2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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dukeman92 said:
Yeah man… this race has been pretty stable for a while. She’s gonna crush him.
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Yep. Even with yesterday's outlier polls by Atlas Intel (a Brazilian pollster that doesn't disclose its methodology and is strongly suspected to be associated with Orban's regime), Kamala's small lead in the national polls remains almost unchanged, as does Trump remaining below the 47% threshold. Again, as said many, many time, national polling does not matter now. But the trend lines do show the incredible stability of the race ever since Kalama became the nominee.

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HeelInTheOzarks said:
I saw her on a YouTube clip with Steve Schmidt and she seemed super bullish on Trump. Had me wondering who her sources are and why does she think this way. Now in a few days it’s flipped when literally nothing changed.
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It's them believing that more GOP early votes = more GOP total votes. Not that Bubba and Tammy-Lou are actually just voting 2 weeks earlier than they always have before.
 
lawtig02 said:
Yep. Even with yesterday's outlier polls by Atlas Intel (a Brazilian pollster that doesn't disclose its methodology and is strongly suspected to be associated with Orban's regime), Kamala's small lead in the national polls remains almost unchanged, as does Trump remaining below the 47% threshold. Again, as said many, many time, national polling does not matter now. But the trend lines do show the incredible stability of the race ever since Kalama became the nominee.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

ABC News – Breaking News, Latest News and Videos

ABC News is your trusted source on political news stories and videos. Get the latest coverage and analysis on everything from the Trump presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com projects.fivethirtyeight.com
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Why is 538 even including polls like Atlas?
 
I think it's funny how the Dems always have more early voters than the Pubs. Like the Pubs think their vote counts more if they do it on election day.
 
heelinhell said:
www.rawstory.com

New poll suggests Dems’ election results could mirror Obama’s 2008 victory

Democrats have another reason to be optimistic about Tuesday's presidential election after the release of a new Gallup poll.Gallup, which is considered one of the more reputable polling organizations operating today, doesn't do election horse-race polls of candidates. However, it does measure...
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There's been a lot of commentary recently suggesting 2012 is the best comparison, but I've had a sneaking suspicion it's actually 2008. That year was dominated by the financial crisis, of course, but there are a number of other indicators that seem to apply.
 
So in 2016, the last week had lots of rumblings about cracks and warnings for Clinton. I mean yeah the Comey stuff, but also the lack of focus, danger with white voters etc.

Those same rumblings are happening about Trump this time around.
 
aGDevil2k said:
So in 2016, the last week had lots of rumblings about cracks and warnings for Clinton. I mean yeah the Comey stuff, but also the lack of focus, danger with white voters etc.

Those same rumblings are happening about Trump this time around.
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Probably also helps that I have Comey locked in my basement. He's well fed, though, and I haven't blocked Fox News on YTTV yet.
 
DiehardHeelFan said:
nycfan’s post on the previous page from the WP showed early votes to be heavily for Harris but also noted Clinton had similar leads in 2016. There are more early votes this election and the electorate and stakes are different. That’s not to say it can’t happen again, but like seeing Harris up big early. Just have to build on that. Also looks like she’s hitting every swing state down the stretch.

Saw David Plouffe on Chris Hayes last night and all he would say is that it’s a tight race in every swing state but he’d rather be in the position of the Harris campaign right now. Said it more than once. His expression was that of a stone faced poker player, but it looked a little like he was holding back ha.
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I can’t imagine David Plouffe saying anything else at this point…….he could be looking at internal polls showing Harris down 2-3 points in each swing state; and, he’d say, “I’d rather be Harris than Trump.”

That said, it’s a damn good thing that Plouffe and the other Obama professionals are at high levels in the Harris Campaign and not the Robbie Mook clown car show from 2016.
 
aGDevil2k said:
It's them believing that more GOP early votes = more GOP total votes. Not that Bubba and Tammy-Lou are actually just voting 2 weeks earlier than they always have before.
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The polls suck because there is no way to truly model who's going to vote. They kinda had a good hold on it for a while but the last 3 cycles have busted it. The fundamentals point all in one direction but the pollsters and legacy media are so afraid of missing like 2016 again that they are ignoring all that. They undercounted Trump before because he was the candidate with the energy behind his campaign. Now he's the opposite and they're still giving him the weight that they think they missed back then. Bizarre.
 
CFordUNC said:
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I do think there's a good chance we get three or four Trump stories over the weekend that dwarf the Cheney story. Buckle up. Trump in panic mode is like a honey badger on bath salts.

ETA -- And let's not forget, Trump knows he's fighting not to be president of the United States, but to stay out of jail.
 
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