2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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BlueSmoke said:
An incumbent President never loses a reelection with the economy doing this well. Now Harris isn't an incumbent. But I would think in the closing weeks she should be leaning into the economy much more in her messaging. Might help with the very groups she is worried about.
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Only problem is the former President Harris is running against has convinced 1/2 the country that the economy is shit. It doesn't matter what economists say. What matters is the electorate's impression of the economy.
 


"On one hand, I get it. The stakes could not be higher and the race could not be closer. It’s equal parts mystifying and enraging that someone as dumb and dangerous as Donald Trump could win the election. However, to quote a famous meme from this exact moment in the 2008 campaign:

“Everyone needs to chill the fuck out.”

I am not telling anyone to stop “bedwetting.” And I am certainly NOT telling people that Kamala Harris will definitely win. Trump may still win this race. By some measures, Trump is stronger than he was in 2020. But the whiplash between the Democratic elation of a few weeks ago and the full-on panic of the last few days is detached from reality. This has been a remarkably stable race. The vibes changed, but the race hasn't."
 
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"Remember how important it is to the entire Trump narrative and the grievances he intends to register after the results are known for him to be able to say the race was close or that he was ahead. It is part of why there are so many b.s. GOP and GOP-tilted polls out there. This is not the run away that it ought to be. But KH has run a great campaign, has not made a wrong move, has raised much more money, has many more volunteers, Trump and the GOP are a self-destructing mess, the polls have underestimated Dem support ever since Roe, and for all those reasons there is every reason as my friend
@SimonWDC would say to rather be us than them. It is going to take a sprint to the finish for all of us to ensure the turn out that will decide this--particularly among women, younger voters, voters of color and independents/disaffected GOPers. But, my view right now is she wins the popular vote by a healthy margin, wins the electoral vote where she must and picks up one or two surprise states and wins the House. As for the Senate, you've got to give the edge to the GOP right now...but...if everything I've cited above pans out properly there could be Dem surprises there too."
 
Icky Mettle said:
There’s been talk on this thread about “red polls” inflating the polling numbers for Trump in an effort to cast doubt if he loses. It seems that dems have been utilizing a contrasting strategy. It’s not that dems are manipulating poll numbers, but they seem to be highlighting and exploiting unfavorable polling numbers to gain financial contributions. I get about a hundred emails a day from democratic candidates’ campaigns, which take on an ominous and sometimes panicky tone, telling me that they are trailing or tied in the polls, or that their opponent is narrowing the margin, and therefore imploring me (or the email recipient) to donate to the campaign.

It seems that democratic candidates have taken on the strategy of trying to make the people who will likely vote for them feel that they are behind or that they’re losing ground in order to get campaign donations and motivate those people to get out and vote.
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The “sky is falling” fundraising appeals have worked better than optimistic ones for decades.
 
nycfan said:
Yes, that was my point earlier — in such a high turnout election RV seems to be a better approach.
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I didn't see that point earlier. Is this an intuition or is it backed by something?

Turnout in 2020 -- the highest turnout election of our lives -- was 66%. So "high turnout election" is a relative term. As a percentage of RVs, turnout was higher -- 91%. But again, that was a crazy year (I doubt we get there this year), and even so, there was a significant gap. Because parties are doing such extensive registration outreach efforts, one imagines that turnout as a % of RVs will be lower this year.

Meanwhile, according to Pew, only 37% of voters eligible to vote in 2018, 2020 and 2022 did so. So those 37% are doing something different than the other 63% and it's important to capture that in a poll.

By contrast, I don't see what advantages an RV poll would have over an LV. In the past, an LV screen was considerably more involved than a RV one. But today, even our RV polls are subject to all sorts of weighting and self-selection corrections that LV doesn't seem to me to add much complexity or bias.
 
SnoopRob said:
It's not that Dems are prone to panicking, those Dems are almost certainly going to the polls no matter what.

The real basis behind this is that as the Dem tent is large and quite varied, the conventional wisdom is that Dems need higher turnout to win. They need to ensure that the Dem-leaning but unreliable voter feels the need to go to the polls to ensure the Dem wins and to ensure that the progressives at the margins of the party don't fall off to 3rd party votes because they think the Dem doesn't need their vote.

