EXIT POLLS & TURNOUT DATA - The Red Shift

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superrific said:
The polls were wrong.

There is no change possible. Trump has promised everything. You can't compete with that. You just have to wait until it all falls apart and then try to pick up the pieces, if we're ever allowed.
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Hopefully the Mid Terms will be a big plus
 
aGDevil2k said:
Polls weren't really that wrong it seems.

Nate silver (ugh) was right that the swings would largely go all together.

But honestly what is the Democrat party now? It's gotta change.
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I think that's the thing. People naturally cling to the polls they like and reject the polls they don't. But in general the polls did a pretty decent job. Not as good as the betting markets but still pretty good.
 
DantesHair said:
There’s also the idea that a bunch of Biden supporters just sat out the election. I wonder how many “likely voters” told pollsters that they would vote and then didn’t feel the need.
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Not even an idea - Trump is getting fairly the same # of votes as last time. Harris dropped off massively from Biden. People stayed home.
 
mpaer said:
Hopefully the Mid Terms will be a big plus
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My optimism is shot. There are more red stars than blue states and I don’t see democratic US Senate candidates succeeding in red states. That of course has a huge impact on federal judicial appointments. And gerrymandering is an issue in the House.
 
Icky Mettle said:
My optimism is shot. There are more red stars than blue states and I don’t see democratic US Senate candidates succeeding in red states. That of course has a huge impact on federal judicial appointments. And gerrymandering is an issue in the House.
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Reason for optimism regarding the midterms: low propensity voters don’t vote in midterms. Dems can have a good 2026, especially in the House, if they have the right message.
 
Paine said:
Reason for optimism regarding the midterms: low propensity voters don’t vote in midterms. Dems can have a good 2026, especially in the House, if they have the right message.
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And Dems could have a GREAT 2026 and not move the needle at all in the House because of Gerrymandering which the Federal Government is fully on board with. If you think for one second that Republicans plan to cede power in any way, you haven't paid attention to NC over the last decade. Even with a Dem governor, Republicans have ALL the power in this state. They used the first opportunity that they had power to cement it and now it can quite literally never be undone. There isn't enough voting power to overcome the districting.
 
wmheel1287 said:
And Dems could have a GREAT 2026 and not move the needle at all in the House because of Gerrymandering which the Federal Government is fully on board with. If you think for one second that Republicans plan to cede power in any way, you haven't paid attention to NC over the last decade. Even with a Dem governor, Republicans have ALL the power in this state. They used the first opportunity that they had power to cement it and now it can quite literally never be undone. There isn't enough voting power to overcome the districting.
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The gerrymandering in this cycle didn’t help the Dems with the House, that’s for sure. California and New York need to start playing hard ball with their districts. Texas and Florida don’t have nonpartisan commissions. As long as gerrymandering is legal on a partisan basis, Democrats need to use it in the states they control.
 
lightbluenc said:
The very folks that said Dems need to find any other candidate, other than Biden, to run. They all stayed home because they didn't like the candidate.
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I can hardly wait to see how they like the candidate they got now. Fools at the end of the day.
 
lightbluenc said:
Two years to find a new voice of the party, which I think really needs to do some soul searching on what we want to be. Can't keep doing the same thing.
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The Obama era is gone. Love him...best president ever. But it's a new time. We need YOUNG bootstrap minds.
 
wmheel1287 said:
And Dems could have a GREAT 2026 and not move the needle at all in the House because of Gerrymandering which the Federal Government is fully on board with. If you think for one second that Republicans plan to cede power in any way, you haven't paid attention to NC over the last decade. Even with a Dem governor, Republicans have ALL the power in this state. They used the first opportunity that they had power to cement it and now it can quite literally never be undone. There isn't enough voting power to overcome the districting.
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Eh - look this was a massive red wave election. And even in that, the house, assuming it goes red, will be soooo slightly red. Democrats can and should win the house in 2 years
 
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