EXIT POLLS & TURNOUT DATA - The Red Shift

  • Thread starter Thread starter nycfan
  • Start date Start date
  • Replies: 562
  • Views: 9K
  • Politics 
Paine said:
Rosen has pulled ahead in Nevada.

If Bob Casey can pull it out somehow, I’d take a 52/48 Senate compared to how it was looking late Tuesday night.
Click to expand...
A 52/48 senate wouldn’t even be a red wave, especially with a virtually even House. Crazy the amount of people that would vote for Trump but not the sycophants below him
 
uncjhodges said:
A 52/48 senate wouldn’t even be a red wave, especially with a virtually even House. Crazy the amount of people that would vote for Trump but not the sycophants below him
Click to expand...
It was just by the amount states shifted red for president.

They shifted because hispanics shifted AND low-turnout democrats did not vote.
 
uncjhodges said:
A 52/48 senate wouldn’t even be a red wave, especially with a virtually even House. Crazy the amount of people that would vote for Trump but not the sycophants below him
Click to expand...
If there’s one constant in the MAGA era, it’s that his voters do not turn out when he’s not on the ballot. Hopefully we can pick up some Senate seats in 2026. The post-Trump Republican Party will be weaker, IMO. A lot to get through before that though…

The Senate map in 2026 isn’t great for Dems, but it isn’t nearly as bad as 2024. Pickup opportunities in NC, ME. Possibly TX, IA, and KS.

Have to defend Ossoff though.
 
Paine said:
If there’s one constant in the MAGA era, it’s that his voters do not turn out when he’s not on the ballot. Hopefully we can pick up some Senate seats in 2026. The post-Trump Republican Party will be weaker, IMO. A lot to get through before that though…

The Senate map in 2026 isn’t great for Dems, but it isn’t nearly as bad as 2024. Pickup opportunities in NC, ME. Possibly TX, IA, and KS.

Have to defend Ossoff though.
Click to expand...
It could be a very favorable dem election cycle if we fix our shit.

It's time to win senate races in red states.

And yeah one thing Trump and Obama have in common is that their popularity really, really sucks and transferring to others in the party.
 
Exit polls show that Republicans got younger and more diverse. They are growing really substantially with Hispanics, the largest streaking demographic.

The Democrats need to course correct very quickly for 2028. The Democrats need to get more competitive in the South as the 2030 adjustment is going to give more electoral votes to Republican leaning states.

Florida +3
NC +1
Georgia + 1
Tennessee +1
Texas +4
Arizona +1
Utah +1
Idaho + 1
All the losses come from liberal leaning states
Republican leaning states will get 12 more EC votes so democrats must act now.

Keys:
1. Get back to talking about how to elevate lower class individuals. Quit talking about the uneducated as if it’s a plague. The country was founded on workers and trade people.
2. Quit focusing on taxing corporations. Do it potentially but quit talking about it so much.
3. Push back on the extremes of the party whether it’s transgender extremism, the stupid sports thing, coddling college students who support terrorists, etc.
4. Get a damn message and stick to it. Quit getting distracted by the shithole people at Fox.
5. Cut the celebrities out. No one gives a damn who Beyoncé or Taylor Swift is voting for.
 
uncjhodges said:
A 52/48 senate wouldn’t even be a red wave, especially with a virtually even House. Crazy the amount of people that would vote for Trump but not the sycophants below him
Click to expand...
A 52/48 split is enough of a majority that there will be expectations too pass whatever Trump wants, but small enough that it will occasionally put someone in a tight spot.
 
BlooVooDoo said:
A 52/48 split is enough of a majority that there will be expectations too pass whatever Trump wants, but small enough that it will occasionally put someone in a tight spot.
Click to expand...
Bill Cassidy, Lisa Murkowski, and Susan Collins may prevent some of the worst of the worst nominees at the very least. I hope. Have no faith in that though.
 
HintonJamesHeel said:
Exit polls show that Republicans got younger and more diverse. They are growing really substantially with Hispanics, the largest streaking demographic.

