2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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Bad news on NC. Being from Georgia, I have this concern about my state. Not sure I see a problem scrolling thru early voting by county thou. My concern is that there is no Raphael Warnock or Stacey Abrams on the ballot this time around.
Not that bad. In 2020, white turnout was 11 points higher than black turnout. It's about 8 now. And the gender gap so far is a bit wider than it was.
 
Not that bad. In 2020, white turnout was 11 points higher than black turnout. It's about 8 now. And the gender gap so far is a bit wider than it was.
This. Need that black vote turnout to be 10% or less than white turnout. Also if R/D/U turnout stays close then that's great too. There will be more separation as we get closer, but if U can be less than 9% of R and if D can be 5% less than R then thats great.
 
This. Need that black vote turnout to be 10% or less than white turnout. Also if R/D/U turnout stays close then that's great too. There will be more separation as we get closer, but if U can be less than 9% of R and if D can be 5% less than R then thats great.
I only have personal knowledge about Mecklenburg, and I have no doubt we'll continue to lag behind most other counties in terms of total eligible voter participation, but I'll be very surprised if the final tallies show black turnout in NC at less than 2020 levels. As I said earlier, it may not reach 2008 or 2012 levels, but I'm confident it will be better than 2016 or 2020.
 
I only have personal knowledge about Mecklenburg, and I have no doubt we'll continue to lag behind most other counties in terms of total eligible voter participation, but I'll be very surprised if the final tallies show black turnout in NC at less than 2020 levels. As I said earlier, it may not reach 2008 or 2012 levels, but I'm confident it will be better than 2016 or 2020.
So far, ratio of Wake:Meck total votes seems about what it was in 2020, by my eyeballs.
 
With those numbers if 44% of those Will probably vote folks actually vote Harris wins. Less than 44% and Trump wins.
Probably usually means above 50%. I'm curious what it means in poll-speak, though. Like if I tell my wife I will probably take care of something, it's pretty certain I will. If I tell my 10 year old that I will probably get him a toy next month, it's unlikely I will. So when someone tells that to a pollster, I wonder what it means.

Also, "Certain to vote" is not actually a 100% chance. It might be pretty high, but I would always prefer a vote already cast to one that is "certain" to be cast later.

And finally, I really wish that pollsters would start reporting decimals on their polls. I mean, in a sense, it's foolish because the margin or error would swamp that increased precision, but in the sense that people are constantly crunching different numbers to analyze things because it distracts them temporarily from the fact that actually it's out of our control, I'd like the decimal. Because this calculation goes quite differently if it's really 50.4/46.6 than 49.6/47.4
 
Probably usually means above 50%. I'm curious what it means in poll-speak, though. Like if I tell my wife I will probably take care of something, it's pretty certain I will. If I tell my 10 year old that I will probably get him a toy next month, it's unlikely I will. So when someone tells that to a pollster, I wonder what it means.

Also, "Certain to vote" is not actually a 100% chance. It might be pretty high, but I would always prefer a vote already cast to one that is "certain" to be cast later.

And finally, I really wish that pollsters would start reporting decimals on their polls. I mean, in a sense, it's foolish because the margin or error would swamp that increased precision, but in the sense that people are constantly crunching different numbers to analyze things because it distracts them temporarily from the fact that actually it's out of our control, I'd like the decimal. Because this calculation goes quite differently if it's really 50.4/46.6 than 49.6/47.4
I was doing the same math. Probably has to mean more than 44%, right? We've got this in the bag!
 
On the topic of how many people have voted early....

I have done a little -- only a little -- phone canvassing for the Harris campaign in NC. I live in SC, but I've called people in NC. I spoke with two women who I believe are Black and they said they'll be voting for Harris but have not voted yet. One said she teaches school, if I remember correctly, and just hasn't had time yet, and the other lady seemed to me to possibly be emphatic about voting on election day.

That isn't much data to go on, obviously. But it is a reminder that people have a variety of reasons for not taking advantage of early voting.

Oh, and I spoke with a woman who I believe is white, and she said she's for Harris but hasn't had a chance to vote yet because of her work schedule.
 
Lots of polls is seems have Trump ahead of Harris in PA. That’s worrisome to me. Isn’t it something like whoever wins PA has 85% chance of winning the election?
 
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