EXIT POLLS & TURNOUT DATA - The Red Shift

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mpaer said:
Hopefully the Mid Terms will be a big plus
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My optimism is shot. There are more red stars than blue states and I don’t see democratic US Senate candidates succeeding in red states. That of course has a huge impact on federal judicial appointments. And gerrymandering is an issue in the House.
 
Paine said:
Reason for optimism regarding the midterms: low propensity voters don’t vote in midterms. Dems can have a good 2026, especially in the House, if they have the right message.
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And Dems could have a GREAT 2026 and not move the needle at all in the House because of Gerrymandering which the Federal Government is fully on board with. If you think for one second that Republicans plan to cede power in any way, you haven't paid attention to NC over the last decade. Even with a Dem governor, Republicans have ALL the power in this state. They used the first opportunity that they had power to cement it and now it can quite literally never be undone. There isn't enough voting power to overcome the districting.
 
lightbluenc said:
The very folks that said Dems need to find any other candidate, other than Biden, to run. They all stayed home because they didn't like the candidate.
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I can hardly wait to see how they like the candidate they got now. Fools at the end of the day.
 
lightbluenc said:
Two years to find a new voice of the party, which I think really needs to do some soul searching on what we want to be. Can't keep doing the same thing.
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The Obama era is gone. Love him...best president ever. But it's a new time. We need YOUNG bootstrap minds.
 
wmheel1287 said:
And Dems could have a GREAT 2026 and not move the needle at all in the House because of Gerrymandering which the Federal Government is fully on board with. If you think for one second that Republicans plan to cede power in any way, you haven't paid attention to NC over the last decade. Even with a Dem governor, Republicans have ALL the power in this state. They used the first opportunity that they had power to cement it and now it can quite literally never be undone. There isn't enough voting power to overcome the districting.
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Eh - look this was a massive red wave election. And even in that, the house, assuming it goes red, will be soooo slightly red. Democrats can and should win the house in 2 years
 
Paine said:
Rosen has pulled ahead in Nevada.

If Bob Casey can pull it out somehow, I’d take a 52/48 Senate compared to how it was looking late Tuesday night.
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A 52/48 senate wouldn’t even be a red wave, especially with a virtually even House. Crazy the amount of people that would vote for Trump but not the sycophants below him
 
uncjhodges said:
A 52/48 senate wouldn’t even be a red wave, especially with a virtually even House. Crazy the amount of people that would vote for Trump but not the sycophants below him
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It was just by the amount states shifted red for president.

They shifted because hispanics shifted AND low-turnout democrats did not vote.
 
Paine said:
If there’s one constant in the MAGA era, it’s that his voters do not turn out when he’s not on the ballot. Hopefully we can pick up some Senate seats in 2026. The post-Trump Republican Party will be weaker, IMO. A lot to get through before that though…

The Senate map in 2026 isn’t great for Dems, but it isn’t nearly as bad as 2024. Pickup opportunities in NC, ME. Possibly TX, IA, and KS.

Have to defend Ossoff though.
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It could be a very favorable dem election cycle if we fix our shit.

It's time to win senate races in red states.

And yeah one thing Trump and Obama have in common is that their popularity really, really sucks and transferring to others in the party.
 
Exit polls show that Republicans got younger and more diverse. They are growing really substantially with Hispanics, the largest streaking demographic.

The Democrats need to course correct very quickly for 2028. The Democrats need to get more competitive in the South as the 2030 adjustment is going to give more electoral votes to Republican leaning states.

Florida +3
NC +1
Georgia + 1
Tennessee +1
Texas +4
Arizona +1
Utah +1
Idaho + 1
All the losses come from liberal leaning states
Republican leaning states will get 12 more EC votes so democrats must act now.

Keys:
1. Get back to talking about how to elevate lower class individuals. Quit talking about the uneducated as if it’s a plague. The country was founded on workers and trade people.
2. Quit focusing on taxing corporations. Do it potentially but quit talking about it so much.
3. Push back on the extremes of the party whether it’s transgender extremism, the stupid sports thing, coddling college students who support terrorists, etc.
4. Get a damn message and stick to it. Quit getting distracted by the shithole people at Fox.
5. Cut the celebrities out. No one gives a damn who Beyoncé or Taylor Swift is voting for.
 
uncjhodges said:
A 52/48 senate wouldn’t even be a red wave, especially with a virtually even House. Crazy the amount of people that would vote for Trump but not the sycophants below him
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A 52/48 split is enough of a majority that there will be expectations too pass whatever Trump wants, but small enough that it will occasionally put someone in a tight spot.
 
HintonJamesHeel said:
Exit polls show that Republicans got younger and more diverse. They are growing really substantially with Hispanics, the largest streaking demographic.

The Democrats need to course correct very quickly for 2028. The Democrats need to get more competitive in the South as the 2030 adjustment is going to give more electoral votes to Republican leaning states.

Florida +3
NC +1
Georgia + 1
Tennessee +1
Texas +4
Arizona +1
Utah +1
Idaho + 1
All the losses come from liberal leaning states
Republican leaning states will get 12 more EC votes so democrats must act now.

Keys:
1. Get back to talking about how to elevate lower class individuals. Quit talking about the uneducated as if it’s a plague. The country was founded on workers and trade people.
2. Quit focusing on taxing corporations. Do it potentially but quit talking about it so much.
3. Push back on the extremes of the party whether it’s transgender extremism, the stupid sports thing, coddling college students who support terrorists, etc.
4. Get a damn message and stick to it. Quit getting distracted by the shithole people at Fox.
5. Cut the celebrities out. No one gives a damn who Beyoncé or Taylor Swift is voting for.
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I don't get the celebrity part. Hulk Hogan and a bunch of others don't either. You could claim Elon Musk is a celebrity at this point.
 
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