2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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theel4life said:
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I have no particular opinion of this Bouzy fellow, but I can tell you with certainty that this analysis is shit. That would be true even if the vote timing wasn't thrown way out of whack by hurricanes. There's no such thing as "this point in the voting period" -- especially since we have no idea who these voters will be actually voting for. Will there be significant #s of Dems voting R? Almost surely -- that's been the case throughout the South for generations. Vice versa? Probably, but perhaps to a lesser extent. We don't know. Which is why, if we need to look at something right now to gauge the state of the race, look at polls. Looking at returned ballots tells you nothing.
 
superrific said:
I have no particular opinion of this Bouzy fellow, but I can tell you with certainty that this analysis is shit. That would be true even if the vote timing wasn't thrown way out of whack by hurricanes. There's no such thing as "this point in the voting period" -- especially since we have no idea who these voters will be actually voting for. Will there be significant #s of Dems voting R? Almost surely -- that's been the case throughout the South for generations. Vice versa? Probably, but perhaps to a lesser extent. We don't know. Which is why, if we need to look at something right now to gauge the state of the race, look at polls. Looking at returned ballots tells you nothing.
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This guy is good. He nailed the 2022 elections.
 


That’s a change from September’s NBC News poll, which found Harris leading Trump by 5 points, 49%-44%, though that result was within the margin of error.

Different polls different years, but on October 15, 2020, the NBC poll had Biden +11 nationally, 53-42.
 
superrific said:
I have no particular opinion of this Bouzy fellow, but I can tell you with certainty that this analysis is shit. That would be true even if the vote timing wasn't thrown way out of whack by hurricanes. There's no such thing as "this point in the voting period" -- especially since we have no idea who these voters will be actually voting for. Will there be significant #s of Dems voting R? Almost surely -- that's been the case throughout the South for generations. Vice versa? Probably, but perhaps to a lesser extent. We don't know. Which is why, if we need to look at something right now to gauge the state of the race, look at polls. Looking at returned ballots tells you nothing.
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The biggest issue to me is not the timing of the early vote, which is always a terrible predictor of outcomes. It’s that he doesn’t account for the massive change in the Florida electorate over the last few years. Some states are becoming bluer. Florida, with every Boomer moving to the Villages and Ft Myers, is becoming much redder. Scott is at some small amount of risk because he’s a dipshit, but I’ll be shocked if Florida goes blue in a presidential election in my lifetime.
 
superrific said:
Being right once is meaningless. How did he do in 2020, 2018 or 2016?

Regardless of his track record, that analysis above is shit. Objectively.
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IMO he did very well in 2020. He wasn't doing that stuff in 2016 at least. I first started to know who he was because he was absolutely nailing Georgia and Arizona.
He's also very pompous and his obsession with Florida is just weird (and not near where any focus should be). Now if he gets it right? I will be shocked and dude will deserve his massive props
 
aGDevil2k said:
What the hell is the point of doing RVs just 3 weeks out? Hmmmm. Weird stuff from NBC
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Because it’s a high turnout election and LV requires a lot of assumptions stacked on the demographics? @nycfan made this point recently that RV polls might actually be pretty reflective at this point (presuming I read the point correctly).
 
Geisterfahrer said:
Because it’s a high turnout election and LV requires a lot of assumptions stacked on the demographics? @nycfan made this point recently that RV polls might actually be pretty reflective at this point (presuming I read the point correctly).
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Yes, that was my point earlier — in such a high turnout election RV seems to be a better approach.
 
BlueSmoke said:
An incumbent President never loses a reelection with the economy doing this well. Now Harris isn't an incumbent. But I would think in the closing weeks she should be leaning into the economy much more in her messaging. Might help with the very groups she is worried about.
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I don't know if she can really lean into the economy, but Trump is sure as hell running away from the economy. He's all in on immigration and racism as we head to the line. Their polling must be showing the economy is no longer a great argument for Pubs, even if it's also difficult for Dems.
 
BlueSmoke said:
An incumbent President never loses a reelection with the economy doing this well. Now Harris isn't an incumbent. But I would think in the closing weeks she should be leaning into the economy much more in her messaging. Might help with the very groups she is worried about.
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Counterpoint - all around the world the governments that were in charge for the post-COVID economic struggles are losing reelection bids left and right. (Saw that point made on Twitter recently, I believe by Matt Yglesias.)
 
lawtig02 said:
I don't know if she can really lean into the economy, but Trump is sure as hell running away from the economy. He's all in on immigration and racism as we head to the line. Their polling must be showing the economy is no longer a great argument for Pubs, even if it's also difficult for Dems.
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eh I don't know that Trump is really running away from the economy, he's just folding all that extra immigration/xenophobia in. I'm still seeing plenty of the Trump ads mocking Kamala for touting "Bidenomics."
 
Geisterfahrer said:
Because it’s a high turnout election and LV requires a lot of assumptions stacked on the demographics? @nycfan made this point recently that RV polls might actually be pretty reflective at this point (presuming I read the point correctly).
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It's not correct - there are always lots of people that are registered and dont vote. They are usually democrats. In High D turnouts, those can be missed but if it is not a balanced high turnout then RV polls fail. If one side is way more enthused, those polls suck
 
aGDevil2k said:
IMO he did very well in 2020. He wasn't doing that stuff in 2016 at least. I first started to know who he was because he was absolutely nailing Georgia and Arizona.
He's also very pompous and his obsession with Florida is just weird (and not near where any focus should be). Now if he gets it right? I will be shocked and dude will deserve his massive props
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I also nailed GA and AZ. That doesn't make me an expert. How'd he do in WI with Barnes v Johnson? Or Florida in 2018? If you only count the predictions that were true and forget the ones that are false . . . it makes you a college basketball recruiting analyst (or at least that's how it was in the old days).

Even if he gets it right -- well, there's such a thing as being right for wrong reasons. That concept might be counter-intuitive to you as an engineer (lol, that's an engineer joke, not a you joke -- I studied engineering for five semesters in college before switching to physics), but to me as a law professor, it's one of the most important concepts in the entire universe. We wouldn't have jobs otherwise.
 
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