EXIT POLLS & TURNOUT DATA - The Red Shift

[nycfan]

 

[TitanNC]

I saw on a CNN segment that Trump carried 21% of AA men in N.C.

 

[CallMeTyler]

And Democrats will be wondering how they can launch Michelle Obama for POTUS in 4 years ...

 

[lightbluenc]

So - WTF happened in Iowa? How was Selzer so far off?

People lie about who they're voting for. Tons of R's just keep it a secret or tell you what you want to hear. They are insanely good at this.

 

[finesse]

People lie about who they're voting for. Tons of R's just keep it a secret or tell you what you want to hear. They are insanely good at this.

I couldn't have been more completely wrong about how the secret vote would go.

 

[Willy]

People lie about who they're voting for. Tons of R's just keep it a secret or tell you what you want to hear. They are insanely good at this.

If that's the case - and it very well could be - then polls are completely useless. Polls only work if those polled are honest.

 

[finesse]

Looks like lying is becoming the new American way.

 

[aGDevil2k]

Polls weren't really that wrong it seems.

Nate silver (ugh) was right that the swings would largely go all together.

But honestly what is the Democrat party now? It's gotta change.

 

[lightbluenc]

Polls weren't really that wrong it seems.

Nate silver (ugh) was right that the swings would largely go all together.

But honestly what is the Democrat party now? It's gotta change.

I don't think we'll see a woman come out of the Dem primary anytime soon unfortunately.

 

[Willy]

Polls weren't really that wrong it seems.

Nate silver (ugh) was right that the swings would largely go all together.

But honestly what is the Democrat party now? It's gotta change.

I guess most were within the MOE. Iowa was not, which I feel is what really kickstarted the Hopium here.

 

[superrific]

Polls weren't really that wrong it seems.

Nate silver (ugh) was right that the swings would largely go all together.

But honestly what is the Democrat party now? It's gotta change.

The polls were wrong.

There is no change possible. Trump has promised everything. You can't compete with that. You just have to wait until it all falls apart and then try to pick up the pieces, if we're ever allowed.

 

[mpaer]

The polls were wrong.

There is no change possible. Trump has promised everything. You can't compete with that. You just have to wait until it all falls apart and then try to pick up the pieces, if we're ever allowed.

Hopefully the Mid Terms will be a big plus

 

[DantesHair]

Hopefully the Mid Terms will be a big plus

Hopefully the Mid Terms will be a big plus

There’s also the idea that a bunch of Biden supporters just sat out the election. I wonder how many “likely voters” told pollsters that they would vote and then didn’t feel the need.

 

[gtyellowjacket]

Polls weren't really that wrong it seems.

Nate silver (ugh) was right that the swings would largely go all together.

But honestly what is the Democrat party now? It's gotta change.

I think that's the thing. People naturally cling to the polls they like and reject the polls they don't. But in general the polls did a pretty decent job. Not as good as the betting markets but still pretty good.

 

[aGDevil2k]

There’s also the idea that a bunch of Biden supporters just sat out the election. I wonder how many “likely voters” told pollsters that they would vote and then didn’t feel the need.

Not even an idea - Trump is getting fairly the same # of votes as last time. Harris dropped off massively from Biden. People stayed home.

 

[mpaer]

Not even an idea - Trump is getting fairly the same # of votes as last time. Harris dropped off massively from Biden. People stayed home.

Well the hell with them

 

[lightbluenc]

The very folks that said Dems need to find any other candidate, other than Biden, to run. They all stayed home because they didn't like the candidate.

 

[Icky Mettle]

Hopefully the Mid Terms will be a big plus

My optimism is shot. There are more red stars than blue states and I don’t see democratic US Senate candidates succeeding in red states. That of course has a huge impact on federal judicial appointments. And gerrymandering is an issue in the House.

 

[nycfan]

 

[nycfan]