EXIT POLLS & TURNOUT DATA - The Red Shift

[Healing]

That is a fucking outstanding cross-tab if true.

If you had told me yesterday that, on issues, democracy + abortion = economy + immigration + 7, I'd have been thrilled.

Sure about that? 47+% of the nation has been convinced this is a shit economy.

 

[rodoheel]

Nobody voting for Trump has democracy as their #1 issue. Or at least hardly anyone. And there will be plenty of people voting for Kamala based on the economy.

In my amateur but informed view, this is "Kamala wins easily" territory. If true. Exit polls aren't great at predictions.

I dunno. It wouldn't surprise me for 15% of the "Democracy" people to be Trump supporters. Musk et al are really pushing that Harris will kill free speech, make us a one-party state, etc. Complete hogwash, but they're messaging it hard.

Don't get me wrong - I'd still generally agree that it's good cross tabs. But I'd rather see some of that democracy percentage in abortion, which I think is almost guaranteed to be Kamala voters. That's all.

 

[rodoheel]

Sure about that? 47+% of the nation has been convinced this is a shit economy.

He's assuming the "economy" voters are mostly or all Trump voters (which is probably the correct assumption)

 

[LosPollosHermanos]

Nobody voting for Trump has democracy as their #1 issue. Or at least hardly anyone. And there will be plenty of people voting for Kamala based on the economy.

In my amateur but informed view, this is "Kamala wins easily" territory. If true. Exit polls aren't great at predictions.

This is hard to say because in their deranged minds a lot of Trumpers think they are saving us from socialism or Marxism. So if you ask them if they care about democracy, they are going to say yes at a rate similar to those who are actually concerned about democracy for the right reasons.

 

[HeelYeah2012]

This is hard to say because in their deranged minds a lot of Trumpers think they are saving us from socialism or Marxism. So if you ask them if they care about democracy, they are going to say yes at a rate similar to those who are actually concerned about democracy for the right reasons.

Exactly. Almost nobody is against “democracy” - they just think the other side is the side that is a threat to democracy.

 

[UNCMSinLS]

Exit poll in swing states, top issue

State of democracy 35
Economy 31
Abortion 14
Immigration 11
Foreign policy 4

Be careful here - pubs talk all the time about "saving democracy" by crushing communist democrats and other vermin.

I still think abortion is higher, possibly because women are still uncomfortable talking about the issue in public and with pollsters. Also, the issue sort of bleeds over into the "State of democracy" issue. Additionally, abortion probably gets low single-digit support from men.

 

[EyeballKid]

This is hard to say because in their deranged minds a lot of Trumpers think they are saving us from socialism or Marxism. So if you ask them if they care about democracy, they are going to say yes at a rate similar to those who are actually concerned about democracy for the right reasons.

But I’d bet that few Trump supporters would say that “democracy” is their top priority. It might be 2nd or 3rd on the list, behind the economy—which is supposedly the #1 issue that Trump’s team has been hammering, and is supposedly why most Trump supporters support him.

Let’s not forget, right-wing media has been saying for years that we don’t actually have a “democracy”—we have a “constitutional republic.” So MAGA folks aren’t particularly drawn to—and protective of—the word and concept of “democracy” in the same way that Dems are.

 

[nycfan]

 

[nycfan]

 

[nycfan]

This looks like a very good data point:

 

[nycfan]

 

[zeuxis]

But why?

There's really no reason men would vote more on EDay than Women. I get stats...but why was it statistically spread out in the first place? It's not a D vs R thing

Because men lock their women in the kitchen, amirite?

 

[nycfan]

 

[nycfan]

 

[nycfan]

 

[Zoo_View]

If women are outvoting men by 13% in PA and 11% in NC then there is no fuggin way a higher voter turnout is not good.

Southern Baptist and Prosperity Gospel types turning out?

 

[rodoheel]

Don't like that Hispanic number at all

 

[Zoo_View]

“He’s too extreme. We need that.” 5%? 3%? 10%?

 

[rodoheel]

Don't like PA electorate being more white...

 

[nycfan]

Sorry, tons of data from multiple different exit polls coming at you