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Need a big kick in Black turnout today and Tuesday, or so it seems.Unaffiliated passes Dems. Turnout disparity between D/R/U still looking good
2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden
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lawtig02
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I really haven’t thought about this so you may be right but why would low propensity voters favor Allred in this election? Especially in a state like TX where abortion is a MASSIVE motivating issue.
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Texas Republicans lead early turnout by more than a million, early vote data suggests
The biggest share of voters, however, are those who have either voted in both parties’ primaries or have no primary voting history at all.
www.kxan.com
Texas Republicans lead early turnout by more than a million, early vote data suggests
“Nearly seven million Texans have already voted — nearly a third of all registered voters in the state — and their voting histories suggest Republicans are turning out much more than Democrats.
As of Wednesday afternoon, 3,029,470 early voters had previously voted in Republican primaries and have no history of voting in Democratic primaries, according to voting data analyst Dr. Ross Hunt. A total of 1,931,949 early voters had only voted in previous Democratic primaries, and 1,820,739 voters were classified as independents, meaning they have history of voting in both or neither parties’ primaries.
That history suggests those voters came into the voting booth with a strong partisan lean, though it cannot definitively predict which candidates they prefer.
Based on that data, analysts believe that Republicans have an early vote lead of about 1.1 million votes.
“If that number sounds large… it is large. That is much more than we’ve seen in previous elections,” Dr. Ross Hunt with the Republican consulting firm Murphy Nasica said. “A lot of this has to do with building up numbers over time… every day that passes, that vote remains net Republican. It was at least 7% net Republican yesterday. The Republicans just continue to add to their lead.”
The biggest share of voters, however, are those who have either voted in both parties’ primaries or have no primary voting history at all — those voters total up to more than 2.3 million. …”
lightbluenc
Esteemed Member
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Yep. 18.6 in 2020, need a bump today and hoping there’s a push for election day.
Texas also had 7 more days of in-person early voting in 2020. Going to be some temporal changes in terms of when various groups vote.
Exhibit #47 as to why analyzing the early vote doesn't tell you much other than there are people voting
lightbluenc
Esteemed Member
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Yeah they had a week extra because of the pandemic and then the Rs there made it way more difficult for folks to vote after that.
lawtig02
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lawtig02
Inconceivable Member
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Not sure it’s that simple but there’s definitely a reason both candidates will be in Pittsburgh Monday.
CallMeTyler
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Texas is pathetic.
superrific
Master of the ZZLverse
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Statewide voter demographics 2020:
With all due respect, if you're going to post a tweet from some obscure person, could you explain who that person is? There is nothing about Spencer Hakiman's bio that suggests he is doing anything differently than we are -- i.e. just eyeballing numbers and scratching on cocktail napkins. Maybe I'm wrong and he's someone in the know.
I just don't think it's helpful to post random stuff. Someone posted that 400K firewall thing, and I had thought it came from the campaign somehow, but really it was a 23 year old banging on a spreadsheet.
So, is it too much to ask to describe the source. I mean, "random guy but funny" is fine. As is "this random guy thinks 60% in Allegheny is it."
Note that the margin in 2020 was almost exactly 60-40. So this guy almost surely picked that data point, made it the O/U line and sent it into the ether.
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Back to the sign game: I have now seen more Trump signs in yards in Charlotte during this election than I did in 2016 or 2020. Back in 2016 and 2020, I saw between 10 and 15 Trump signs in yards. This year, I’ve seen well over 30. They are vastly outnumbered by Harris/Walz signs by at least a 5:1 ratio. But it is amazing to me that I’ve seen so many more Trump signs than in the past, as there are even more reasons now to be embarrassed by admitting you support Trump than there were in previous elections.
On a related note, I parked near a house today that had a Trump sign in its yard and also had a Mark Robinson sign in its yard. That is the first and only Mark Robinson sign I have seen in anyone’s yard in Charlotte this year.
On a related note, I parked near a house today that had a Trump sign in its yard and also had a Mark Robinson sign in its yard. That is the first and only Mark Robinson sign I have seen in anyone’s yard in Charlotte this year.
lightbluenc
Esteemed Member
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Drive west for half an hour and alllll you see is trump and mark Robinson signs.
I’ve seen one Harris sign and probably 50+ trump/Robinson. It gets really discouraging out here in the country
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My experience in Charlotte has been the complete opposite. Over the last 20+ years or so, have lived in Plaza Midwood, Park Rd area and now live in Elizabeth. Granted these are strong Dem areas but 2016 and 2020 I’d see signs for Trump In the 20% range. Driving in these areas the last couple of months and I have seen 2-3 houses with Trump. That’s it. They were HUGE Trump displays but still. The rest are Dem, e.g. Harris/Walz, Stein, Jackson etc. Where I see all the Trump signs are on public grounds like grass medians or outside shopping centers.