2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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How do a majority of people of any age think that the guy who tried to overthrow the legitimately elected government is more patriotic than my left testicle, let alone a woman who has spent her career in public service?
Well, personally, I've never seen your left testicle stand for the national anthem or salute the flag, much less hug the flag.

I think the real question here is, does your left testicle really love America?
 
Yes, to a degree. I also believe a degree of it is the spasm of relief his parishioners get from ttump saying the quiet thing out loud. Holding in your bigoted beliefs amidst public settings can be tiresome; then ttump comes along and calls immigrants trash, makes fun of people's disabilities, tells women only a man can protect them, etc. etc.
I think it goes a step further than just relief. I think those of us who aren't MAGA either forget or don't understand how much certain parts of our society believe there is actual comedy in making fun of others as a means of expressing superiority over them.

I think at some level, we all get it. Everyone likes seeing the jerk/boss/celebrity brought down a peg through humor. Especially if that humor pokes directly at their foibles related to their advanced status. It is, often, genuinely funny as long as the joke teller is punching up.

I grew up in semi-rural NC and now live here after spending 15+ years other places. My home county is MAGA country, as it went nearly 75% for Trump in both 2016 and 2020. And I can tell you there is still a significant number of folks who find genuine comedy in making fun of those beneath them on society's ladder. You make fun of the speach patterns of those who have a different accent than you (or, even worse, have some sort of disability), you make fun of the clothes of people who are poorer than you and/or are of different cultures than you, you make fun of the foods people eat when they eat things that you don't like (or don't consider food), you make fun of the behaviors or markers of those in groups you think are abnormal or should be outcasts. It's a pretty deeply entrenched view of the world that folks who are different than you and, especially those who are "lower" than you, are ripe for being mocked and made the butt of a joke.

It took me a few years of my young adulthood to unlearn that way of viewing the world, but I can attest that it still exists among many in the community where I live. And, for those folks, I don't doubt that they find Trump genuinely funny because they find humor in making fun of the very people of whom Trump makes fun.
 
Harvard Youth Poll

18-29 year-old likely voters (two-way match-up)

Harris 64%
Trump 32%

18-29 year-old likely voters (women)

Harris 70%
Trump 23%



"
A national poll released today by the Institute of Politics (IOP) at the Harvard Kennedy School indicates that among 18-to-29-year-olds nationwide, Vice President Kamala Harris holds a commanding 31-point lead over former President Donald Trump among likely voters in a multi-candidate matchup. The 48th Harvard Youth Poll shows Harris leading Trump 64% to 32% among likely voters in a two-way hypothetical scenario with her advantage expanding as young people become more engaged in the electoral process.

The poll also finds:

  • A significant enthusiasm gap between young Democrats and Republicans, with 74% of young Democrats saying they will "definitely" vote, compared to 60% of young Republicans.
  • A widening gender gap, nearly doubling from 17 points in the Spring poll to 30 points now, with Harris leading 70% to 23% among likely female voters.
  • Harris outperforming Trump on key personal qualities and issues, with substantial leads in empathy (+33), relatability (+24), honesty (+22), climate change (+32), abortion (+31), health care (+26), and gun violence prevention (+25) among all young adults.
  • Harris's job approval as Vice President has significantly improved, increasing from 32% in the Spring poll to 44% now.
  • Strong support for progressive policies among young Americans, with 74% favoring capping prescription drug prices and 59% supporting a nationwide law to legalize abortion.
  • Overwhelming rejection of Project 2025 among young Americans, with only 6% viewing it favorably compared to 48% unfavorably. Even among Republicans, we find 14% viewing it favorably and 23% unfavorably.
  • The impact of social media, with 53% of young adults encountering memes about Harris online in the last month, 34% of whom say it positively influenced their opinion. Conversely, 56% have seen memes about Trump, with 26% reporting a negative impact on their perception. ..."
 

Half of voters plan to cast ballots early, with a huge partisan split​


"Fifty-one percent of voters say they'll vote early, either by mail or in person, with Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump 61%-35% (a 26-point margin) among those [early] voters.

By comparison, Trump leads by 20 points, 57%-37%, with the group of voters who plan to vote on Election Day, which accounts for 45% of the electorate in the poll. It's a smaller lead among a slightly smaller share of the electorate than Harris has over those early voters.

"Either the margin has to close among [those] voting early, or Republican margins on Election Day have to be bigger than this to win," said Bill McInturff, the Republican pollster who conducted the NBC News poll with Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates. ..."
 

Half of voters plan to cast ballots early, with a huge partisan split​


"Fifty-one percent of voters say they'll vote early, either by mail or in person, with Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump 61%-35% (a 26-point margin) among those [early] voters.

By comparison, Trump leads by 20 points, 57%-37%, with the group of voters who plan to vote on Election Day, which accounts for 45% of the electorate in the poll. It's a smaller lead among a slightly smaller share of the electorate than Harris has over those early voters.

