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2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

  • Thread starter Thread starter nycfan
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Bigs23 said:
What are the major takeaways?
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Strong women turnout as percentage of electorate, disappointing Black turnout in early voting.

GOP turnout exceeded GOP registration as % of electorate. [GOP 29.9%!of registrants but 33.7% of early voters; Ds also over-performed slightly, with 31.3% of registered voters and 32.2% of early voters — the difference comes out of lower turnout among unaffiliated]. Dems had a 6-point edge in early voting turnout in 2020.

Dems lead mail-in ballots but that’s probably only going to be 5% or so of the total votes cast. Key to see what turnout looks like on Tuesday b

NC has 7.8 million registered voters total, and nearly 4.2 million have voted early (will go up incrementally for mail-in votes that arrive tomorrow or Tuesday).

if we are returning to pre-pandemic voting patterns, between 30-33% of the total votes cast will happen on Election Day. If so, NC will have about 6 million total votes cast at the low end of that range, which at 76.9% of registered voters would surpass the 2020 turnout record of 75%, which feels a bit unlikely.

If Election Day turnout is as light as 2020 (only 16% of the total), the total turnout will end up being about 5 million for a much lower overall turnout of about 64.1% — about the same as 2004 and well below range of 68% - 75% turnout since.
 
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nycfan said:
Strong women turnout as percentage of electorate, disappointing Black turnout in early voting.

GOP turnout exceeded GOP registration as % of electorate. [GOP 29.9%!of registrants but 33.7% of early voters; Ds also over-performed slightly, with 31.3% of registered voters and 32.2% of early voters — the difference comes out of lower turnout among unaffiliated]

Dems lead mail-in ballots but that’s probably only going to be 5% or so of the total votes cast. Key to see what turnout looks like on Tuesday b

NC has 7.8 million registered voters total, and nearly 4.2 million have voted early (will go up incrementally for mail-in votes that arrive tomorrow or Tuesday).

if we are returning to pre-pandemic voting patterns, between 30-33% of the total votes cast will happen on Election Day. If so, NC will have about 6 million total votes cast at the low end of that range, which at 76.9% of registered voters would surpass the 2020 turnout record of 72%, which feels a bit unlikely.
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If what Thomas Mills said above is accurate, how is the Black early voting turnout disappointing? It’s 17k more than the turnout from 2020, and that was a year where early turnout was more likely due to the pandemic. I guess I would have to see the numbers from 2016, 2012, and 2008 to get a better understanding.
 
Honestly, the numbers look like a more favorable version of 2020 in NC so far. The gender gap for turnout is about the same and Black voter turnout is lower. I keep hearing the Harris campaign is bullish and Trump campaign is worried, so maybe the issue is not so much the essentially unchanged voter turnout gap by gender but that the actual voting gap of women voters is net larger than it was then b/c so many more women are voting Democratic(?)

Otherwise, I would guess Trump +2-3 absent a surge of blue voters on ED and/or a reversal of GOP dominance on ED now that they are using EV more, so that Dems percentage of the total votes cast improves significantly on ED.

That said, CNN’s most recent poll found Harris with a +6 margin among early voters — if true, the unaffiliated votes must be breaking her way in EV. If that’s true and if GOP early voting diminishes their usual significant lead among Election Day voters by spreading the votes of all parties more evenly across the voting period, then Harris would have a very good shot at picking off NC.
 
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Calheel said:
Well, that might depend whether you are using mean, median or mode. I'm not sure mean is the logical way for Nate to present the electoral college "average". Median probably makes more sense.
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He does it both ways, in effect. % win of simulations conveys information like median. Average EV is mean.
 
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