2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

[superrific]

I'm not sure this is a logical argument. It's assuming that state partisan leans are the same as they have been in the last eight years, which seems (at least from poll data) not to be the case now.

But I think the real reason is simple: nobody is actually excited about voting for Trump right now. Not even his base. They will, and they are turning out to vote for him because they're inexplicably shit-scared of Kamala even though the last 12 years of Dem administrations have been good for most people. But anyway, if your vote requires you to plug your nose, and you don't live in a swing state, then why bother?

It is entirely possible that the Dems enthusiasm advantage will show up mostly where it doesn't matter. Hopefully not. Probably not. But it's possible. When I lived in NYC I sometimes didn't vote. I was too busy and it didn't mean anything and I was not excited about John Kerry. If I had been living in Ohio, my attitude would have been different.

 

[lawtig02]

We love the straight D don’t we folks

Mine had just one small curve in it, and that was because of this sexy man.

 

[JCTarheel82]

Mine had just one small curve in it, and that was because of this sexy man.

They have medications for that now, ya know.

 

[Wheels81]

We love the straight D don’t we folks

 

[dukeofhoops]

We love the straight D don’t we folks

 

[CFordUNC]

Mine had just one small curve in it, and that was because of this sexy man.

A good half or so of the races in Alabama are Republicans running unopposed, so for every single one of those I wrote in “Generic Democrat” because fuck every single person in the Republican Party right now.

 

[HeelInTheOzarks]

Shocker: the international betting markets that Elon and others have been harping on are likely being heavily manipulated (this was already discussed/reported, but this is a newer story):

Exclusive: Election betting site Polymarket is rife with fake ‘wash’ trading, researchers say

Blockchain evidence points to users carrying out market manipulation to inflate trading volumes on the popular political betting platform.

fortune.com

(Also, note that Polymarket has trended from a high of 67% or so in favor of Trump back down to 62%, pretty much immediately after Elon started making his favorite teen boy joke by hoping it would get to "69.420%"

I also think about the people who are online gambling degenerates, stock market bros, Gen Z zynternet losers etc and the Venn diagram of them with Trumpers is basically a circle.

If this market needs juice on both sides, they have to make Trump the favorite, right? If Harris was 55% they’d get literally all the money on Trump.

 

[CFordUNC]

 

[lightbluenc]

Keep it coming CF!

 

[dsgb]

Hopefully all of those undecided voters don’t change their ballots since Joe Biden called Trump supporters garbage!!!!!!

I want to believe

 

[dsgb]

We love the straight D don’t we folks

 

[nycfan]

 

[Calheel]

How did they get to over 100% voting? 55.6+44.6=100.2. Even with rounding that doesn't make sense. I think I've discovered Trump's next fraud theory for Georgia.

 

[WaynetheDrain]

“You merely adopted the fascism. I was born in it, molded by it.”

 

[WaynetheDrain]

How did they get to over 100% voting? 55.6+44.6=100.2. Even with rounding that doesn't make sense. I think I've discovered Trump's next fraud theory for Georgia.

That’s all the Democrats voting multiple times. Obvi.

 

[finesse]

How did they get to over 100% voting? 55.6+44.6=100.2. Even with rounding that doesn't make sense. I think I've discovered Trump's next fraud theory for Georgia.

What if it were the % of registered voters in each group? Trump might not buy it.

 

[nycfan]

Echelon’s numbers are much better for Trump in swing states.

 

[lawtig02]

Echelon’s numbers are much better for Trump in swing states.

It's a red waver. Not the worst of them, but it's definitely right leaning.

 

[CFordUNC]

Now THIS is my kind of hopium, where a 319-219 EC victory is deemed "certain" and a 417-85 ED victory is considered "possible"

 

[WaynetheDrain]

Echelon’s numbers are much better for Trump in swing states.

Echelon has Trump +6 (!) in Pennsylvania. Supposedly they are pretty highly rated, but that margin is stretching the limits of credibility.