EXIT POLLS & TURNOUT DATA - The Red Shift

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Paine said:
Obviously a joke based on everything I’ve said about why I think Democrats lost the election.

Democracies across the world had their incumbent party either lose power or lose seats. I think it’s obvious that such a global phenomenon can only be caused by other global factors: the decline of neoliberalism and the American world order + inflation pressure post Covid.

I linked to Sheinbaum’s Wikipedia page because Morena was one of the few ruling parties that did not lose power. They didn’t stay in power by catering to the right wingers in Mexico. They stayed in power because they passed robust social safety legislation under AMLO and Sheinbaum has was trusted by Mexicans to continue this economic process.
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If he was planning to run all along (or even if he just wanted to improve Americans lives), Biden should’ve gone progressive and passed some social programs that could easily be pointed to. Medicare for all would’ve been a great start. I would imagine that most Americans can’t point to his obvious wins (infrastructure) but can point to all kinds of perceived failings.
 
DantesHair said:
If he was planning to run all along (or even if he just wanted to improve Americans lives), Biden should’ve gone progressive and passed some social programs that could easily be pointed to. Medicare for all would’ve been a great start. I would imagine that most Americans can’t point to his obvious wins (infrastructure) but can point to all kinds of perceived failings.
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It might be a novel concept but there's a pretty good case to be made that the infrastructure and economy was more immediately important than anything else in his mind, including pandering for reelection. Look how much the opposition hurt over the immigration bill.
 
Paine said:
We wouldn’t have been able to pass Medicare for All with the Congressional makeup we had in 2021. Manchin and Sinema couldn’t even bring themselves to vote for a continued reduction in child poverty via the child tax credit.

Too often, it felt like Harris was averse to actually running on the populist progressive things Biden did. See: unions, antitrust, etc.

Biden ran on these things in 2020 and was rewarded by voters for it. Harris could’ve pointed towards Biden’s antimonopoly policies as something she wanted to build on. She never talked about it. Wonder why? Almost like her campaign and the party itself is too interested in what corporate consultants and lobbyists have to say instead of what average Americans have to say.

Hell, Harris could’ve ran on Medicare for All with this exact message. Give me a congressional majority and we will pass Medicare for All. This is how Dems won the Senate in 2020. They said give us the majority and you will get another round of stimulus checks. It worked! And we abandoned it.
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Biden also implemented the most progressive, forward-thinking policy this country has seen since the 1950's, and yet, the country didn't reward him or his heir apparent with an opportunity to continue those policies.

Frankly, it appears the middle class will not actually vote for policies that improve their livelihoods or are too disinterested to even submit a ballot.

From a political strategist POV, why would Democrats ever go for progressive policies again when the electorate said 'no thank you'? That's a serious question and one even hypothesized by Heather Cox Richardson (and frankly, I think she's probably right).
 
CallMeTyler said:
From a political strategist POV, why would Democrats ever go for progressive policies again when the electorate said 'no thank you'? That's a serious question and one even hypothesized by Heather Cox Richardson (and frankly, I think she's probably right).
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Welll........shit
 
Paine said:
. There’s no way in hell the average voter was aware of Biden’s progressive policies and chose specifically to reject them.
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Hard to fight the knowledge level of most voters I don't pretend to be "better" than those folks But it is frustrating
Its like getting on the Interstate but half the drivers have never driven a car
 
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Paine said:
The progressive policies that Biden implemented weren’t ones that were easy to message or run on, frankly. Especially when Biden himself was a God awful communicator and his administration spent years telling people that the economy was good instead of telling people about Biden’s accomplishments re: antitrust, manufacturing or whatever.

And again. Harris did not run on the progressive policies that Biden passed or implemented via federal agencies. She ran away from it.

Biden’s progressive policies were a bandaid over a festering wound. The policies alone don’t fix all the other aspects I and others have talked about in the wake of the election. That is, running candidates with working class authenticity and simple, easily digestible pro-worker message. The Harris campaign’s messaging was muddier than the Mississippi.

I listened to that interview with Stewart and Cox-Richardson. Needless to say, I did not come away convinced by Cox-Richardson’s argument and got the sense that Stewart didn’t either. There’s no way in hell the average voter was aware of Biden’s progressive policies and chose specifically to reject them. So why would the message be to not run on these policies?
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The problem is that you just end up with two sides shouting bullshit at each other. That's why I have such a disdain for the media. Publicizing the facts for the information of the public is the role the news claimed was theirs. All of this information was there. All of it was brought up. They promptly abrogated their role. The news went on vacation and let the editors and commentators tell the story. Everybody but the powerful lost. They got what they paid for.
 
Paine said:
The progressive policies that Biden implemented weren’t ones that were easy to message or run on, frankly. Especially when Biden himself was a God awful communicator and his administration spent years telling people that the economy was good instead of telling people about Biden’s accomplishments re: antitrust, manufacturing or whatever.

And again. Harris did not run on the progressive policies that Biden passed or implemented via federal agencies. She ran away from it.

Biden’s progressive policies were a bandaid over a festering wound. The policies alone don’t fix all the other aspects I and others have talked about in the wake of the election. That is, running candidates with working class authenticity and simple, easily digestible pro-worker message. The Harris campaign’s messaging was muddier than the Mississippi.

I listened to that interview with Stewart and Cox-Richardson. Needless to say, I did not come away convinced by Cox-Richardson’s argument and got the sense that Stewart didn’t either. There’s no way in hell the average voter was aware of Biden’s progressive policies and chose specifically to reject them. So why would the message be to not run on these policies?
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"And again. Harris did not run on the progressive policies that Biden passed or implemented via federal agencies. She ran away from it."

This just isn't true.

