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Trump / Musk (other than DOGE)

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Consumption growth that outpaced peers (was worst among peers under Trump 1.0)
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Strong labor force participation (and big relative improvement from Trump 1.0)
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Impressive relative inflation reduction (after Trump 1.0 had us leading the pack by the end of his term)
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Outstanding attraction of capital investment
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As I happened, I previously read Talcove’s prior written submission to another hearing —-


— and read about, but didn’t see his testimony in the MTG subcommittee. A lot of that prior written stuff and what he said in the MTG hearing has focused on COVID programs, which were subject to immense levels of fraud because they was designed to push out the funds first and fast in the face of the pandemic and try to clawback from fraudsters later. That was a design feature of the programs (push out money now and chase fraud later), like PPP (which was a project of Marco Rubio, implemented under Trump and continued for another round under Biden).

PPP and some other programs (particularly the employee retention tax credit) were rife with abuse and that was baked into the design.

Anyway, from reading about his testimony tonight, it seems he conflated intentional waiver of typical anti-fraud documentation requirements from the COVID-era programs with ordinary government programs (which always have a fraud problem separately but don’t have most of the security deficiencies baked into the COVID relief).

TAlcove seems to extrapolate COVID issues as though they directly apply to ordinary welfare programs even though the COVId era programs have notably less stringent requirements. No idea where he got the 20% number or $1 Trillion figure generally.
 
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Anyway, a lot of conservative groups tend to conflate error rates and fraud, and extrapolate sometimes wild estimates of welfare fraud on that basis. But there is fraud on welfare programs at differing rates for different programs.

For example:

“…
For every 10,000 households participating in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), about 14 contained a recipient who was investigated and determined to have committed fraud (via a 2018 report by the Congressional Research Service). Within SNAP, for every $10,000 paid in benefits, about $11 is determined by state agencies to have been overpaid due to recipient fraud.

To put this into perspective, the IRS estimates that for every $6 owed in federal taxes, $1 is not paid because of tax evasion or fraud. …”


Dated but still useful as it appears to track the same cross-arguments and stats about welfare fraud as we see now:


“…According to the Association of Certified Fraud Examiners (ACFE), the typical business loses 5 percent of its revenue to fraud each year. Even when detected, 40 to 50 percent of victimized companies don’t recover their losses. The industries most likely to be victims of fraud are the banking and financial sector; government and public administration; and manufacturing.

… It’s not easy to get agreement on actual fraud levels in government programs. Unsurprisingly, liberals say they’re low, while conservatives insist they’re astronomically high.

In truth, it varies from program to program. One government report says fraud accounts for less than 2 percent of unemployment insurance payments. It’s seemingly impossible to find statistics on “welfare” (i.e., TANF) fraud, but the best guess is that it’s about the same.

A bevy of inspector general reports found “improper payment” levels of 20 to 40 percent in state TANF programs -- but when you look at the reports, the payments appear all to be due to bureaucratic incompetence (categorized by the inspector general as either “eligibility and payment calculation errors” or “documentation errors”), rather than intentional fraud by beneficiaries.

A similar story emerges with everyone’s favorite punching bag, food stamps (or, as they’re known today, SNAP). Earlier this year, Senator John Thune of South Dakota and Rep. Marlin Stutzman of Indiana, both Republicans, introduced legislation to save $30 billion over 10 years from SNAP, purportedly by “eliminating loopholes, waste, fraud, and abuse.”

Once you dig into their fact sheet, however, none of the savings actually come from fraud, but rather from cutting funding and tightening benefits. That’s probably because fraud levels in SNAP appear to be as low as with the other “pure welfare” programs we just touched on: “Payment error” rates -- money sent in incorrect amounts and/or to the wrong people -- have declined from near 10 percent a decade ago to 3 to 4 percent today, most of it due, again, to government error, not active fraud.

The majority of food-stamp fraud appears to be generated by supermarkets “trafficking” in the food stamps. Beneficiaries intentionally ripping off the taxpayers account for perhaps 1 percent of payments.

