This is pretty much how the race would have gone in 2020 but for COVID. A lot of people who voted against Trump for that single reason were very disappointed in Biden’s handling of the pandemic — he couldn’t just make it go away and people were frustrated when the fight over masks and public events and schools extended well beyond the availability of the vaccine.
When we when to the Sweet Sixteen in Philadelphia in 2022, I was stunned that the City was just tentatively emerging from COVID restrictions. People seemed freaked to mingle in restaurants, many of which were operating at half capacity with about a quarter of staffing. You want an explanation for the red shift in Blue States? That’s it.
We’ve memory-holed the pandemic but I’ve thought the last few years that the frustration and outrage about inflation has always been about more than the economic impact. A lot of people most outraged about it actually did better financially the last four years.
But in my opinion the inflation thing is also a stand-in for the thing no one wants to talk about anymore — the pandemic. Inflation was an obvious, lingering and unavoidable daily reminder of something everyone has been trying to forget. Electing Trump probably felt like resetting to January 2020, before everything else that followed. Start over where we were.
I don’t think the Dems had a candidate, make or female, who was going to overcome that, but when Harris made the wouldn’t change a thing gaffe she cemented her perceived culpability for the thing no one wants to talk about.