2024 Presidential Election | ELECTION DAY 2024

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CFordUNC said:
The data hasn’t changed. There have been tiny movements within the margin of error. That’s it. This is all nothing more than people’s stress and anxiety. I’m not blaming anyone for feeling those things, but those are the explanation for the doom and gloom, not any actual meaningful data.
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You're right, just the early vote data doesn't seem to be as strong for Dems as we hoped it'd would be. And there's still a lot of guesswork involved there since its just registered party etc etc, but I'd hoped for better turnout numbers at this stage from registered Dems here in NC.
 
Awinisawin said:
I can’t be the only one who can’t wrap their head around what’s happening here. For Pete’s sake, every communication out of the republicans at this stage is about fascisim and racism and hatred, and they are doing it brazenly because it plays very well, apparently. And the people yell hurray because they think this is fun? Wtf. If Trump wins some sort of me wants the whole thing to collapse in on itself. And while everyone suffers, those dumbasses I want to suffer disproportionately so. I would want so bad for them to be crushed under their decision and feel the realization of their own dumbass. I want them to have eternal ridicule and derision.

Hitler had a war to drive the “success” of his regime, at least for a while. What tf do our current numb nuts have when it all collapses. What’s the thing that makes them feel good about what’s happening. Another war? It’s all disgusting and repulsive.
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This is what I struggle with. I am a straight white male with no debt and own property in two countries, neither of which is the United States. I have absolutely nothing to lose if Trump is elected and I am terrified. You then see people who have everything from their family member's presence in the U.S., to the cost of everyday goods, to the status of their marriages, to the fact that themselves and/or their female relatives could die in a hospital parking lot and they are like "OH YEAH, I WANT THAT!"

Misinformation, ignorance, hatred, fear of the other - the four horsemen of this election.
 
nycfan said:


I think we way overuse “whistleblower” these days to imbue people with unearned credibility, so grain of salt on this report, but it is easy to believe about the grift at the top b/c it appears from the outside to be grift all the way down.
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Grift and greed...in the Republican Party?!?

I am so shocked I will need to take the rest of the day to recover.
 
altmin said:
John Heilemann reporting on MSNBC this morning that the Harris campaign is not very optimistic about NC or AZ. Holding out hope for Georgia.
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Yeah that conflicts what someone was reporting on the campaign on Friday (they feel hopeful about NC, more confident about GA and think Arizona is not overly likely this time)
 
lightbluenc said:
You're right, just the early vote data doesn't seem to be as strong for Dems as we hoped it'd would be. And there's still a lot of guesswork involved there since its just registered party etc etc, but I'd hoped for better turnout numbers at this stage from registered Dems here in NC.
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Are you saying dems arent voting, or that the GOP is voting early?
 
aGDevil2k said:
Yeah that conflicts what someone was reporting on the campaign on Friday (they feel hopeful about NC, more confident about GA and think Arizona is not overly likely this time)
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Tried googling this, but couldn't find anything. Do you have a link?
 
05C40 said:
If North Carolina isn't going to go blue with someone like Mark Robinson at the top of the state ticket, then the Democratic Party should just stop spending money here.
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Trump won by 74,483 votes in 2020. I predict that number to be microscopic this year and/or Harris pulls it off. Since 2020, NC has averaged 99,000 people moving into the state. Considering the continuing booming growth of the major cities/suburbs and everything else that has happened since 2020, I truly believe Harris has a legit shot to take the state.
 
05C40 said:
If North Carolina isn't going to go blue with someone like Mark Robinson at the top of the state ticket, then the Democratic Party should just stop spending money here.
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Unfortunately it’s not the gubernatorial race that draws people to the polls or predicts the outcome of the presidential race. We saw in the last two elections that there was no correlation between which party won the presidential race and which party won the gubernatorial race in NC. Trump vastly over-performed the Republican gubernatorial candidate each time.
 