… No one knows for sure how much Medicaid and Medicare fraud there is. According to the FBI, the cost for Medicare fraud is anywhere from 3 to 10 percent, while Attorney General Eric Holder estimates $60 to $90 billion in fraud in Medicare and almost the same amount in Medicaid fraud -- approaching 20 percent. While nowhere near as large as Medicare and Medicaid, the Supplemental Security Income (SSI) and Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) programs are each estimated to be paying about 10 percent of their expenditures in fraudulent claims.

To round out the picture, you can toss in defense contractor fraud -- perhaps as much as another $100 billion per year, roughly in the same range as Medicare and Medicaid combined. All told, fraud in federal programs may come to $300 billion a year or about 10 percent of the budget (as with financial services). …”
 
Anyway, a lot of conservative groups tend to conflate error rates and fraud, and extrapolate sometimes wild estimates of welfare fraud on that basis. But there is fraud on welfare programs at differing rates for different programs.

For example:

“…
For every 10,000 households participating in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), about 14 contained a recipient who was investigated and determined to have committed fraud (via a 2018 report by the Congressional Research Service). Within SNAP, for every $10,000 paid in benefits, about $11 is determined by state agencies to have been overpaid due to recipient fraud.

To put this into perspective, the IRS estimates that for every $6 owed in federal taxes, $1 is not paid because of tax evasion or fraud. …”


Dated but still useful as it appears to track the same cross-arguments and stats about welfare fraud as we see now:


“…According to the Association of Certified Fraud Examiners (ACFE), the typical business loses 5 percent of its revenue to fraud each year. Even when detected, 40 to 50 percent of victimized companies don’t recover their losses. The industries most likely to be victims of fraud are the banking and financial sector; government and public administration; and manufacturing.

… It’s not easy to get agreement on actual fraud levels in government programs. Unsurprisingly, liberals say they’re low, while conservatives insist they’re astronomically high.

In truth, it varies from program to program. One government report says fraud accounts for less than 2 percent of unemployment insurance payments. It’s seemingly impossible to find statistics on “welfare” (i.e., TANF) fraud, but the best guess is that it’s about the same.

A bevy of inspector general reports found “improper payment” levels of 20 to 40 percent in state TANF programs -- but when you look at the reports, the payments appear all to be due to bureaucratic incompetence (categorized by the inspector general as either “eligibility and payment calculation errors” or “documentation errors”), rather than intentional fraud by beneficiaries.

A similar story emerges with everyone’s favorite punching bag, food stamps (or, as they’re known today, SNAP). Earlier this year, Senator John Thune of South Dakota and Rep. Marlin Stutzman of Indiana, both Republicans, introduced legislation to save $30 billion over 10 years from SNAP, purportedly by “eliminating loopholes, waste, fraud, and abuse.”

Once you dig into their fact sheet, however, none of the savings actually come from fraud, but rather from cutting funding and tightening benefits. That’s probably because fraud levels in SNAP appear to be as low as with the other “pure welfare” programs we just touched on: “Payment error” rates -- money sent in incorrect amounts and/or to the wrong people -- have declined from near 10 percent a decade ago to 3 to 4 percent today, most of it due, again, to government error, not active fraud.

The majority of food-stamp fraud appears to be generated by supermarkets “trafficking” in the food stamps. Beneficiaries intentionally ripping off the taxpayers account for perhaps 1 percent of payments.

… No one knows for sure how much Medicaid and Medicare fraud there is. According to the FBI, the cost for Medicare fraud is anywhere from 3 to 10 percent, while Attorney General Eric Holder estimates $60 to $90 billion in fraud in Medicare and almost the same amount in Medicaid fraud -- approaching 20 percent. While nowhere near as large as Medicare and Medicaid, the Supplemental Security Income (SSI) and Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) programs are each estimated to be paying about 10 percent of their expenditures in fraudulent claims.

To round out the picture, you can toss in defense contractor fraud -- perhaps as much as another $100 billion per year, roughly in the same range as Medicare and Medicaid combined. All told, fraud in federal programs may come to $300 billion a year or about 10 percent of the budget (as with financial services). …”
A related article, from NBC News (dated March 28, 2022).

