Welcome to our community

Be apart of something great, join today!

Register Log in

2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

  • Thread starter Thread starter nycfan
  • Start date Start date
  • Replies: 6K
  • Views: 183K
  • Politics 
Counter-argument about herding





Pollsters like their exclamation points.

school house rock wow GIF
 
RockyMtnHoo said:
Wouldn’t that mean TX is on pace for about 500K more votes this year? I would think that’s not a good thing for Cruz.
Click to expand...
A million behind 2020 at this same point (going into the last day of early voting, not going into Election Day) means potentially a lot fewer votes this cycle, which suggests the low propensity blue turnout for Allred isn’t turning out.

Of course it could mean that Republicans are depressed by the awfulness of what their one-party state has wrought but Texas is a low turnout state these days and a lot of people there don’t see the point of bothering in the face of what looks like overwhelming odds.
 
nycfan said:
A million behind 2020 at this same point (going into the last day of early voting, not going into Election Day) means potentially a lot fewer votes this cycle, which suggests the low propensity blue turnout for Allred isn’t turning out.

Of course it could mean that Republicans are depressed by the awfulness of what their one-party state has wrought but Texas is a low turnout state these days and a lot of people there don’t see the point of bothering in the face of what looks like overwhelming odds.
Click to expand...
Ok, ouch…I read that wrong. I know flipping TX (POTUS or Senate) has always been kind of a mirage, but was hoping Dems would be driving higher turnout than that.
 
nycfan said:
A million behind 2020 at this same point (going into the last day of early voting, not going into Election Day) means potentially a lot fewer votes this cycle, which suggests the low propensity blue turnout for Allred isn’t turning out.

Of course it could mean that Republicans are depressed by the awfulness of what their one-party state has wrought but Texas is a low turnout state these days and a lot of people there don’t see the point of bothering in the face of what looks like overwhelming odds.
Click to expand...
I really haven’t thought about this so you may be right but why would low propensity voters favor Allred in this election? Especially in a state like TX where abortion is a MASSIVE motivating issue.
 
heelinhell said:
not challenging you but wondering why you think the early voting number is a good sign for Cruz ?
Click to expand...
www.kxan.com

Texas Republicans lead early turnout by more than a million, early vote data suggests

The biggest share of voters, however, are those who have either voted in both parties’ primaries or have no primary voting history at all.
www.kxan.com

Texas Republicans lead early turnout by more than a million, early vote data suggests​


“Nearly seven million Texans have already voted — nearly a third of all registered voters in the state — and their voting histories suggest Republicans are turning out much more than Democrats.

As of Wednesday afternoon, 3,029,470 early voters had previously voted in Republican primaries and have no history of voting in Democratic primaries, according to voting data analyst Dr. Ross Hunt. A total of 1,931,949 early voters had only voted in previous Democratic primaries, and 1,820,739 voters were classified as independents, meaning they have history of voting in both or neither parties’ primaries.

That history suggests those voters came into the voting booth with a strong partisan lean, though it cannot definitively predict which candidates they prefer.


Based on that data, analysts believe that Republicans have an early vote lead of about 1.1 million votes.

“If that number sounds large… it is large. That is much more than we’ve seen in previous elections,” Dr. Ross Hunt with the Republican consulting firm Murphy Nasica said. “A lot of this has to do with building up numbers over time… every day that passes, that vote remains net Republican. It was at least 7% net Republican yesterday. The Republicans just continue to add to their lead.”

The biggest share of voters, however, are those who have either voted in both parties’ primaries or have no primary voting history at all — those voters total up to more than 2.3 million. …”
 
RockyMtnHoo said:
Ok, ouch…I read that wrong. I know flipping TX (POTUS or Senate) has always been kind of a mirage, but was hoping Dems would be driving higher turnout than that.
Click to expand...
Texas also had 7 more days of in-person early voting in 2020. Going to be some temporal changes in terms of when various groups vote.

Exhibit #47 as to why analyzing the early vote doesn't tell you much other than there are people voting
 
heel17 said:
Texas also had 7 more days of in-person early voting in 2020. Going to be some temporal changes in terms of when various groups vote.

Exhibit #47 as to why analyzing the early vote doesn't tell you much other than there are people voting
Click to expand...
Yeah they had a week extra because of the pandemic and then the Rs there made it way more difficult for folks to vote after that.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top