"Either the margin has to close among [those] voting early, or Republican margins on Election Day have to be bigger than this to win," said Bill McInturff, the Republican pollster who conducted the NBC News poll with Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates. ..."
pray donna paulsen GIF
 
Harvard Youth Poll

18-29 year-old likely voters (two-way match-up)

Harris 64%
Trump 32%

18-29 year-old likely voters (women)

Harris 70%
Trump 23%



"
A national poll released today by the Institute of Politics (IOP) at the Harvard Kennedy School indicates that among 18-to-29-year-olds nationwide, Vice President Kamala Harris holds a commanding 31-point lead over former President Donald Trump among likely voters in a multi-candidate matchup. The 48th Harvard Youth Poll shows Harris leading Trump 64% to 32% among likely voters in a two-way hypothetical scenario with her advantage expanding as young people become more engaged in the electoral process.

The poll also finds:

  • A significant enthusiasm gap between young Democrats and Republicans, with 74% of young Democrats saying they will "definitely" vote, compared to 60% of young Republicans.
  • A widening gender gap, nearly doubling from 17 points in the Spring poll to 30 points now, with Harris leading 70% to 23% among likely female voters.
  • Harris outperforming Trump on key personal qualities and issues, with substantial leads in empathy (+33), relatability (+24), honesty (+22), climate change (+32), abortion (+31), health care (+26), and gun violence prevention (+25) among all young adults.
  • Harris's job approval as Vice President has significantly improved, increasing from 32% in the Spring poll to 44% now.
  • Strong support for progressive policies among young Americans, with 74% favoring capping prescription drug prices and 59% supporting a nationwide law to legalize abortion.
  • Overwhelming rejection of Project 2025 among young Americans, with only 6% viewing it favorably compared to 48% unfavorably. Even among Republicans, we find 14% viewing it favorably and 23% unfavorably.
  • The impact of social media, with 53% of young adults encountering memes about Harris online in the last month, 34% of whom say it positively influenced their opinion. Conversely, 56% have seen memes about Trump, with 26% reporting a negative impact on their perception. ..."

The point of all this was to promote a Trump interview on [Logan] Paul’s podcast and YouTube show.

It was all part of Trump and JD Vance’s months-long tour of podcasters and influencers — almost all of them men, many of them young.

The conversations are often friendly and chatty. In multiple interviews, Trump has shot the breeze with hosts about the UFC and boxing.
 
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Half of voters plan to cast ballots early, with a huge partisan split​


"Fifty-one percent of voters say they'll vote early, either by mail or in person, with Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump 61%-35% (a 26-point margin) among those [early] voters.

By comparison, Trump leads by 20 points, 57%-37%, with the group of voters who plan to vote on Election Day, which accounts for 45% of the electorate in the poll. It's a smaller lead among a slightly smaller share of the electorate than Harris has over those early voters.

"Either the margin has to close among [those] voting early, or Republican margins on Election Day have to be bigger than this to win," said Bill McInturff, the Republican pollster who conducted the NBC News poll with Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates. ..."
If my math is mathing.....

If those numbers held, the election would not be close.
 
If my math is mathing.....

If those numbers held, the election would not be close.
It would be a roughly 5-6% Kamala victory, which is in line with some polling. I bet that NBC news poll showed Kamala up by 4 or more.

You can solve an algebra problem in thousands of different ways. You can solve 2X = 14 by dividing by 123 or adding y+z to both sides or anything you want. The answer, at the end of the day, is always X=7.
 
How do a majority of people of any age think that the guy who tried to overthrow the legitimately elected government is more patriotic than my left testicle, let alone a woman who has spent her career in public service?
Because to those people, patriotism is actually nationalism and nativism.
 
Because to those people, patriotism is actually nationalism and nativism.
It's a little more than that. All three are part and parcel of being the Elect of God. Predestination is an insidious and pernicious doctrine. Once it's established that there are people chosen in advance, sometimes before birth, to be saved, there's a whole new debate about what the signs are. That Protestants are the strongest believers, ( a bit of a generalization but there's 200+ Christian denominations in the US, not counting cults, sects and independents and 45,000 worldwide so conciseness is impossible) in this doctrine. Guess that's what you get when a German anti Semite monk and a French lawyer are the among the leading spiritual fathers of the Reformation.

This sort of politics is all about them still being elect in their hearts and souls where it really matters. They don't care what he says. It's the hope they give him. He's just a tool.

Well, they're right but not the way they mean it.
 
Tester down 4? Ouch.
The clock is striking midnight for Tester this year. He won his seat in a blue wave; held on narrowly in 12; won again in a blue wave in 18; and I don't think he will hold on this year.

It used to be fairly common for the mountain/plains states to have some Dem senators. Bob Kerrey, Ben Nelson, Max Baucus, Tester, Daschle, Heitkamp, and so on. Now I think Tester is the last of his kind and when he falls, you can ride the Missouri river from start to finish and not meet a single Dem Senator (I think).
 
The clock is striking midnight for Tester this year. He won his seat in a blue wave; held on narrowly in 12; won again in a blue wave in 18; and I don't think he will hold on this year.

It used to be fairly common for the mountain/plains states to have some Dem senators. Bob Kerrey, Ben Nelson, Max Baucus, Tester, Daschle, Heitkamp, and so on. Now I think Tester is the last of his kind and when he falls, you can ride the Missouri river from start to finish and not meet a single Dem Senator (I think).
What if the Illinois senator is on a boat near St. Louis?
 
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