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2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden
- Thread starter nycfan
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This is a very strong 8th post. Coming from a man with 1000% more posts than you no less.
BillOfRights
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Polling average 270 to win, RCP, and 538 on Nov 2, 2020:
Biden 51.4%, trump 43.5%, margin 7.9%
Actual results:
Biden 51.3%, trump 46.8%, margin 4.5%
Actual results had 3.3% more trump voters than polled, even though Biden's numbers were basically identical. I can't prove it, but if they were still silent trump voters in 2020, they likely will be again.
Biden was ahead in the polls by 7.9%, won the popular vote by 4.5%, and still only won the tipping state of Wisconsin by 20,000 votes, or 0.63%. Yes, polling has adjusted, and yes, Dobbs happened, but trump is on the ballot in 2024 and he wasn't in 2022. I believe in Keyser Soze, and I believe in the silent trump voter. I'm not trying to be a doom and gloom buzz kill, but if Harris isn't doing better in the polls by election day, I'm not sure I have enough bourbon for election night.
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But yellowjacket assured us that betting markets were better than polls, multiple times. No, he didn't provide any evidence or data to back up his oft-repeated claim and even appeared to take umbrage at being asked to provide the same. Then something was mumbled about people not wanting to hear about something they disagree with and that he'd "played that game before." Now's your chance, yellowjacket...
gtyellowjacket
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A couple of those are really cool studies. One gives a method for using all polls from 200 days before the election that outperforms betting markets. Another looks at other methods like sentiment analysis of social media posts to outperform polls and prediction markets. That's new.
gtyellowjacket
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Read the posted articles and tell us what you think. There is a fair amount of consensus that prediction markets beat election markets but there are a couple of studies that point out some flaws to that collective wisdom.
One study he cited noted that a rolling average of polls, read not the way we do it today, outperforms prediction markets. That's really cool.
Another study really needs to be dumbed down to yellowjacket level because it's talking about how polls and prediction markets influence the Canadian and Mexican stock markets. That seems pretty tangential but it's behind a paywall so I can't read the whole thing. If treb dorks out on that with an explanation, I'll dork out right there with him. I'd love to understand that one.
And another study notes that prediction markets emulate the polls which yeah, that makes a ton of sense. That's probably most of the information these bettors are using to make their predictions.
And note, I am not discounting that really well researched post. There is less consensus than I thought about election markets versus polls and treb expertly pointed that out. It still seems to me that prediction markets are better than polls as we commonly use them but I wouldn't bet on it.
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CallMeTyler
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Posting for the daily updates, for those interested.
www.nbcnews.com
Early Voting and Mail-In Ballots by State 2024 Results
View the results for mail-in and early in-person ballots in your state for the 2024 general elections
www.nbcnews.com
CallMeTyler
Esteemed Member
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The Harris campaign is well-prepared to close this election over the final 2 weeks. From that article, the campaign officials don't seem worried so much as conservatively optimistic given the circumstances.
Her team has the right mentality: Focused, innovative in their engagement and running full sprint through the finish. You can't ask for more.
Rougemont
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I was actually coming here to share this article. Good look into the thinking and operations of the campaign heading into the final stretch.
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A few notes for reference:
Georgia’s population is 51.8% female ( Population Distribution by Sex | KFF )
According to the CNN exit poll, in 2020 women represented 56% of the Georgia electorate — women were 54- 43 for Biden, men 55-45 Trump.
