2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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nycfan said:
A million behind 2020 at this same point (going into the last day of early voting, not going into Election Day) means potentially a lot fewer votes this cycle, which suggests the low propensity blue turnout for Allred isn’t turning out.

Of course it could mean that Republicans are depressed by the awfulness of what their one-party state has wrought but Texas is a low turnout state these days and a lot of people there don’t see the point of bothering in the face of what looks like overwhelming odds.
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Ok, ouch…I read that wrong. I know flipping TX (POTUS or Senate) has always been kind of a mirage, but was hoping Dems would be driving higher turnout than that.
 
nycfan said:
A million behind 2020 at this same point (going into the last day of early voting, not going into Election Day) means potentially a lot fewer votes this cycle, which suggests the low propensity blue turnout for Allred isn’t turning out.

Of course it could mean that Republicans are depressed by the awfulness of what their one-party state has wrought but Texas is a low turnout state these days and a lot of people there don’t see the point of bothering in the face of what looks like overwhelming odds.
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I really haven’t thought about this so you may be right but why would low propensity voters favor Allred in this election? Especially in a state like TX where abortion is a MASSIVE motivating issue.
 
heelinhell said:
not challenging you but wondering why you think the early voting number is a good sign for Cruz ?
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www.kxan.com

Texas Republicans lead early turnout by more than a million, early vote data suggests

The biggest share of voters, however, are those who have either voted in both parties’ primaries or have no primary voting history at all.
www.kxan.com

Texas Republicans lead early turnout by more than a million, early vote data suggests​


“Nearly seven million Texans have already voted — nearly a third of all registered voters in the state — and their voting histories suggest Republicans are turning out much more than Democrats.

As of Wednesday afternoon, 3,029,470 early voters had previously voted in Republican primaries and have no history of voting in Democratic primaries, according to voting data analyst Dr. Ross Hunt. A total of 1,931,949 early voters had only voted in previous Democratic primaries, and 1,820,739 voters were classified as independents, meaning they have history of voting in both or neither parties’ primaries.

That history suggests those voters came into the voting booth with a strong partisan lean, though it cannot definitively predict which candidates they prefer.


Based on that data, analysts believe that Republicans have an early vote lead of about 1.1 million votes.

“If that number sounds large… it is large. That is much more than we’ve seen in previous elections,” Dr. Ross Hunt with the Republican consulting firm Murphy Nasica said. “A lot of this has to do with building up numbers over time… every day that passes, that vote remains net Republican. It was at least 7% net Republican yesterday. The Republicans just continue to add to their lead.”

The biggest share of voters, however, are those who have either voted in both parties’ primaries or have no primary voting history at all — those voters total up to more than 2.3 million. …”
 
RockyMtnHoo said:
Ok, ouch…I read that wrong. I know flipping TX (POTUS or Senate) has always been kind of a mirage, but was hoping Dems would be driving higher turnout than that.
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Texas also had 7 more days of in-person early voting in 2020. Going to be some temporal changes in terms of when various groups vote.

Exhibit #47 as to why analyzing the early vote doesn't tell you much other than there are people voting
 
heel17 said:
Texas also had 7 more days of in-person early voting in 2020. Going to be some temporal changes in terms of when various groups vote.

Exhibit #47 as to why analyzing the early vote doesn't tell you much other than there are people voting
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Yeah they had a week extra because of the pandemic and then the Rs there made it way more difficult for folks to vote after that.
 
nycfan said:


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Statewide voter demographics 2020:

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With all due respect, if you're going to post a tweet from some obscure person, could you explain who that person is? There is nothing about Spencer Hakiman's bio that suggests he is doing anything differently than we are -- i.e. just eyeballing numbers and scratching on cocktail napkins. Maybe I'm wrong and he's someone in the know.

I just don't think it's helpful to post random stuff. Someone posted that 400K firewall thing, and I had thought it came from the campaign somehow, but really it was a 23 year old banging on a spreadsheet.

So, is it too much to ask to describe the source. I mean, "random guy but funny" is fine. As is "this random guy thinks 60% in Allegheny is it."

Note that the margin in 2020 was almost exactly 60-40. So this guy almost surely picked that data point, made it the O/U line and sent it into the ether.
 
Back to the sign game: I have now seen more Trump signs in yards in Charlotte during this election than I did in 2016 or 2020. Back in 2016 and 2020, I saw between 10 and 15 Trump signs in yards. This year, I’ve seen well over 30. They are vastly outnumbered by Harris/Walz signs by at least a 5:1 ratio. But it is amazing to me that I’ve seen so many more Trump signs than in the past, as there are even more reasons now to be embarrassed by admitting you support Trump than there were in previous elections.

On a related note, I parked near a house today that had a Trump sign in its yard and also had a Mark Robinson sign in its yard. That is the first and only Mark Robinson sign I have seen in anyone’s yard in Charlotte this year.
 
Icky Mettle said:
Back to the sign game: I have now seen more Trump signs in yards in Charlotte during this election than I did in 2016 or 2020. Back in 2016 and 2020, I saw between 10 and 15 Trump signs in yards. This year, I’ve seen well over 30. They are vastly outnumbered by Harris/Walz signs by at least a 5:1 ratio. But it is amazing to me that I’ve seen so many more Trump signs than in the past, as there are even more reasons now to be embarrassed by admitting you support Trump than there were in previous elections.

On a related note, I parked near a house today that had a Trump sign in its yard and also had a Mark Robinson sign in its yard. That is the first and only Mark Robinson sign I have seen in anyone’s yard in Charlotte this year.
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Drive west for half an hour and alllll you see is trump and mark Robinson signs.

I’ve seen one Harris sign and probably 50+ trump/Robinson. It gets really discouraging out here in the country
 
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