I've meant to post this before but kept forgetting to do it. I frequently drive past the NC Democratic Party Headquarters and the Republican Party Headquarters on Hillsborough Street in Raleigh. On the lawn of the Dem party headquarters are a lot of signs - all the major candidates, including a Teamsters for Harris sign. On the lawn of the Pub party headquarters are hardly any signs. There is no Robinson sign (no surprise there) and there is no Trump sign (is surprising to me).
 
aGDevil2k said:
Yeah that conflicts what someone was reporting on the campaign on Friday (they feel hopeful about NC, more confident about GA and think Arizona is not overly likely this time)
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At this point it feels like we are waiting for a 3-point shot to fall while down 2 late in a game. Media needs to print something hence the chattering from "insiders".
 

From last week but still important to remember

“This thing’s very close. It’s a margin-of-error race,” Plouffe added.

Plouffe said he would rather be Harris than Trump at this stage of the race, though it remains very close. He said he was hopeful for the Democrat’s chances, looking at Harris’s strength among some Republicans and Republican-leaning independent voters.

“I think Kamala Harris may surprise at the end of the day with either straight-up Republicans or independents who are essentially Republicans. We’re seeing a continued strength there, and that matters a great deal, given how big those cohorts are,” he said.


“But listen: I think it may be that our internal data is exactly right. But if I were to hazard a guess, I think it may be undercounting her strength amongst Republican-leaning independents. So, we won’t put that in the bank, but let’s hope that’s right,” he later added.
 
Icky Mettle said:
Unfortunately it’s not the gubernatorial race that draws people to the polls or predicts the outcome of the presidential race. We saw in the last two elections that there was no correlation between which party won the presidential race and which party won the gubernatorial race in NC. Trump vastly over-performed the Republican gubernatorial candidate each time.
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Exactly. North Carolina will reject Robinson soundly, but lots of people will be splitting their tickets.
 
altmin said:
I have absolutely nothing to lose if Trump is elected and I am terrified.
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Everybody in the world has something to lose if Trump is elected.

Try this scenario out: Trump enacts tariffs. The tariffs are met with retaliatory tariffs. The US economy craters, inflation runs rampant. Tax receipts will be down, and social safety net expenditures way up. And Trump, congenitally unable to admit he was wrong, decides to have the US declare bankruptcy (in essence, by not raising debt ceiling) to screw foreigners. And then we get a worldwide economic collapse.

I wish the rest of the world would get to work on finding a different reserve currency. It is extremely dangerous to have so much financial infrastructure concentrated in a country that, best case scenario, is a hair's width from electing a complete and utter madman who understands nothing about the world.
 
aGDevil2k said:

From last week but still important to remember

“This thing’s very close. It’s a margin-of-error race,” Plouffe added.

Plouffe said he would rather be Harris than Trump at this stage of the race, though it remains very close. He said he was hopeful for the Democrat’s chances, looking at Harris’s strength among some Republicans and Republican-leaning independent voters.

“I think Kamala Harris may surprise at the end of the day with either straight-up Republicans or independents who are essentially Republicans. We’re seeing a continued strength there, and that matters a great deal, given how big those cohorts are,” he said.


“But listen: I think it may be that our internal data is exactly right. But if I were to hazard a guess, I think it may be undercounting her strength amongst Republican-leaning independents. So, we won’t put that in the bank, but let’s hope that’s right,” he later added.
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two weeks ago but sure. I'd be curious to know if the campaign internals are still what they were two weeks ago. I suspect they are, but who knows.

Interestingly, I was called for a survey over the weekend. The interviewer sure seemed like he was a Dem. When I would interrupt him as he went though the choices of candidates to say, "the Dem," he seemed to be put in a good mood by that. That alarmed me a little bit, because it might explain why MAGAs don't like phone polls and that problem might still be there. Just a little bit. It's also possible that he was tired and liked having a respondent as efficient as me. Or that he is trained to do that no matter who says what, because positivity keeps me on the call? Point is -- I have no point. It's just a FWIW.
 
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