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Gender data in other swing states (I was surprised to discover extent to which states vary — I knew Alaska is an outlier (it is 51.7% male, which is not as extreme as I expected until you compare to the U.S. average of 50.5% female) but it is one of ten states with more men than women, while Southern states are disproportionately represented among states with the highest rate of more women than men, DC being the heaviest female population at 52.8% female)
www.kff.org
Note, however this 2022 Census data is limited to civilian, non-institutionalized residents — all the men in jail are not accounted for (the military folks are supposed to be accounted for as residents of their state of residence at enlistment, but that means that polling of a state like NC with a lot of military bases may underrepresent the male vote if the electorate assumptions are based on census data);
turnout by gender below is based on CNN exit polls in 2020, but will try to find a more accurate source based on final election tallies
GA - 51.8% female (56% female electorate 2020)
NC - 51.7% female (56% female electorate)
PA - 50.8% female (53% female electorate)
MI - 50.6% female (54% female electorate)
AZ - 50.5% female (52% female electorate)
NV - 50.0% female (52% female electorate)
WI - 49.9% female (50% female electorate)
FL - 51.1% female (including them for abortion amendment)
Population Distribution by Sex | KFF
www.kff.org
Note, however this 2022 Census data is limited to civilian, non-institutionalized residents — all the men in jail are not accounted for (the military folks are supposed to be accounted for as residents of their state of residence at enlistment, but that means that polling of a state like NC with a lot of military bases may underrepresent the male vote if the electorate assumptions are based on census data);
turnout by gender below is based on CNN exit polls in 2020, but will try to find a more accurate source based on final election tallies
GA - 51.8% female (56% female electorate 2020)
NC - 51.7% female (56% female electorate)
PA - 50.8% female (53% female electorate)
MI - 50.6% female (54% female electorate)
AZ - 50.5% female (52% female electorate)
NV - 50.0% female (52% female electorate)
WI - 49.9% female (50% female electorate)
FL - 51.1% female (including them for abortion amendment)
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Which gender is more motivated to turnout and vote ? That is the question.
'Not on my watch boys!' CNN host stunned by liberal expert's election advice
CNN anchor Kate Bolduan roared disapproval at a political analyst Tuesday as he offered snarky advice to liberal voters ahead of Election Day.Panelists Van Jones, an appointee of former President Barack Obama, and Scott Jennings, an appointee of former President George W. Bush, were both scolded...
www.rawstory.com
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BTW, voting preferences by party affiliation in 2022 nationwide from Pew Research:
I did not realize the early turnout of Democrats was skewed this heavily by mail-in votes, though on a national basis that could simply be that Blue States out west have had mail-in options longer and so the mail-in numbers are skewed by those blue states where all or large proportions vote by mail.
I did not realize the early turnout of Democrats was skewed this heavily by mail-in votes, though on a national basis that could simply be that Blue States out west have had mail-in options longer and so the mail-in numbers are skewed by those blue states where all or large proportions vote by mail.
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Gift Link --> https://www.wsj.com/politics/electi...4?st=qPUFiz&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
"... Courtney Kennedy of the Pew Research Center has tracked the changes pollsters made in recent years to address accuracy, and she is cautiously hopeful of improvement.
“I wish I could say the polling industry has done these three things to give us all very high confidence that polls won’t systematically underestimate Trump’s support again,” said Kennedy, who supervises survey design and data science at Pew. “But that’s not the case. Pollsters have tried very hard to correct for the error, but there’s no silver bullet.” ..."
... The industry’s analysis of 2020 polling, conducted by a select committee of the American Association for Public Opinion Research, was full of dour news. Pollsters had understated Republican support not only in the presidential race but in elections for Senate and governor. No method of polling—by phone or online—emerged as the most reliable, leaving few clues for improving surveys. Pollsters had fixed problems that skewed some results in 2016, such as talking with too few working-class, white voters, Trump’s most supportive group. But new sources of error had apparently turned up.
In the aggregate, the panel said, polls overstated support for Biden by 3.9 percentage points in the national vote in the final two weeks of the campaign. That was a departure from 2016, when national polls were among the most accurate in 80 years but state-level polls failed to detect signs of Trump’s eventual victory in the Electoral College.
In 2020, the final, pre-election Wall Street Journal poll of the presidential race, conducted at the time with NBC News, found Biden leading Trump by 10 percentage points. The result came close to indicating actual Biden’s level of support—he won 51.25% of the national vote, compared with 52% in the survey—but understated Trump’s ultimate 47% share by about 5 percentage points. ..."
