Walz — Comer Opens Congressional Investigation of Walz trips to China

I am no political strategist, and after how adamant I was that Biden shouldn't/wouldn't step aside nobody should take my political takes with much more than a grain of salt, but the more I think about it, the more I think that the VP pick needs to be Josh Shapiro. As much as I like Mark Kelly, I just think that strategically Pennsylvania is so crucial to Harris's electoral path that it makes the most sense to me to select Shapiro. I know that Arizona went blue in 2020 but I don't think we should feel like we can count on it to do so in 2024, and there is a much more viable pathway to victory without Arizona than there is sans Pennsylvania and their 19 EV's. With Pennsylvania, all Harris needs is Michigan and Wisconsin (and Nebraska-2) to win. She can even afford to have both Arizona and Georgia flip back, and have Nevada flip. Without Pennsylvania, she has to have both Arizona *and* Georgia in addition to Michigan and Wisconsin.

Maybe I'm overthinking it, and maybe Shapiro could still help her carry Pennsylvania even while not on the ticket. Or maybe Kelly could actually help ensure that Arizona stays blue this cycle. Or maybe VP picks don't really have that much of a substantial impact on the ticket's ability to carry their home state historically. But it just feels to me like pulling out all of the stops to make sure Pennsylvania is in the bag for Blue is the best strategy.
 
I've posted it before, but I still think that Shapiro and Kelly are likely to help Kamala the most. I like Cooper and Beshear, but I doubt that either of them could bring their home state with them (especially Beshear, no way deep-red KY ever votes for Kamala) and they both have less upside for this particular election than Shapiro or Kelly, imo. Beshear is still young and might actually be a strong candidate in 2028. I'm also wary of having Cooper leave NC for long periods of time as god knows what Robinson and the GOP state legislature might try to pull in his absence.
 
“Vice President Kamala Harris is making plans to announce a running mate by Aug. 7 and her aides are conducting the first round of interviews with people in consideration by video calls given the tight timeline, according to four people briefed on the plans.

…
The Harris campaign began the vetting process on Tuesday and aims to make its selection quickly in order to eliminate legal risk related to securing ballot access in Ohio, according to three of the four people briefed on the plans, as well as another person. Ohio law had mandated that the major political parties certify the names of their candidates for president and vice president by Aug. 7. In May, Ohio lawmakers pushed the state’s ballot access deadline to Sept. 1, but some Democrats say they do not trust that Republicans will not mount legal challenges if the party submits a ticket after Aug. 7.

Delegates to the Democratic National Convention will begin voting on Ms. Harris’s nomination for president on Aug. 1, provided that no one else qualifies to challenge her, the convention’s rules committee decided this week. The party’s rules do not require a similar roll-call vote for a vice-presidential nominee. That choice can be certified by the chair of the convention, Minyon Moore, a longtime Democratic Party official who is an ally of Ms. Harris. …”

 
CFordUNC said:
I am no political strategist, and after how adamant I was that Biden shouldn't/wouldn't step aside nobody should take my political takes with much more than a grain of salt, but the more I think about it, the more I think that the VP pick needs to be Josh Shapiro. As much as I like Mark Kelly, I just think that strategically Pennsylvania is so crucial to Harris's electoral path that it makes the most sense to me to select Shapiro. I know that Arizona went blue in 2020 but I don't think we should feel like we can count on it to do so in 2024, and there is a much more viable pathway to victory without Arizona than there is sans Pennsylvania and their 19 EV's. With Pennsylvania, all Harris needs is Michigan and Wisconsin (and Nebraska-2) to win. She can even afford to have both Arizona and Georgia flip back, and have Nevada flip. Without Pennsylvania, she has to have both Arizona *and* Georgia in addition to Michigan and Wisconsin.

Maybe I'm overthinking it, and maybe Shapiro could still help her carry Pennsylvania even while not on the ticket. Or maybe Kelly could actually help ensure that Arizona stays blue this cycle. Or maybe VP picks don't really have that much of a substantial impact on the ticket's ability to carry their home state historically. But it just feels to me like pulling out all of the stops to make sure Pennsylvania is in the bag for Blue is the best strategy.
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How popular is Shapiro in PA anyway? He won a landslide against one of the weakest gubernatorial candidates in a competitive race that I can remember. Also on the ballot was Oz.

I think she should pick the best person for her campaign. Don't worry about the geography. The chances that Shapiro-PA will decide the election are very low.
 
tallheel95 said:
My husband just sent this article to me, noting, "This is persuasive..."

slate.com

Every Harris VP Possibility Has Real Risk—Except for One

It’s quite clear who her best running mate would be.
slate.com slate.com
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I'm still not sold on two women on the ticket. I think that Whitmer would be a fantastic VP (or President), but I fear that an all-female ticket would cost some votes among independents and conservative never-Trumpers. IMO, still too much misogyny from men over 40 for two women on the same ticket.
 
TarHeelGrad said:
I'm still not sold on two women on the ticket. I think that Whitmer would be a fantastic VP (or President), but I fear that an all-female ticket would cost some votes among independents and conservative never-Trumpers. IMO, still too much misogyny from men over 40 for two women on the same ticket.
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Agreed. We're talking about the first AFAM female president. Now tack on a female VP.

Let's get an historic victory with the first one. I'd love the ticket personally and would wholeheartedly vote for them but I worry the country isn't quite ready. And with Trump 2.0 leering over this country, I'm hesitant to see us that leap of faith given the stakes.
 
CallMeTyler said:
Agreed. We're talking about the first AFAM female president. Now tack on a female VP.

Let's get an historic victory with the first one. I'd love the ticket personally and would wholeheartedly vote for them but I worry the country isn't quite ready. And with Trump 2.0 leering over this country, I'm hesitant to see us that leap of faith given the stakes.
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So now we are calling for a DEI white Boy nominee lol
(I agree with you callmetyler)
 
I think the issue set that Beshear emphasizes, as well as his contrast with JDV, make him the best candidate. Kelly also a good choice for similar reasons. Shapiro’s statements comparing Gaza protestors to the KKK turn me off to him.
 
mpaer said:
So now we are calling for a DEI white Boy nominee lol
(I agree with you callmetyler)
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Tonight Show Comedian GIF by The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon
 
Paine said:
I think the issue set that Beshear emphasizes, as well as his contrast with JDV, make him the best candidate. Kelly also a good choice for similar reasons. Shapiro’s statements comparing Gaza protestors to the KKK turn me off to him.
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Yeah but DAMN he was good in his speech today
 
Ddseddse said:
Do you see it as a legit Twitter replacement? I'm in the market. I've been twitter free since Musk took over, but I do miss what it was in the good old days.
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You didn’t ask me but I quoted you and can’t figure out an easy way to undo that, so I’ll respond … don’t know about Spoutible but I am on Threads. Had hoped for more there but gave up when they tried to limit news in your feed b/c FB imagined it as more a social influencer site. Still have my account there, may check it out again.
 
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