2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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The Seltzer poll is not "almost certainly accurate." For one thing, it has a margin of error. Second, while Seltzer has been great in the past, it doesn't mean she will continue to be accurate. And she had one election, in 2018, where she was off by a fair margin (although not so bad for a state poll).

The importance of the Seltzer poll isn't so much the top line, but rather the magnitude. Even if it's wrong by 5 points it's still good for Kamala. Seltzer would have to be VERY wrong for the polling in Iowa to favor Trump. And that's good. But it's one state and one poll.
 
DantesHair said:
I’m also surprised that white females go trump, but less so about the numbers that turn out as the rationale. Do they have no self-respect? I can’t imagine my wife or daughters voting for a person that degrades women, has cheated on multiple wives, lies constantly, has been convicted of sexual assault, and has no moral fiber in his body. I can understand why dumb male boomers and zoomers vote for him because their lives didn’t turn out as expected and they don’t want minorities to have additional power/influence or are in it for the lulz, but expect women to be able to be more rational than those morons.
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Or maybe, just maybe, white women can think for themselves and your impression of what their motivations are (or should be) are inaccurate.

Or is that not possible?
 
The other thing the Seltzer poll does add, to amplify a post already made, is a poll that isn't subject to herding. That's in part because a) Seltzer is so secure she DGAF about one-time accuracy; and b) when there are so few polls, herding is impossible. And thus it's interesting to look at the underpolled states. Nobody is herding on NE-1 either.

The herding seems worse this year than in the past.
 
I took a bit of heat on here last Sunday for stating I think Trump will win. Not because of freaking out but because - while I've seen the swing state polls - the national polling margins have never favored Kamala the way they most often have to favor a Democrat in order to win. Small sampling, but I did call 2016 and 2020 correctly. Not because of any expertise, obviously. Just a dude with a WiFi connection and a keyboard.

However, I have become much more optimistic about Kamala's chances since the MSG fallout. I didn't expect it to move the needle. I mean, nothing seems to do so with this guy. But this truly seems to have done so. Amazing, because it wasn't even him that said it.

So, I'm cautiously optimistic about her chances now. And I'll just leave it at that.
 
HeelYeah2012 said:
Or maybe, just maybe, white women can think for themselves and your impression of what their motivations are (or should be) are inaccurate.

Or is that not possible?
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Theres obviously something going on for a majority of white women to historically vote Trump. But here’s to hoping that changes this cycle and there is a sentiment that “enough is enough”.
 
CFordUNC said:
I won’t try to speak for all the women who vote for Trump, but I would imagine the overwhelming, overwhelming vast majority have been brainwashed by the mental disease that is evangelical Christianity. All of the women in my extended family who are voting for Trump have Southern Baptist instilled belief systems that would make the Handmaid’s Tale blush. By contrast, every single one of the college educated women in my extended orbit, even if they are more moderate or conservative, are unimaginably repulsed by Trump and his movement. That’s where the dividing line of demarcation is, IMO: between educated/professional women and their counterparts.
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I disagree

I think it’s because white women identify as white first and women second. Dobbs decision is the breakthrough that got a lot of them to think as a woman first as a white person second.
 
The real Trump Derangement Syndrome is thinking he is strong, savvy or possesses some magic.

He's a con man and the con can only last for so long.

He's also a moral sewer of a human.

And he may take the biggest ass-kicking electorally we've seen in a long time.

But he's definitely losing and whatever schemes he has planned wont work because he is dumb and so are the people around him.
 
CFordUNC said:
I won’t try to speak for all the women who vote for Trump, but I would imagine the overwhelming, overwhelming vast majority have been brainwashed by the mental disease that is evangelical Christianity. All of the women in my extended family who are voting for Trump have Southern Baptist instilled belief systems that would make the Handmaid’s Tale blush. By contrast, every single one of the college educated women in my extended orbit, even if they are more moderate or conservative, are unimaginably repulsed by Trump and his movement. That’s where the dividing line of demarcation is, IMO: between educated/professional women and their counterparts.
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My sister is a Trump supporter. She is agnostic and has an ECU degree but married a blue collar guy without a college degree and never left Greenville. Still live there 45 years later. They don’t like educated “liberal elites” like her 3 siblings who all live in big cities and have good professional jobs with 401Ks. They have only Social Security to look forward to in a few years. Both are very racist as well.
 
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