Arizona seems to be reverting to its pre-pandemic Republican mean:
“… Most voters in Arizona vote early. It’s been that way for decades. We are a pioneer of early voting. If you just look at the returns and how heavily Republican they are, the pattern is very much a pre-2020 pattern where Republicans are dominating. No one knows how they voted, but you’ve got to think that a lot of those are going to be for Trump and down-ballot Republicans, and among the independent voters too. So just looking at the trend lines, Republicans are up, Democrats are down, independents are dramatically down. Those are going to be the deciders, and Republicans are feeling pretty good. …
What I’m saying is that whatever is happening on the left doesn’t seem to be working yet. And Charlie Kirk’s organization is based in Arizona, and so I think that’s what makes it the outlier in these other states. They know Arizona very well. They’ve been here for more than a decade. They definitely see this election as their last stand. This election is either going to make or break Turning Point.
… These are the scenarios that Republicans are hoping for: There’s the pro-Trump wing, which hopes that Trump wins Arizona, Lake loses by a margin that’s too big to contest in a serious way, and Trump wins the presidency. And the anti-Trump Republican wing of the party hopes that Trump wins Arizona to put to rest his denialism, but loses nationally. And that Kari Lake loses by a big margin too large to contest. …”
Yvonne Wingett Sanchez, an expert in Grand Canyon State politics, on Kamala Harris’s uphill battle.
nymag.com
