EXIT POLLS & TURNOUT DATA - The Red Shift

  • Thread starter Thread starter nycfan
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I don't get why CNN & MSNBC are actually asking people in a voting line or who have just voted who they voted for and why. Interviewing a couple of people doesn't give any clue as to what's actually going on. I don't care how Billy from suburban Pittsburgh voted - analyze the actual voting results and exit poll data!
 
Mulberry Heel said:
I don't get why CNN & MSNBC are actually asking people in a voting line or who have just voted who they voted for and why. Interviewing a couple of people doesn't give any clue as to what's actually going on. I don't care how Billy from suburban Pittsburgh voted - analyze the actual voting results and exit poll data!
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There's a Kornacki cam on YouTube which just shows his board
 
Paine said:
Several of us tried to tell y’all to not get your hopes up regarding Florida. No need to freak out about a state that we weren’t going to win. Now can we stop talking about Chris Bouzy?
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I don't think anyone being realistic thought Florida was in play
 
So far, back of the napkin, Kamala seems to be getting about 90-91% of the votes that Stein is getting (he is in a historically strong position).

Jeff Jackson is at about 93+%, so he is out-performing Harris so far. She is tracking very slightly behind Mo Green as a share of Stein (who is already declare the winner).
 
Paine said:
Several of us tried to tell y’all to not get your hopes up regarding Florida. No need to freak out about a state that we weren’t going to win. Now can we stop talking about Chris Bouzy?
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And remember, if Trump is +12 or more in Florida, that’s probably good news for Kamala in the swing states.
 
nycfan said:
So far, back of the napkin, Kamala seems to be getting about 90-91% of the votes that Stein is getting (he is in a historically strong position).

Jeff Jackson is at about 93+%, so he is out-performing Harris so far. She is tracking very slightly behind Mo Green as a share of Stein (who is already declare the winner).
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Great data, thanks for doing that math. All makes sense. Looking at vote shares as a % of Stein is a great way to look at NC.
 
The Needle is good, but we prob don't need screenshots.

Nycfan, if you scroll down the needle page, it tells you what % of the forecast is based on polls, models and actual results. For PA, it's 39% polls and 0% actual results.

Can we have a moratorium on posting Needle results unless the forecast is based significantly on actual results?
 
superrific said:
The Needle is good, but we prob don't need screenshots.

Nycfan, if you scroll down the needle page, it tells you what % of the forecast is based on polls, models and actual results. For PA, it's 39% polls and 0% actual results.

Can we have a moratorium on posting Needle results unless the forecast is based significantly on actual results?
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Everyone should be able to understand on their own that the probabilities given by the needle are only based on the results we have so far. No more and no less.
 
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