EXIT POLLS & TURNOUT DATA - The Red Shift

  • Thread starter Thread starter nycfan
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The Needle is good, but we prob don't need screenshots.

Nycfan, if you scroll down the needle page, it tells you what % of the forecast is based on polls, models and actual results. For PA, it's 39% polls and 0% actual results.

Can we have a moratorium on posting Needle results unless the forecast is based significantly on actual results?
 
superrific said:
The Needle is good, but we prob don't need screenshots.

Nycfan, if you scroll down the needle page, it tells you what % of the forecast is based on polls, models and actual results. For PA, it's 39% polls and 0% actual results.

Can we have a moratorium on posting Needle results unless the forecast is based significantly on actual results?
Click to expand...
Everyone should be able to understand on their own that the probabilities given by the needle are only based on the results we have so far. No more and no less.
 
Our only hope is that he’s not as off the rails as he promised to be during the campaign.
 
When I went to bed in 2020, I thought Trump had won the election. It wasn’t until lunchtime the next day that Biden came back in Georgia

I don’t think the votes are there I. Georgia but we need to wait and see.

We also have a lot of votes to count in NC and she seems to be doing better here.

I am pretty worried about Wisconsin and Michigan, though. But we may not know either tonight.
 
NYT needle has Trump at 79%

Bovada betting market has Trump at -850 which feels way too aggressive and way too much of an overreaction to me. But just sharing what I see.
 
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