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Glad to see your post . I know every time you sneeze you forget more than I ever knew about this stuff. I hear you
2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden
- Thread starter nycfan
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- Politics
Macksbrownies
Exceptional Member
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North Carolina's historically Black colleges are mobilizing for Nov. 5, tapping an activist history
North Carolina's 10 historically Black colleges are going all out to get their nearly 40,000 students to vote.
apnews.com
The saviors of NC will arrive on Nov 5th.
lightbluenc
Esteemed Member
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NC Turnout Rates (by party registration) from previous Elections:
as it currently stands
after 10/31 (still have two days of EV to go)
R 55.8
D 51.3 (-4.5)
U 43.0 (-12.8)
2022
R 58.6
D 51.3 (-6.5)
U 44.8 (-13.8)
2020
R 81.6
D 75.1 (-6.5)
U 69.8 (-12)
2018
R 56
D 52 (-4)
U 45 (-11)
2016
R 75
D 68 (-7)
U 63 (-12)
2014
R 51
D 46 (-5)
U 36 (-15)
2012
R 73
D 70 (-3)
U 60 (-13)
2010
R 50
D 44 (-6)
U 33 (-17)
2008
R 71
D 71
U 61 (-10)
editing to add: I believe if Dems can maintain under a 6% difference in turnout with R's, then we have a shot. I don't know what to think of unaffiliated haha, hoping turnout differences are more like 2018, 2012 or 2008 in a best case scenario of course.
as it currently stands
after 10/31 (still have two days of EV to go)
R 55.8
D 51.3 (-4.5)
U 43.0 (-12.8)
2022
R 58.6
D 51.3 (-6.5)
U 44.8 (-13.8)
2020
R 81.6
D 75.1 (-6.5)
U 69.8 (-12)
2018
R 56
D 52 (-4)
U 45 (-11)
2016
R 75
D 68 (-7)
U 63 (-12)
2014
R 51
D 46 (-5)
U 36 (-15)
2012
R 73
D 70 (-3)
U 60 (-13)
2010
R 50
D 44 (-6)
U 33 (-17)
2008
R 71
D 71
U 61 (-10)
editing to add: I believe if Dems can maintain under a 6% difference in turnout with R's, then we have a shot. I don't know what to think of unaffiliated haha, hoping turnout differences are more like 2018, 2012 or 2008 in a best case scenario of course.
Macksbrownies
Exceptional Member
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- 122
Look at unaffiliated as “Diet Dem”. Republicans are simply outnumbered. Just a matter of turnout.
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- 2,656
I'm not sure that's right in NC. I would bet that the indies break no more than 55/45 for Dems.
This seems important, and reinforces my belief that this election will flip traditional norms on their heads. Older, affluent white voters (with more to lose) may lean Harris, and younger males (with less to lose) may lean Trump.
Half the nation has already voted, it's getting late in the game.
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Shocker: the international betting markets that Elon and others have been harping on are likely being heavily manipulated (this was already discussed/reported, but this is a newer story):
fortune.com
(Also, note that Polymarket has trended from a high of 67% or so in favor of Trump back down to 62%, pretty much immediately after Elon started making his favorite teen boy joke by hoping it would get to "69.420%"
Exclusive: Election betting site Polymarket is rife with fake ‘wash’ trading, researchers say
Blockchain evidence points to users carrying out market manipulation to inflate trading volumes on the popular political betting platform.
(Also, note that Polymarket has trended from a high of 67% or so in favor of Trump back down to 62%, pretty much immediately after Elon started making his favorite teen boy joke by hoping it would get to "69.420%"
superrific
Master of the ZZLverse
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Don't give them any ideas on who to nominate in 2028.
Republicans, it's time for your reckoning!
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“You merely adopted the fascism. I was born in it, molded by it.”
superrific
Master of the ZZLverse
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40K ain't gonna be saviors. I understand your sentiment, but I fear we're going to need a BIG turnout on Tuesday.
North Carolina's historically Black colleges are mobilizing for Nov. 5, tapping an activist history
North Carolina's 10 historically Black colleges are going all out to get their nearly 40,000 students to vote.
The saviors of NC will arrive on Nov 5th.
I’d guess 98+% of the people who’ve already voted knew how they were voting 100 days ago.
It’s still possible to convince a few voters.
My wife and I just got back from adding two straight D tickets. I’m registered UA and she’s Dem.
lawtig02
Inconceivable Member
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I’m not saying anything that happens will change the outcome. I think that’s already baked. I just won’t be surprised to see some fireworks this weekend, even by Trump standards, as he starts to realize it’s all collapsing around him.
superrific
Master of the ZZLverse
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I'm not sure this is a logical argument. It's assuming that state partisan leans are the same as they have been in the last eight years, which seems (at least from poll data) not to be the case now.
But I think the real reason is simple: nobody is actually excited about voting for Trump right now. Not even his base. They will, and they are turning out to vote for him because they're inexplicably shit-scared of Kamala even though the last 12 years of Dem administrations have been good for most people. But anyway, if your vote requires you to plug your nose, and you don't live in a swing state, then why bother?
It is entirely possible that the Dems enthusiasm advantage will show up mostly where it doesn't matter. Hopefully not. Probably not. But it's possible. When I lived in NYC I sometimes didn't vote. I was too busy and it didn't mean anything and I was not excited about John Kerry. If I had been living in Ohio, my attitude would have been different.