EXIT POLLS & TURNOUT DATA - The Red Shift

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With all due respect, your reading between the lines of David Plouffe last night was suspect. You are letting anxiety color your thoughts. Which we all do. I just don't think you have much basis for this pessimism.
With all due respect, like all other good faith posters, I share my POV based on personal experience and too closely following these things. I 100% accept that I may be wrong, it just reflects my own read on what I’m reading or hearing. In fact I hope I am wrong.
 
Trump is losing some Republican voters. I understand why folks have the fascination with the parties as it’s the best, most likely indicator but I think he is such a polarizing figure, it’s not that useful today.
 
With all due respect, like all other good faith posters, I share my POV based on personal experience and too closely following these things. I 100% accept that I may be wrong, it just reflects my own read on what I’m reading or hearing. In fact I hope I am wrong.
I get it. I'm not criticizing you. Just making an observation that might be constructive.

I should add, though, that your status on the board maybe gives you a special responsibility. You're widely seen as the news aggregator, the person most informed about the most current of events. So if you're going to offer your POV based on personal experience, you might notate that with "My take:" so people don't panic thinking that you're seeing something concrete somewhere.
 
WHEN harris wins, nycfan, please take a good 24 hour break (that's all you get) for all the work you have done


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BTW if turnout really is breaking records, which is what seems to be happening in NC, GA, PA.... that has to be good for Harris. Because I just dont think Trump is getting NEW voters that never voted for him before. Not at least the majority of new voters.
 
WHEN harris wins, nycfan, please take a good 24 hour break (that's all you get) for all the work you have done


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BTW if turnout really is breaking records, which is what seems to be happening in NC, GA, PA.... that has to be good for Harris. Because I just dont think Trump is getting NEW voters that never voted for him before. Not at least the majority of new voters.

I'm not sure about that. I do think he has probably brought in some young men who previously did not vote.
 
From Politico:

“‘Mark Pocan and I have moved from nauseously optimistic to cautiously optimistic,’ Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.) said just after 3 p.m.

Dingell and Pocan, the Wisconsin Democrat, respectively represent the liberal college towns of Ann Arbor, Michigan, and Madison, Wisconsin.”

Is this moving in the right direction?
 
From Politico:

“‘Mark Pocan and I have moved from nauseously optimistic to cautiously optimistic,’ Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.) said just after 3 p.m.

Dingell and Pocan, the Wisconsin Democrat, respectively represent the liberal college towns of Ann Arbor, Michigan, and Madison, Wisconsin.”
WTF does "nauseously optimistic mean"? Is it less optimistic than cautiously, or more?
 
I'm not sure about that. I do think he has probably brought in some young men who previously did not vote.
The only way Trump wins is if he convinces low propensity voters to vote (e.g., young males). So I agree higher turnout isn’t necessarily good news (it’s not necessarily bad news, either).
 
I get it. I'm not criticizing you. Just making an observation that might be constructive.

I should add, though, that your status on the board maybe gives you a special responsibility. You're widely seen as the news aggregator, the person most informed about the most current of events. So if you're going to offer your POV based on personal experience, you might notate that with "My take:" so people don't panic thinking that you're seeing something concrete somewhere.
I appreciate what nycfan does and has done for this board.

I certainly don’t regard her as “the person most informed about the most current of events” on this board. I don’t regard any single person as the “most informed.”

I don’t regard her as “the news aggregator.”

She links a lot of things - many links that I’ve learned to ignore (I don’t need to watch daily links of Trump rambling).

She should be free to post as she sees fit.
 
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BTW if turnout really is breaking records, which is what seems to be happening in NC, GA, PA.... that has to be good for Harris. Because I just dont think Trump is getting NEW voters that never voted for him before. Not at least the majority of new voters.
It's not necessarily good for Harris. In fact, it might not be good for her at all.

It used to be that high turnout elections favored Dems. That was before Trumpian populism. Now, Dems are the party of the most engaged voters, and Trump consistently polls better with less engaged voters. Now, it's entirely possible that there are multiple turning points. That is, 90%+ voters are more Dem, 70-80% voters more Pub, and 35-50% voters again more likely Dem. Just making those numbers up.

But if our main advantage was supposed to be GOTV, then high turnout everywhere is a double edged sword.

Wildcard: the lowest propensity voters are Hispanic. If Hispanic turnout is very high, in the wake of MSG fiasco, that is likely good for us.
 
How can you more than double your money if Harris is +130?
If you bet $100 on Harris to win, and she wins, you will receive $230 back (and profit $130).

If the betting markets had it as a 50/50 race it'd be more like betting $100 to win $200 (profit $100) - I'm ignoring the house taking their cut here for simplicity. But since she's a slight underdog, she gets a better payout if she wins than she would get in a 50/50 race.
 
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