The Pollsters Blew It in 2020. Will They Be Wrong Again in 2024?
Survey firms are trying to learn from their mistakes after the biggest polling error in 40 years
"... Courtney Kennedy of the Pew Research Center has tracked the changes pollsters made in recent years to address accuracy, and she is cautiously hopeful of improvement.
“I wish I could say the polling industry has done these three things to give us all very high confidence that polls won’t systematically underestimate Trump’s support again,” said Kennedy, who supervises survey design and data science at Pew. “But that’s not the case. Pollsters have tried very hard to correct for the error, but there’s no silver bullet.” ..."
... The industry’s analysis of 2020 polling, conducted by a select committee of the American Association for Public Opinion Research, was full of dour news. Pollsters had understated Republican support not only in the presidential race but in elections for Senate and governor. No method of polling—by phone or online—emerged as the most reliable, leaving few clues for improving surveys. Pollsters had fixed problems that skewed some results in 2016, such as talking with too few working-class, white voters, Trump’s most supportive group. But new sources of error had apparently turned up.
In the aggregate, the panel said, polls overstated support for Biden by 3.9 percentage points in the national vote in the final two weeks of the campaign. That was a departure from 2016, when national polls were among the most accurate in 80 years but state-level polls failed to detect signs of Trump’s eventual victory in the Electoral College.
In 2020, the final, pre-election Wall Street Journal poll of the presidential race, conducted at the time with NBC News, found Biden leading Trump by 10 percentage points. The result came close to indicating actual Biden’s level of support—he won 51.25% of the national vote, compared with 52% in the survey—but understated Trump’s ultimate 47% share by about 5 percentage points. ..."
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(cont'd)
"... Tranter [Scott Tranter, data science director at Decision Desk HQ, a political data firm,] says he expects polling error to be about the same magnitude as in the recent past—but he doesn’t know if it will understate support for Trump, or for the Democratic nominee, as polls did in 2012, during then-President Barack Obama’s re-election campaign.
“It’s like a roulette wheel,” Tranter said. “Just because it showed up red the last two times doesn’t mean it’s going to show up red this time.”
Pollsters are still debating whether Trump himself exerts a unique force on voters that pollsters haven’t yet navigated. While state polls were off-base in 2016 and national polls erred in 2020, polling was considered generally accurate in the midterm elections of 2022, when Trump wasn’t on the ballot.
Some in the survey field have thought that Trump supporters are less trustful of civic institutions and so less likely to take surveys, while others might be wary of telling pollsters their true choice of candidate. Kennedy said there are signs in some recent polls that Trump voters in fact aren’t masking their voting intention, at least this year: People registered as Republicans have been as likely as registered Democrats, if not more so, to take some surveys.
“He’s become so normalized,” she said of Trump, “so I’m hoping that the measurement of people’s voting intention has become more accurate.” "
"... Tranter [Scott Tranter, data science director at Decision Desk HQ, a political data firm,] says he expects polling error to be about the same magnitude as in the recent past—but he doesn’t know if it will understate support for Trump, or for the Democratic nominee, as polls did in 2012, during then-President Barack Obama’s re-election campaign.
“It’s like a roulette wheel,” Tranter said. “Just because it showed up red the last two times doesn’t mean it’s going to show up red this time.”
Pollsters are still debating whether Trump himself exerts a unique force on voters that pollsters haven’t yet navigated. While state polls were off-base in 2016 and national polls erred in 2020, polling was considered generally accurate in the midterm elections of 2022, when Trump wasn’t on the ballot.
Some in the survey field have thought that Trump supporters are less trustful of civic institutions and so less likely to take surveys, while others might be wary of telling pollsters their true choice of candidate. Kennedy said there are signs in some recent polls that Trump voters in fact aren’t masking their voting intention, at least this year: People registered as Republicans have been as likely as registered Democrats, if not more so, to take some surveys.
“He’s become so normalized,” she said of Trump, “so I’m hoping that the measurement of people’s voting intention has become more accurate.” "