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2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

  • Thread starter Thread starter nycfan
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  • Politics 
aGDevil2k said:
Not bad given RCP includes red wave polls without issue.

Honestly, RCP used to be my go-to. I havent visted the site in over 2 years
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As far as I remember, RCP was one of the first aggregators of both polls and news that wasn't brazenly partisan, so I think there was a time where a lot of folks utilized the site.

But as better sources of aggregation of both news and polls were developed - especially polling - RCP fell by the wayside for a lot of folks and then RCP leaned heavily into having a conservative bent and most non-conservatives dropped them altogether.
 
LosPollosHermanos said:
Yeah I have heard some of this sentiment but the bottom line is voters this low on information and in a demographic sweating grocery prices are usually already Trump voters. The question is whether their misinterpretation of the cause of grocery prices/inflation is going to spur apathetic voters to go vote Trump, or turn a vote from Harris to Trump. I could be wrong but I just don't see this being anything like Dobbs or January 6 which are really, really motivating people.
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This is part of what has me frustrated with the current Democratic Party. Trumps legacy will be transitioning the Republican Party from a party viewed as out of touch elitists to the party of working class people. I used to love the fact that Democrats were for the “every man” and supported those who were focused on trades and less educated. The frustration hit a high for me during the college loan forgiveness thing. While not really opposed to it, that extremely expensive policy didn’t help the every man. They don’t really go to college and there’s nothing wrong with that.

I hope Harris takes the party back to its roots and less focus on the upper class and more of a movement toward those less fortunate. I do think she likely be that way more than Biden.
 
HeelingAg said:
This is scary.

Also, in the last several years RCP has received a large amount of money from extremely conservative donors. It’s become an outlet for whitewashing climate change denial, amongst other social causes, and was the outlet that unmasked the ttump-Ukraine extortion whistleblower.
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All fair but that’s not why the map reads this way. The map reads this way because they aggregate polls.
 
HintonJamesHeel said:
All fair but that’s not why the map reads this way. The map reads this way because they aggregate polls.
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Yes, but they allow red wave polls to skew their aggregation. And that's very likely to be related to the fact they're heavily funded by conservative donors.

I don't think there's any question 538's aggregation is more reliable now than RCP's. And I say that recognizing 538 has this as a 50-50 election, which I do not think it actually is.
 
HintonJamesHeel said:
This is part of what has me frustrated with the current Democratic Party. Trumps legacy will be transitioning the Republican Party from a party viewed as out of touch elitists to the party of working class people. I used to love the fact that Democrats were for the “every man” and supported those who were focused on trades and less educated. The frustration hit a high for me during the college loan forgiveness thing. While not really opposed to it, that extremely expensive policy didn’t help the every man. They don’t really go to college and there’s nothing wrong with that.

I hope Harris takes the party back to its roots and less focus on the upper class and more of a movement toward those less fortunate. I do think she likely be that way more than Biden.
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I understand the perception issue, but Dems are still the ones pushing for policies that benefit the "everyman" and Republicans are still the ones whose policies disproportionately benefit the "upper classes." The shift in voter allegiance has me frustrated too, but it's not because Trump or Republicans are actually doing anything to benefit the working class. They've won working-class voters over with culture war BS, not by actually doing anything to help those people. Unless you count horrible policy ideas that will likely never be implemented like "no taxes on tips!" that Trump cynically throws out.

Kamala's tax plan cuts taxes for the lower and middle classes; Trump's will raise their burden and make everything they buy more expensive through idiotic tariff policy. Dems are pro-union; Republicans have spent the last several decades weakening them with "right to work" laws and busting them. Dems want to make health care cheap and affordable; Trump and Reps want to repeal or weaken Obamacare and throw more people back in the "free market" where they have to pay more for health care or choose not to get it due to expense.
 
HintonJamesHeel said:
This is part of what has me frustrated with the current Democratic Party. Trumps legacy will be transitioning the Republican Party from a party viewed as out of touch elitists to the party of working class people. I used to love the fact that Democrats were for the “every man” and supported those who were focused on trades and less educated. The frustration hit a high for me during the college loan forgiveness thing. While not really opposed to it, that extremely expensive policy didn’t help the every man. They don’t really go to college and there’s nothing wrong with that.

I hope Harris takes the party back to its roots and less focus on the upper class and more of a movement toward those less fortunate. I do think she likely be that way more than Biden.
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It’s become really impressive how you have become someone who can be counted upon to have the absolute dumbest takes on every topic. You think that a billionaire who inherited a multi-hundred-million dollar fortune from his father, squandered it several times, lived in a gold-plated penthouse in Manhattan, and shits on literal golden toilets, and whose sole legislative success was cutting taxes for billionaires and corporations, represents the “working man” and the party led by Joe Biden and now Kamala Harris, both from middle income families who have spent their lives and careers in public service, do not represent the “working man.” You are either militantly ignorant or a yet another one of our recreational contrarians who have a humiliation fetish.
 
HintonJamesHeel said:
This is part of what has me frustrated with the current Democratic Party. Trumps legacy will be transitioning the Republican Party from a party viewed as out of touch elitists to the party of working class people. I used to love the fact that Democrats were for the “every man” and supported those who were focused on trades and less educated. The frustration hit a high for me during the college loan forgiveness thing. While not really opposed to it, that extremely expensive policy didn’t help the every man. They don’t really go to college and there’s nothing wrong with that.

I hope Harris takes the party back to its roots and less focus on the upper class and more of a movement toward those less fortunate. I do think she likely be that way more than Biden.
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Why does "every man" mean "not college educated"? Or to flip your script, some people do go to college and then work in fields like publishing or public health or social work, where they do not make much money. In fact, those fields pay less than a lot of blue collar work. They went to college, and there's really nothing wrong with that.

I don't think you really understand why the college loan thing is necessary. It's not doing a solid for college grads. Rather, it's helping to make up an extreme and unjustified discrimination against education loans in the bankruptcy code.
 
HintonJamesHeel said:
Which aggregator has compiled correctly according to you?
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What's the goal? If aggregation itself is the goal, I mean sure. But if truth is the goal, then at a minimum you will want to:

1. Rate pollsters based on some sort of evaluative methodology -- for instance, ensuring that they are in fact taking polls.
2. Attempt to assess the partisan lean of a pollster when evaluating the poll
3. Have some mechanism to prevent your poll aggregation from being overrun by junk
4. Use weights of some sort to give more emphasis to more important polls.

RCP is akin to judging basketball teams by their W/L record alone, without any adjustments for margin of victory or strength of schedule. If that's your cup of tea, go for it.
 
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