The key arguments we always here from middle-class America:
"I can't have children because it's too expensive"
"I can't afford a house"
"I need my student loans forgiven"
"I need higher wages"

And yet, we have both Biden and Harris addressing every single key issue listed above directly in their platform and via current policy:
  • Restored child tax credits and new tax cuts to help families cover child expenses
  • cutting taxes for millions of middle America by expanded earned income tax credits
  • first ever tax incentive for building affordable homes for first-time buyers
  • $40B in housing expansion
  • $175B in forgiven student loans
  • Raising the minimum wage
Plenty of people outright rejected these ideas. All would've substantially improved the lives of progressive voters and they're entirely simple, easily-digestible and pro-worker.
 
Paine said:
I think we have a very different idea of the kinds of policy Democrats should be running on. Simply put, running on more tax breaks and tax incentives is not good enough. Harris rarely mentioned raising the minimum wage and when she did never said how much she would raise it to.
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I also forgot to mention the $25,000 down payment for first-time buyers. 2/3rds of renters identify the down payment as the key barrier to buying a home.

If her policies addressed the primary complaints from voters, and you're suggesting the ideas weren't good enough, what's your recommendation?
 
Paine said:
I’ve laid out my recommendations numerous times over the last week until I’ve been blue in the face. Just go back and read any post I’ve made since Tuesday. I’ve been posting more than anyone not named superrific.

There is a key difference between running on technocratic solutions and running on universal improvements for the everyday lives of working people.

$25,000 down payment assistance isn’t helping people who rent. It isn’t helping people who aren’t close to buying a home. It isn’t even addressing the root issue in the housing crisis, which is supply.
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"$25,000 down payment assistance isn’t helping people who rent. It isn’t helping people who aren’t close to buying a home. It isn’t even addressing the root issue in the housing crisis, which is supply."

$25k is absolutely going to help someone buy a home. That's ridiculous to suggest otherwise.

Her plan specifically incentivized builders to build more affordable housing, disrupt the corporate landlord structure by preventing wall street investors from buying up homes, and addressing price fixing through market manipulation. Those policies address supply side issues.

What else would you suggest wrt housing?
 
Paine said:
Will $25,000 down payment assistance help the person who is renting and unable to buy a home at all? It’s a fine policy, but it’s not one to center a populist presidential campaign on. That’s my point.

I don’t care about the things that are buried in this document that no one read and neither do low info voters. They hear she says in interviews and rallies.

If y’all really think that voters don’t care about progressive policy then what’s your solution? That we just become Republicans? It’s not a strategy, and that’s my biggest frustration point with this.
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Man, I've got no beef with you. We're fighting the same fight here.

All I'm saying is that she attempted to cover these topics publicly and nobody outside rally participants or who tuned into specific channels were able to hear her policy proposals. I think the disconnect between what you're saying she did or didn't do is a testament to the challenges facing a progressive administration.

Hell, go watch a single clip of KH discussing her proposal and read the comments. People will literally deny reality even when she's telling them exactly what they want to hear.
 
Paine said:
I’ve laid out my recommendations numerous times over the last week until I’ve been blue in the face. Just go back and read any post I’ve made since Tuesday. I’ve been posting more than anyone not named superrific.

There is a key difference between running on technocratic solutions and running on universal improvements for the everyday lives of working people.

$25,000 down payment assistance isn’t helping people who rent. It isn’t helping people who aren’t close to buying a home. It isn’t even addressing the root issue in the housing crisis, which is supply.
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And throwing the people out of the country who build homes isn't going to fix the supply issue.

Good luck finding white folks and black folks to work outdoors for $7.25 an hour to build homes.
 
Tp parapharse Bernie on Meet the Press
American are suffering-Groceries, Health Care, Elder Care, Child Care, college expense
Trump gave them an answer We will deport millions of leaches-and then we all have money for us.. a big lie-but-lets try it
And of course Bernie started with the premise that the Billionaire class is going gangbusters-at the expense of the working class. And I guess you can extrapolate Bernies response would be a WAAAYY bigger set of changes than Harriss suggested
But no America is not ready for that
 
Paine said:
I know we’re on the same side, and that’s why it’s frustrating. I honestly find it hard to express the full breadth of my opinions in a written format, so I’m sorry if doing a bad job of getting across what I’m trying to say.

I know what she said in interviews, I know what she said at rallies. I watched them nonstop since she entered the race because I work in politics, have a degree in political science, and I’m fucking neurotic.

Yes, she ran on home buyers assistance. Yes, she ran on middle-class tax breaks. Yes, she ran on expanding Medicare (though she didn’t talk about this until later in the campaign).

I’m not saying that it was all one thing or all another. Did racism contribute? Yes. Did sexism contribute? Yes. Did misinfo contribute? Yes.

I’m simply of the belief that there is a large enough number of people that were willing to vote for Democrats who either stayed home or voted for Trump.

Part of this was a Joe Biden issue, part of this is a Democratic Party messaging issue. Like it or not, Biden was unpopular and Harris did not seize on the opportunity to separate herself from him. I don’t think Harris was the best messenger for these issues for the reasons a ton of people here have laid out.

You can have a specific policy point in your platform or policy book, but the average voter will not hear about this without consistent messaging from many fronts. The messaging of Harris’ campaign was disjointed and muddy. She seemed to be trying to defend a system that has failed so many while also trying to cast herself as generational change without specifying what that substantive change would be.
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It's all good. We're brothers (or sisters) in arms. This is the beginning of the resistance. Naturally everyone is going to be on edge or have a bone to pick because we're all pissed off. I've been waffling between watching the world burn vs helping my community when the struggle kicks in.

It's been a rollercoaster for both of us.

I hope the Democrats can build on this chaos that Trump builds. The mid-terms are a huge opportunity.
 
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