rural/suburban Orange County sign sample poll on my way to school dropoff today.
Rural areas only: Harris 12 - Trump 6
Total (one way): Harris 29 - Trump 8 (both of his inside the city, and 3 of the 8 total, were new easement signs likely put up by the county GOP)

4 years ago, it was honestly closer to tied, and the rural area was way more Trump than Biden...like about 4-1
 
aGDevil2k said:
Final rural/suburban Orange County sign sample poll on my way to school dropoff today.
Rural areas only: Harris 12 - Trump 6
Total (one way): Harris 29 - Trump 8 (both of his inside the city, and 3 of the 8 total, were new easement signs likely put up by the county GOP)

4 years ago, it was honestly closer to tied, and the rural area was way more Trump than Biden...like about 4-1
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This is an example of what I’ve said before about it just not feeling like it’s going to be close…at least by American election standards.

Things like fundraising, voter registration spikes, crowd sizes for rallies (or lack thereof on one side), overall momentum/enthusiasm makes it feel like we’ll all be sleeping well on election night by midnight Eastern. But the polling is still nowhere near comfortable. Something feels “off”.
 
CBS:

“Donald Trump has a slight 3-point edge over Kamala Harris in Arizona, boosted by the issues of the economy and the border. Harris has advantages with voters who prioritize abortion and the state of democracy, keeping this race close.…”

www.cbsnews.com

CBS News Trump-Harris poll finds Trump with slight edge in close race in Arizona

In the race for the U.S. Senate seat in Arizona, Democrat Ruben Gallego leads Republican Kari Lake by 9 points.
www.cbsnews.com www.cbsnews.com
 
“… Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris remain virtually deadlocked in a new Carolina Journal poll of likely voters.

Trump tops Harris 47.2% to 46.6%, well within the poll’s margin of error. Around 4% of the electorate remains undecided. Harris’ performance has ticked up slightly since August when she won 44.1% support compared to Trump’s 47.2%, but Trump’s advantage has widened since September. …”

 
nycfan said:
“… Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris remain virtually deadlocked in a new Carolina Journal poll of likely voters.

Trump tops Harris 47.2% to 46.6%, well within the poll’s margin of error. Around 4% of the electorate remains undecided. Harris’ performance has ticked up slightly since August when she won 44.1% support compared to Trump’s 47.2%, but Trump’s advantage has widened since September. …”

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That's one of the most conservative pollsters NC has
 


A Mystery $30 Million Wave of Pro-Trump Bets Has Moved a Popular Prediction Market​

Four Polymarket accounts have systematically placed frequent wagers on a Trump election victory​


“…
Trump’s gains on Polymarket have cheered his supporters, and they have been followed by the odds shifting in Trump’s favor in other betting markets. Elon Musk flagged Trump’s growing lead on Polymarket to his 200 million X followers on Oct. 6, praising the concept of betting markets. “More accurate than polls, as actual money is on the line,” Musk posted.

But the surge might be a mirage manufactured by a group of four Polymarket accounts that have collectively pumped about $30 million of crypto into bets that Trump will win.

“There’s strong reason to believe they are the same entity,” said Miguel Morel, chief executive of Arkham Intelligence, a blockchain analysis firm that examined the accounts.

… The accounts betting big on Trump—Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro and Michie—were all funded by deposits from Kraken, a U.S.-based crypto exchange, according to Arkham. They behave in a similar fashion, systematically placing frequent bets on Trump and stepping up the size of their bets at the same time, Arkham found. The oldest of the accounts was created in June, while the newest was created this month.

The accounts have plowed most of their money into straightforward bets on Trump’s winning the presidency, but they have also put millions of dollars into bets that he will win such swing states as Pennsylvania, as well as long-shot bets on Trump’s winning the popular vote—smaller side markets also available on Polymarket.

Adam Cochran, a veteran crypto investor who has monitored the activity on Polymarket, said the betting spree appears to be an attempt to generate a sense of momentum for Trump going into Election Day. If Trump loses, his favorable odds in the betting markets could bolster arguments that the election was stolen from him, said Cochran, who described himself as a right-of-center voter backing Harris …”
 
nycfan said:


A Mystery $30 Million Wave of Pro-Trump Bets Has Moved a Popular Prediction Market​

Four Polymarket accounts have systematically placed frequent wagers on a Trump election victory​


“…
Trump’s gains on Polymarket have cheered his supporters, and they have been followed by the odds shifting in Trump’s favor in other betting markets. Elon Musk flagged Trump’s growing lead on Polymarket to his 200 million X followers on Oct. 6, praising the concept of betting markets. “More accurate than polls, as actual money is on the line,” Musk posted.

But the surge might be a mirage manufactured by a group of four Polymarket accounts that have collectively pumped about $30 million of crypto into bets that Trump will win.

“There’s strong reason to believe they are the same entity,” said Miguel Morel, chief executive of Arkham Intelligence, a blockchain analysis firm that examined the accounts.

… The accounts betting big on Trump—Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro and Michie—were all funded by deposits from Kraken, a U.S.-based crypto exchange, according to Arkham. They behave in a similar fashion, systematically placing frequent bets on Trump and stepping up the size of their bets at the same time, Arkham found. The oldest of the accounts was created in June, while the newest was created this month.

The accounts have plowed most of their money into straightforward bets on Trump’s winning the presidency, but they have also put millions of dollars into bets that he will win such swing states as Pennsylvania, as well as long-shot bets on Trump’s winning the popular vote—smaller side markets also available on Polymarket.

Adam Cochran, a veteran crypto investor who has monitored the activity on Polymarket, said the betting spree appears to be an attempt to generate a sense of momentum for Trump going into Election Day. If Trump loses, his favorable odds in the betting markets could bolster arguments that the election was stolen from him, said Cochran, who described himself as a right-of-center voter backing Harris …”
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Yea, Trump's got a really solid lead, so no need for any of you on-the-fencers need to pull the trigger for him. Keep Harris out of office *and* get to say "I didn't vote for him" at the same time!
 
lawtig02 said:
I think, but am not sure, the "firewall" goal is what the Dems think they need in early voting to maintain an advantage during the Election Day vote.
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+400K seems crazy high to reach.

“NPA” probably means “ no party affiliation”
 
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