2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

[ZenMode]

Really not anything big. Hillary had a higher likelihood of winning.

 

[CFordUNC]

This is one red wave pollster I believe!

 

[theel4life]

 

[ole howard1]

On the topic of how many people have voted early....

I have done a little -- only a little -- phone canvassing for the Harris campaign in NC. I live in SC, but I've called people in NC. I spoke with two women who I believe are Black and they said they'll be voting for Harris but have not voted yet. One said she teaches school, if I remember correctly, and just hasn't had time yet, and the other lady seemed to me to possibly be emphatic about voting on election day.

That isn't much data to go on, obviously. But it is a reminder that people have a variety of reasons for not taking advantage of early voting.

Oh, and I spoke with a woman who I believe is white, and she said she's for Harris but hasn't had a chance to vote yet because of her work schedule.

 

[DrillAndFillHeel]

Lots of polls is seems have Trump ahead of Harris in PA. That’s worrisome to me. Isn’t it something like whoever wins PA has 85% chance of winning the election?

 

[nycfan]

 

[uncjhodges]

 

[Rock]

Lots of polls is seems have Trump ahead of Harris in PA. That’s worrisome to me. Isn’t it something like whoever wins PA has 85% chance of winning the election?

80%. The data in Pennsylvania makes it seem like Harris will win.

 

[Geisterfahrer]

What is up with Nevada? Is it young bros? Wtf

 

[EyeballKid]

What is up with Nevada? Is it young bros? Wtf

Maybe a lot of Vegas service workers who misguidedly think Trump’s no-tax-on-tips plan is really gonna help them?

 

[Geisterfahrer]

Maybe a lot of Vegas service workers who misguidedly think Trump’s no-tax-on-tips plan is really gonna help them?

Or that he would ever even do it. A terrible idea that won’t see the light of day in Congress.

 

[HeelInTheOzarks]

Nevada turnout has apparently been high in rural areas for early voting and low in the cities. I wonder if that can somewhat explain the gender gap?

 

[aGDevil2k]

80%. The data in Pennsylvania makes it seem like Harris will win.

Are Pennsylvania polls really not good?

 

[Bigs23]

Are Pennsylvania polls really not good?

Certain ones.

 

[Duke Mu]

Morning Consult, YouGov Economist, Ipsos are the high quality LV polls that the pros trust. Harris is up 2-4% on those polls and the Battleground States are all margin of error. It's a tie.

Just like the Comey letter stuff, the polls have a phase delay on the impact of Trump's latest insanity, including the Nazi Party like it's 1939 MSG rally. We could see the blowback trends by the weekend.

In 2012 - polls leaned to Romney right before the election

In 2016, both Hillary and Trump believed HRC was going to win.

Trump underperformed as a candidate and influencer in 2018, 2020, 2022.

It's a sprint to the finish.

 

[Duke Mu]

Nevada turnout has apparently been high in rural areas for early voting and low in the cities. I wonder if that can somewhat explain the gender gap?

Cacti and jackrabbits live in rural Nevada. Most of the humans are old and gnarly. Nevada is the 2nd least rural state.

 

[nycfan]

I don’t see Robinson getting only 31% of the vote even in the current state of affairs, but if it ever could happen to a major party candidate, I guess this is the one.

 

[nycfan]

 

[nycfan]

Harris Makes Her Stand in the Suburbs

“Kamala Harris is counting on suburban voters to do what they’ve done since Donald Trump won the presidency in 2016: reject him,” Politico reports. “It may be the single most important piece of her electoral

politicalwire.com

“… The latest Wall Street Journal poll found Harris leading among suburban voters by 7 percentage points, while a Reuters/Ipsos analysis showed the vice president winning suburban households by 6 points.”

 

[nycfan]

Latest Swing State Polls

ARIZONA: Harris 48%, Trump 47% (CNN) MICHIGAN Harris 47%, Trump 44% (Detroit News) Trump 49%, Harris 48% (Emerson College) Harris 52%, Trump 47% (Susquehanna) NEVADA Trump 48%, Harris 47% (CNN) NORTH CAROLINA Harris 47%, Trump

politicalwire.com