 
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White House forcing out top leadership at National Archives in major shakeup​




“The Trump administration is forcing out senior leadership at the National Archives and Records Administration in a major shakeup, according to a source familiar. President Donald Trump has been highly critical of the archives since the agency asked the Department of Justice to investigate Trump’s mishandling of classified documents after he left office.

Following the dismissal of Archivist Colleen Shoganlast week, Trump officials made it clear to agency staff that the White House wanted to remove the leadership team and replace top officials with Trump loyalists, according to the source.


The exodus of senior staff is seen as a huge loss for the agency, which is considered nonpartisan and dedicated to the preservation of history and documents.

The forced resignations come after Trump vowed to clean house at the agency.

The inspector general of the National Archives referred the case to the Department of Justice in 2022 after more than a year of trying to negotiate with Trump the return of presidential papers including highly classified documents. …”

New Blood Showtime GIF by Dexter
 

3 men claiming to be from DOGE show up at San Francisco City Hall, demand records​



[Sounds like DOGE wannabes/dopey would-be criminals or trolls — SF officials refused their demands and eventually they left]
 

Top US Election Security Watchdog Forced to Stop Election Security Work​

The US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency has frozen efforts to aid states in securing elections, according to an internal memo viewed by WIRED.


“… In a memo sent Friday to all CISA employees and obtained by WIRED, CISA’s acting director, Bridget Bean, said she was ordering “a review and assessment” of every position at the agency related to election security and countering mis- and disinformation, “as well as every election security and [mis-, dis-, and malinformation] product, activity, service, and program that has been carried out” since the federal government designated election systems as critical infrastructure in 2017.

“CISA will pause all elections security activities until the completion of this review,” Bean added. The agency is also cutting off funding for these activities at the Elections Infrastructure Information Sharing & Analysis Center, a group funded by the Department of Homeland Security that has served as a coordinating body for the elections community. …”
 
It was hard to tell because there wasn't actually any condemnation of Trump's pardons in your previous post, just calling other folks out for being hypocrites.

It is clearer in this one that you do acknowledge that Trump's pardons are problematic.



Well Done Adventure GIF by Sarah's Scribbles's Scribbles
But don't forget, Trump is only issuing ridiculous, dangerous pardons because of Biden's actions. He definitely wouldn't have done it otherwise so it's really Biden's fault.
 

White House forcing out top leadership at National Archives in major shakeup​




“The Trump administration is forcing out senior leadership at the National Archives and Records Administration in a major shakeup, according to a source familiar. President Donald Trump has been highly critical of the archives since the agency asked the Department of Justice to investigate Trump’s mishandling of classified documents after he left office.

Following the dismissal of Archivist Colleen Shoganlast week, Trump officials made it clear to agency staff that the White House wanted to remove the leadership team and replace top officials with Trump loyalists, according to the source.


The exodus of senior staff is seen as a huge loss for the agency, which is considered nonpartisan and dedicated to the preservation of history and documents.

The forced resignations come after Trump vowed to clean house at the agency.

The inspector general of the National Archives referred the case to the Department of Justice in 2022 after more than a year of trying to negotiate with Trump the return of presidential papers including highly classified documents. …”

New Blood Showtime GIF by Dexter
 

Trump officials fired nuclear staff not realizing they oversee the country’s weapons stockpile, sources say​




“Trump administration officials fired more than 300 staffers Thursday night at the National Nuclear Security Administration — the agency tasked with managing the nation’s nuclear stockpile — as part of broader Energy Department layoffs, according to four people with knowledge of the matter.

Sources told CNN the officials did not seem to know this agency oversees America’s nuclear weapons.

… The agency began rescinding the terminations Friday morning.

Some of the fired employees included NNSA staff who are on the ground at facilities where nuclear weapons are built. These staff oversee the contractors who build nuclear weapons, and they inspect these weapons.

It also included employees at NNSA headquarters who write requirements and guidelines for contractors who build nuclear weapons.

A source told CNN they believe these individuals were fired because “no one has taken anytime to understand what we do and the importance of our work to the nation’s national security.”

… Members of Congress made their concerns about the NNSA firings known to the Energy Department, a Hill staffer told CNN. A person with knowledge of the matter told CNN that senators visited Energy Sec. Chris Wright to express concern about the NNSA cuts.