The Democrats need to course correct very quickly for 2028. The Democrats need to get more competitive in the South as the 2030 adjustment is going to give more electoral votes to Republican leaning states.

Florida +3
NC +1
Georgia + 1
Tennessee +1
Texas +4
Arizona +1
Utah +1
Idaho + 1
All the losses come from liberal leaning states
Republican leaning states will get 12 more EC votes so democrats must act now.

Keys:
1. Get back to talking about how to elevate lower class individuals. Quit talking about the uneducated as if it’s a plague. The country was founded on workers and trade people.
2. Quit focusing on taxing corporations. Do it potentially but quit talking about it so much.
3. Push back on the extremes of the party whether it’s transgender extremism, the stupid sports thing, coddling college students who support terrorists, etc.
4. Get a damn message and stick to it. Quit getting distracted by the shithole people at Fox.
5. Cut the celebrities out. No one gives a damn who Beyoncé or Taylor Swift is voting for.
Click to expand...
I don't get the celebrity part. Hulk Hogan and a bunch of others don't either. You could claim Elon Musk is a celebrity at this point.
 
HintonJamesHeel said:
Exit polls show that Republicans got younger and more diverse. They are growing really substantially with Hispanics, the largest streaking demographic.

The Democrats need to course correct very quickly for 2028. The Democrats need to get more competitive in the South as the 2030 adjustment is going to give more electoral votes to Republican leaning states.

Florida +3
NC +1
Georgia + 1
Tennessee +1
Texas +4
Arizona +1
Utah +1
Idaho + 1
All the losses come from liberal leaning states
Republican leaning states will get 12 more EC votes so democrats must act now.

Keys:
1. Get back to talking about how to elevate lower class individuals. Quit talking about the uneducated as if it’s a plague. The country was founded on workers and trade people.
2. Quit focusing on taxing corporations. Do it potentially but quit talking about it so much.
3. Push back on the extremes of the party whether it’s transgender extremism, the stupid sports thing, coddling college students who support terrorists, etc.
4. Get a damn message and stick to it. Quit getting distracted by the shithole people at Fox.
5. Cut the celebrities out. No one gives a damn who Beyoncé or Taylor Swift is voting for.
Click to expand...
Your 5 keys are 10000% accurate. If I have to see one more celebrity talk about something I'm going to lose it. Talk to normal people. Normal people's needs.
 
This is a chance for Democrats to become the party of individual freedom. "The government should leave you alone to be who you want to be" - where the GOP wants the government to control who you can be. There is a massive opportunity to go small government in civil liberties WITH government support for social programs. That's the path forward IMO
 
aGDevil2k said:
This is a chance for Democrats to become the party of individual freedom. "The government should leave you alone to be who you want to be" - where the GOP wants the government to control who you can be. There is a massive opportunity to go small government in civil liberties WITH government support for social programs. That's the path forward IMO
Click to expand...
That's been happening since JFK. Started slow but has grown greatly. It's the social conservatives who think they have the right to interfere in personal beliefs. That's everything from abortion to drinking laws to gambling and really any of the so called victimless crimes. WTF are those, anyway?
 
aGDevil2k said:
This is a chance for Democrats to become the party of individual freedom. "The government should leave you alone to be who you want to be" - where the GOP wants the government to control who you can be. There is a massive opportunity to go small government in civil liberties WITH government support for social programs. That's the path forward IMO
Click to expand...
Aaaand individual liberal/progressive ideas did well in red states when put directly on the ballot. Minimum wage, individual rights overall, worker rights. Need to message to all people, and not segments of the population. Dems have been splitting us up into segments to message to for far too long.
 
A Latino political commentator on CNN yesterday said (paraphrasing) that many Latino men are proud capitalists - they want to make money and look up to those that have made money. This attracts them to Trump and puts them at odds with some of the Democratic messaging.
 
If Dem leaders don't start listening to these Latino voices and start following their words, we're in trouble. A change is needed. The population and electorate is changing.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top