lightbluenc
Esteemed Member
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- 655
For reference, in 2020:BTW if only 1.2 million folks in NC vote today (which isnt really a lot), then the state passes 80% turnout
R - 81.6%
D- 75.1%
U - 69.8%
Overall was 75% I think
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For reference, in 2020:BTW if only 1.2 million folks in NC vote today (which isnt really a lot), then the state passes 80% turnout
Slight? On Polymarket you can bet 38 cents to win a dollar if Harris wins.Just put some money on Harris. Easy money. For some reason the betting odds have Trump a slight favorite.
On Bovada, Trump is -165 and Harris is +130Slight? On Polymarket you can bet 38 cents to win a dollar if Harris wins.
I'm thinking about selling my Dogecoin today. It has gone up 100% in the last few weeks and I have a feeling it will crash if Kamala wins.Just put some money on Harris. Easy money. For some reason the betting odds have Trump a slight favorite.
Bet all your Dogecoin on Harris to win and you can more than double its value again since she’s a slight underdog in the betting markets.I'm thinking about selling my Dogecoin today. It has gone up 100% in the last few weeks and I have a feeling it will crash if Kamala wins.
That's more effort than my $1,500 of dogecoin is worth.Bet all your Dogecoin on Harris to win and you can more than double its value again since she’s a slight underdog in the betting markets.
There's an arbitrage opportunity, I .e free money, if the fees don't eat your profits.Just put some money on Harris. Easy money. For some reason the betting odds have Trump a slight favorite.
Any day to is a good day to sell something of zero value to people who will pay you money for it.I'm thinking about selling my Dogecoin today. It has gone up 100% in the last few weeks and I have a feeling it will crash if Kamala wins.
This is a great example of why these betting markets are not good predictors of anything. A market that can't even rid itself of obvious arbitrage opportunities is not one that can produce meaningful price discovery.There's an arbitrage opportunity, I .e free money, if the fees don't eat your profits.
Polymarket has Harris at $0.38 to win a dollar. Predictit has Trump at $0.55 to win a dollar. Bet on Harris on polymarket and Trump on predictit. You will have bet $0.93 and no matter who wins, you win a dollar profiting $0.07.
This assumes that there are no outcomes such as no one wins which I guess something crazy could happen. But if something like that does happen, you'll probably have a lot more to worry about than your bets.
I have yet to see a single data point from today's voting that has any predictive value whatsoever. And that's to be completely expected. Just so many commentators needing something to draw eyes.So stupid. So very stupid. The Florida Dems might be cooked but it's not because of that. When will political analysts realize that voters' party registrations don't necessarily reflect their current partisanship. To say nothing of the folly of selecting the skewed sample of half a day of voting and calling that the result.
I’m just sharing tweets here - it did make me laugh that we are forecasting the morning of E Day to mean it’s over.So stupid. So very stupid. The Florida Dems might be cooked but it's not because of that. When will political analysts realize that voters' party registrations don't necessarily reflect their current partisanship. To say nothing of the folly of selecting the skewed sample of half a day of voting and calling that the result.
Exactly. Apparently dade and hillsborough counties arent voting where dems need, but it's florida so...I have yet to see a single data point from today's voting that has any predictive value whatsoever. And that's to be completely expected. Just so many commentators needing something to draw eyes.
First of all, you're a hero! Thanks for deciding to doorknock. I know from experience how tough it is to take that first step and commit to going out.Just my little anecdote leading into Election Day - of 18 houses yesterday where we were able to talk with someone, 9 residences (1-4) people had already voted and 9 residences were voting today. As I had reported last week, an elderly black lady said she was waiting to vote today with a large group from her church. All these anecdotes should be considered straight blue.
I was a bit disappointed that the database used to generate the canvassing maps was in some cases 7+ years out of date. In some neighborhoods this can represent quite a bit of turnover. It was surprising that even in mixed race neighborhoods the current new residents were typically other blue voters.
ETA: All visits were in Cabarrus County, which is considered one of the seven light red counties nationwide most likely to flip to light blue.
But by definition if someone will pay you money for it, then it is not zero value.Any day to is a good day to sell something of zero value to people who will pay you money for it.