“Congress is freaking out because it appears DOE didn’t really realize NNSA oversees the nuclear stockpile,” one source said.

“The nuclear deterrent is the backbone of American security and stability – period. For there to be any even very small holes poked even in the maintenance of that deterrent should be extremely frightening to people.” …”
 

Federal judge hands Musk’s DOGE a win on data access at 3 agencies​

A judge says DOGE is legally defined as an "agency."


“… U.S. District Judge John Bates, in a late-night ruling, denied a request made by a group of unions and nonprofits to issue a temporary order blocking DOGE from the sensitive records maintained by the three agencies.

Elon Musk has repeatedly targeted Bates over the last week on X – including calling for the judge's impeachment – after Bates issued a decision in another case ordering multiple agencies to restore public health data after the Trump administration suddenly removed it.


The judge's decision came down to the question of whether DOGE has the authority to "detail" its people to individual parts of the federal government where – as employees of that department or agency – the individuals associated with DOGE could legally access the sensitive records. To have that authority, DOGE would have to be considered an "agency" in the eyes of the law, Bates wrote.

Lawyers for the plaintiffs argued that DOGE is not an agency -- because it was created via an executive order -- and therefore is not entitled to detail its employees to parts of the federal government.

… Curiously, lawyers for DOGE have attempted to avoid the "agency" label during court hearings despite its "strong claim" to agency status, Bates wrote.

"This appears to come from a desire to escape the obligations that accompany agencyhood" -- such as being subject to the Freedom of Information Act, the Privacy Act and the Administrative Procedures Act -- "while reaping only its benefits," the judge wrote.

Ultimately, the disagreed with DOGE's own interpretation of its status -- determining it likely is an "agency" -- and delivering it a surprise win by determining that DOGE has the authority to continue to access to sensitive records. …”

——
A surprise win that would undermine DOGE’s claims to be protected from FOIA by virtue of being reconstituted under the Presidential Records Act.
 

FEMA firings reveal roiling tension and confusion within the Department of Homeland Security​



“One week into the Trump administration, Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem issued a directive that the Federal Emergency Management Agency should stop sending money to non-governmental organizations that she characterized as helping “illegal aliens.”

But the memo didn’t address money that flowed to state and local governments, fueling confusion at the agency charged with administering federal payments related to migrant housing. FEMA personnel were directed to continue sending those payments.

This week, four FEMA employees, including its chief financial officer, were fired and accused by the Department of Homeland Security of circumventing leadership. And more than $80 million in federal grant money to New York City to help shelter migrants was clawed back.

… The hold applied to the Shelter and Services Program. In fiscal year 2024, Congress appropriated $650 million for the program, according to the agency.

Two days later, acting DHS General Counsel Joseph Mazzara told DHS officials that money for state and local governments “should keep flowing” in response to queries about whether that kind of grant funding could proceed, according to an email obtained by CNN.

…In a February 4 email reviewed by CNN, Ryan Corle, a Homeland Security official, asked Mazzara whether the funding pause applied “only to NGOs, and then only to programs related in some way to immigration,” acknowledging that the question had continued to come up.

Should this be the general answer—that the pause does not apply to financial assistance to States and local governments—or would you like to look at the programs individually?” Corle wrote.

That is correct. No state and locals. Just NGOs. If the programs go to both, the NGO funds will be paused/repaired when further guidance goes out this morning,” Mazzara responded.

In response to questions from CNN, DHS spokeswoman Tricia McLaughlin accused the FEMA officials of deceit, arguing that they did not disclose that the funds would ultimately trickle down to an organization assisting migrants.

… New York City has used funds to pay for the Roosevelt Hotel in Manhattan, which became the city’s intake center for migrants, and sought reimbursements from the federal government. It has paid NYC Health + Hospitals as a contractor to provide services to migrants.

DHS officials argue the hotel has connections to the notorious Tren de Aragua gang.

“The FEMA employees had far more knowledge on this matter than the Acting General Counsel, and they should have provided all the information if they wanted to seek his advice,” McLaughlin added. …”
 
“… Netflix and Apple declined even to bid. Paramount made a lowball $4 million distribution-rights offer. Disney, the most interested studio besides Amazon, offered $14 million.