Now, this conventional wisdom concerning higher turnout has been turned on its ear a bit by Trump bringing some Pub-leaning unreliable voters to the polls more consistently than previous Pub nominees. So now it not only matters how high turnout is, but whose unreliable voters turn out. But being behind in the polls is still reasonably effective in attempting to turn our Dem unreliable voters and Dem-leans who could go 3rd party, so Dems still focus on it where they can.
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Trump targets low information, low motivation voters. He gets enough...hopefully not enough to win.
 
lawtig02 said:
I don't know if she can really lean into the economy, but Trump is sure as hell running away from the economy. He's all in on immigration and racism as we head to the line. Their polling must be showing the economy is no longer a great argument for Pubs, even if it's also difficult for Dems.
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Shouldn't Dems point out that
1. Two of Trump's 3 wives are immigrants

2. Trump ran an underage, undocumented Eastern Euro (white) "modeling agency."

4. Melania's father was a REAL registered communist, and a chain migration benefactor.

Just to show the obvious hypocrisy. Trump really is racist, but it's also a TOOL
 
superrific said:
I didn't see that point earlier. Is this an intuition or is it backed by something?

Turnout in 2020 -- the highest turnout election of our lives -- was 66%. So "high turnout election" is a relative term. As a percentage of RVs, turnout was higher -- 91%. But again, that was a crazy year (I doubt we get there this year), and even so, there was a significant gap. Because parties are doing such extensive registration outreach efforts, one imagines that turnout as a % of RVs will be lower this year.

Meanwhile, according to Pew, only 37% of voters eligible to vote in 2018, 2020 and 2022 did so. So those 37% are doing something different than the other 63% and it's important to capture that in a poll.

By contrast, I don't see what advantages an RV poll would have over an LV. In the past, an LV screen was considerably more involved than a RV one. But today, even our RV polls are subject to all sorts of weighting and self-selection corrections that LV doesn't seem to me to add much complexity or bias.
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Mainly b/c for the big national pollsters (and a number of Red Wave pollsters, too), their RV polls ended up being closer to the outcome than LV polls in 2020 and some evidence of that again in 2022. I’m speculating that is because LV models were built for around 50% participation in a presidential election, but those adjustments tend to overstate older and frequent voters once you get to 2/3 or more participation of registered voters.
 
Duke Mu said:
Shouldn't Dems point out that
1. Two of Trump's 3 wives are immigrants

2. Trump ran an underage, undocumented Eastern Euro (white) "modeling agency."

4. Melania's father was a REAL registered communist, and a chain migration benefactor.

Just to show the obvious hypocrisy. Trump really is racist, but it's also a TOOL
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People who are still considering voting for Trump couldn't give a flying fuck about any facts regarding Trump. So no, I don't think there's any reason for that to be part of the Dems' closing pitch.
 
nycfan said:
Mainly b/c for the big national pollsters (and a number of Red Wave pollsters, too), their RV polls ended up being closer to the outcome than LV polls in 2020 and some evidence of that again in 2022. I’m speculating that is because LV models were built for around 50% participation in a presidential election, but those adjustments tend to overstate older and frequent voters once you get to 2/3 or more participation of registered voters.
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One election doesn't a trend make. Of all the things that need to be fixed, the LV screen should be the easiest -- especially if, as you say, the participation rate is a critical variable in the model. It's literally one line of code that needs to be changed. (CONST PARTICIPATION = X).
 
Duke Mu said:
Shouldn't Dems point out that
1. Two of Trump's 3 wives are immigrants

2. Trump ran an underage, undocumented Eastern Euro (white) "modeling agency."

4. Melania's father was a REAL registered communist, and a chain migration benefactor.

Just to show the obvious hypocrisy. Trump really is racist, but it's also a TOOL
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Hypocrisy doesn't function the same way for potential Trump voters that it does for liberals. For liberals, hypocrisy is a sign of bullshit, or insincerity. In MAGA world, hypocrisy is prerogative. It's something to be proud of.
 
nycfan said:
Leaked internal polling memo



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So this internal GOP Senate election polling on the POTUS race in states with close senate races + the current lead in the Senate race

State … Trump v Harris (Senate race margin)
AZ 47-47 (D + 5)
MD 31-62 (D+7)
MI 42-45 (D+8)
MT 57-40 (R+4)
NV 46-46 (D+7)
OH 47-43 (D+6)
PA 48-49 (D+2)
TX 50-45 (R+1)
WI 46-45 (D+1)
 
lawtig02 said:
After reading the memo, that’s a freaking catastrophe for the Pubs if it holds. Still a long way to go, but in this scenario, Kamala is president, Dems control the House, and the Senate is 50/50. Can you imagine what we could do if we get all three?
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In this scenario, are you assuming Fischer loses NE and the other guy caucuses with Dems?

Because otherwise, it's 51-49 GOP. It's easy to forget that we've already lost WV.

And what we can do if we get all three is . . . watch helplessly as Fetterman turns into Manchin 2.0. No, seriously, though, we would need our whole caucus to vote to get rid of the filibuster or the difference between 51 and 55 won't matter. And after 2020, I'm just going to assume that there's going to be at least one fuckup who does the wrong thing for the country because it's the right thing to maximize his political power. Fetterman, LOL.
 
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