“We licensed the upcoming Melania Trump documentary film and series for one reason and one reason only—because we think customers are going to love it,” said an Amazon spokesman.

The first lady’s cut is more than 70% of the $40 million, according to people familiar with the matter. And they’re still looking for more: Melania’s agent has been trying to sell “sponsorships” for the film—starting at $10 million—to prominent CEOs and billionaires who were at the inauguration, according to people familiar with the matter. Buyers would get thanked at the end of the credits and be invited to the premiere. These overtures were made independently of the deal with Amazon, which was unaware of the outreach, according to a person familiar with the matter.

The Amazon deal is just one of the ways the new first family has benefited from its return to the White House. Companies have directed about $80 million to members of the Trump family and the Trump presidential library so far, as defendants settle lawsuits the president previously filed against them and corporations enter into new business ventures, including the documentary. This figure doesn’t include potential gains from crypto pursuits.

Much of the legal settlement money will go to a fund for the president’s library, a not-for-profit whose mission is to “preserve and steward” Trump’s legacy. But Trump’s share of a $10 million settlement Elon Musk’s X agreed to this week is expected to go to him directly, according to people familiar with the matter. …”
 
“… Netflix and Apple declined even to bid. Paramount made a lowball $4 million distribution-rights offer. Disney, the most interested studio besides Amazon, offered $14 million.

“We licensed the upcoming Melania Trump documentary film and series for one reason and one reason only—because we think customers are going to love it,” said an Amazon spokesman.

The first lady’s cut is more than 70% of the $40 million, according to people familiar with the matter. And they’re still looking for more: Melania’s agent has been trying to sell “sponsorships” for the film—starting at $10 million—to prominent CEOs and billionaires who were at the inauguration, according to people familiar with the matter. Buyers would get thanked at the end of the credits and be invited to the premiere. These overtures were made independently of the deal with Amazon, which was unaware of the outreach, according to a person familiar with the matter.

The Amazon deal is just one of the ways the new first family has benefited from its return to the White House. Companies have directed about $80 million to members of the Trump family and the Trump presidential library so far, as defendants settle lawsuits the president previously filed against them and corporations enter into new business ventures, including the documentary. This figure doesn’t include potential gains from crypto pursuits.

Much of the legal settlement money will go to a fund for the president’s library, a not-for-profit whose mission is to “preserve and steward” Trump’s legacy. But Trump’s share of a $10 million settlement Elon Musk’s X agreed to this week is expected to go to him directly, according to people familiar with the matter. …”
“…
Ty Cobb, who served as a top White House lawyer in Trump’s first administration and has since emerged as a critic, said the president’s efforts to profit this time are far bolder. “Everything he does is either to be vengeful or to accumulate wealth, power and adulation,” Cobb said. Trump sees an opportunity, he said, because “all these people want a piece of him.”

A spokesman for the first lady directed questions to the Trump Organization, which said it couldn’t comment on her behalf. The White House didn’t respond to requests for comment. …”

Melania Trump Kiss GIF by Taimi
 
“… The president’s eldest son, Don Jr., has been particularly active in lining up business deals that could benefit from his proximity to power.

…Days after his father won, he announced he would become a partner at 1789 Capital, a venture-capital firm that invests in conservative companies. Its investments include Tucker Carlson’s media company, Last Country. A spokesman for 1789 declined to comment.

He also took on roles at several companies that could stand to gain from federal policies, ranging from Pentagon spending to regulations for online-betting marketplaces to tariffs on China.


Some of President Trump’s most audacious moves have been in crypto, where he has invested heavily while at the same time boosting the larger industry. After once denouncing crypto as a “disaster waiting to happen,” Trump shifted his views on the campaign trail last year, pronouncing himself the “crypto president” and talking of turning America into the “crypto capital.”

Around the same time, Trump and his sons Eric and Don Jr. helped launch World Liberty Financial, a crypto firm that has raised more than $300 million selling its digital token, $WLFI.

The venture offers an avenue for foreign entities and those with business before the federal government to increase the Trump family’s wealth. People who purchase the tokens aren’t visible to the public unless they disclose it. …”
 
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